World Cup Group F Expert Picks & Best Odds: Can Anyone Challenge Netherlands?
By Juan Pablo Aravena in Soccer News
Published:
Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup features the Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia, and Sweden. On paper, this is a group where the Netherlands should cruise their way into the Round of 32 rather easily. The Dutch side features one of the deepest squads in the tournament and doesn’t face much competition in the race to secure the top spot in the zone.
Odds to win World Cup Group F
The Netherlands are odds-one favorites at -117, which represent a 54% implied probability. Japan sits second at +285, which is overpriced in my professional opinion; the Blue Samurai are one of the best teams in Asia, but they’ll be severely weakened at the World Cup without two of their best players, Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, who will be absent due to injuries. Bettors wondering how to pick World Cup underdogs should be wary of shorthanded Japan.
As for Sweden (+488) and Tunisia (+1900), they are considered long shots and shouldn’t be in the conversation for a first-place finish in this group.
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Schedule for Group F
Netherlands Should Cruise to Group F Win
The Netherlands make a strong case for being the best national team that has never won a World Cup, having lost the three finals they played, most recently in 2010 against Spain. Even though it’d be a stretch to consider the Dutch among the true favorites to win the tournament this year, they are still getting a ton of love from bettors. The World Cup public betting data has them as a top-ten team in terms of bet% and handle%. Books have them as the +2000 eighth-favorite in the odds to win World Cup.
Their collection of defensive talent is absolutely elite, with Liverpool legend Virgil van Dijk leading the way alongside Micky van de Ven, Jean Paul van Hecke, and Denzel Dumfries, to name a few. They cruised through the UEFA World Cup Qualifiers, going undefeated in eight matches (W6, D2) and averaging 3.4 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded per fixture.
The Netherlands might lack a world-class striker, but they have depth upfront as well. Donyell Malen had a terrific season with AS Roma on loan from Aston Villa, contributing 14 goals and two assists across 18 Serie A appearances in the second half of the season. Malen has been so good for Roma that he might even have an outside chance at being a World Cup Golden Boot odds contender if he carries his league form into the World Cup.
Japan’s Chances of Pulling Off Group F Upset
If you’re not fully convinced by the Netherlands, Japan would be the best candidate to pull an upset, but their lack of reliable options in the final third complicates their chances. They should still be solid value bets against the likes of Sweden and Tunisia in the World Cup game odds, but it’s hard to see them getting past the Oranje even if they’ve had good results of late. Japan went W7, D2, L1 in the final round of the AFC Qualifiers, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.1 goals conceded per fixture.
However, those numbers need to be taken into context. It’s one thing to face the likes of Indonesia, China and Bahrain, and another completely different to take on the Netherlands, Mexico or any other World Cup-bound team. They’re on a strong run of results, though, winning each of their last six competitive fixtures while keeping five straight clean sheets. The last time they conceded goals came in a 3-2 victory over Brazil on October 14, 2025.
However, that was when Japan had both Mitoma and Minamino available. Throw in the fact that Wataru Endo barely played for Liverpool in 2025-26, and the same goes for Hiroki Ito at Bayern Munich, and this will be a severely weakened Japan squad. They’re strong value to reach the Round of 32 and possibly further, but they won’t have enough in them to upset the Netherlands in the race for first place in Group F.
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Juan Pablo is a sports writer and betting analyst with over 15 years' experience in the industry. He is an expert in European and Latin American soccer, as well as NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL, college sports, and EuroLeague. He was born and raised in Chile and is fluent in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.
