Pirates vs Astros Predictions & Player-Prop Picks (June 4)

• The Pirates and Astros duke it out in the rubber match of their three-game series Thursday evening
• Both teams have been scoring a ton of runs lately so that’s why I love wagering on the Over run total
• See the Pirates vs Astros odds, predictions, public betting splits and MLB player props

It’s the rubber match between the Pittsburgh Pirates (33-29) and Houston Astros (28-35) Thursday evening, after a 10-6 Game 1 victory by the Bucs and an 11-9 response by the Astros in Game 2. The MLB odds show that this game is a true pick’em, with both squads featuring -110 odds to win on the moneyline.

First pitch will go at 8:10 PM ET / 5:10 PM PT, and you can watch the duel on Sportsnet PT and Fox Sports 1. Keep reading for my analysis for this ball game, along with public betting splits, and my favorite MLB player props.

Pirates vs Astros Picks & Predictions

• Pick: Over 8.5 Combined Runs (-105 at FanDuel)
• Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-103 at Caesars)

It’s more fun to cheer for runs in a baseball game, and that’s exactly what I’ll be doing for tonight’s affair. The over 8.5 runs total has hit in eight straight Pirates games, and that’s occurred in seven of the last ten outings for the Astros. The Astros are sixth in home runs on the campaign, while the visitors are tenth. In terms of runs, the Bucs are fourth and Astros tenth, which supports my selection of over 8.5 combined runs.

With Pittsburgh trotting out a starting pitcher that’s competing in just his second MLB game since 2024, there has to some rust to knock off, which will hopefully mean more runs plating.

The Astros offense runs through Yordan Alvarez. He enters this matchup carrying a .316 batting average, 21 home runs (second in MLB), and a 1.075 OPS. He averages 1.145 hits per game and is up against Jared Jones, who I mentioned has just one appearance at the big league level since 2024. Alvarez has been on a tear this series, going 6-for-9, with one home run and five RBI, so I’m bullish on him going over 1.5 total bases.

Pirates vs Astros Starting Pitchers

The MLB probable pitchers show Kai-Wei Teng bringing a 2-2 record to the mound. He generates swings and misses effectively, posting a 9.41 K/9 while holding opposing hitters to a .221 batting average. Over his last ten appearances, Teng accumulated 30.1 innings with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

It’s been a long road back from injuries for Jared Jones, who surrendered five runs in 4.1 innings in his first MLB action since 2024 (elbow). He did punch out six Twins batters in that contest, allowing seven hits.

PIT vs HOU Season Statistics

Pirates vs Astros Odds & Betting Splits

Odds as of June 4 from Caesars. Click here for a Caesars Sportsbook promo code before betting on Pirates vs Astros.

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings on Your Next 10 Wagers!

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBDDYW

CODE: SBDDYW

SIGNUP PROMO

DOUBLE YOUR
WINNINGS

ON YOUR NEXT 10 WAGERS!

CLAIM OFFER

In the MLB public betting splits, an even 50-50 split is the case on the moneyline tickets, but 61% of the handle has been placed on Houston. A gargantuan 94% of wagers and 92% of the moola is on Over 8.5 total runs, which dovetails perfectly with my prediction.

Pirates vs Astros Injury Report

How to Watch Pirates vs Astros

TV Network: Sportsnet PT and Fox Sports 1 SCHN

Away Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Home Team: Houston Astros

Date: Thursday, June 4th

Game Time: 8:10 PM ET / 5:10 PM PT

Venue: Daikin Park

Location: Houston, Texas