Predictions & Player-Prop Picks for Pirates vs Braves (June 6)

• Bet the Braves moneyline at home today versus the Pirates
• With Spencer Strider and Braxton Ashcraft on the mound runs will be tough to come by
• Get the top predictions and player prop picks for Pirates vs Braves on June 6, below

The Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates continue their series today with first pitch set for 4:10 PM EST. The game will be played at Truist Park and broadcast on regional sports networks. After a 6-3 Braves win yesterday, highlighted by a Mauricio Dubón home run, the home team sits at 42-21 and is the rightful favorite in the MLB odds.

The Pirates enter at 34-29, cast as road underdogs despite playing error-free defense in their recent defeat. With Ronald Acuña Jr and Matt Olson backing probable starter Spencer Strider, the Pirates will counter with Braxton Ashcraft.

Below, you’ll find the top predictions and player prop picks for the Pirates vs Braves matchup on June 6th.

Predictions for Pirates vs Braves

• Braves Moneyline (-112 at Caesars)
• Under 8.5 Runs (-115 at Bet365)

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My favorite bets this afternoon are the Braves moneyline and under 8.5 runs. Atlanta boasts a distinct statistical advantage in run prevention over the Pirates. The Braves’ pitching staff has compiled a 3.22 team ERA this season. That noticeably outperforms the Pirates’ 4.04 ERA per the MLB starting lineups data. This elite run prevention is the primary reason the Braves are a top World Series odds contender and own the best record in baseball.

Pirates vs Braves Stats

At the plate, the Braves make consistently hard contact, leading with an 89.5 mph average exit velocity. Olson is a premier run producer, slugging .552 with 47 RBIs and 17 home runs. Meanwhile, the Pirates average 4.61 runs per game on the road by creating chaos on the basepaths, stealing 0.94 bases per game.

Despite the Pirates’ aggressive baserunning, I am fading a high-scoring environment. Given the high strikeout capabilities of both probable starters, leaning toward a low-scoring game is my logical complementary play. Strider takes the mound for the Braves with an 11.61 K/9 rate and a .202 opponent batting average.

Ashcraft counters for the Pirates with a sparkling 2.77 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 9.76 K/9 across 74.2 innings. Ashcraft averages 6.27 innings per start recently. Because of his elite command and high strikeout floor, there’s value in his K prop as I’ll detail below.

Spencer Strider vs Braxton Ashcraft Stats

Strider possesses electric velocity, but command issues and the long ball have hindered his run prevention. He has surrendered 1.74 home runs per nine innings while walking batters at a problematic 4.94 BB/9 clip over his last 10 appearances.

Ashcraft has thrived by complementing his strikeout abilities with impeccable control. Over his last 62.2 innings, the right-hander boasts a 1.87 BB/9 and a 10.05 K/9 rate. By limiting free passes, he routinely works deep into games.

Odds for Pirates vs Braves

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Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Braves

• Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (+114 on DraftKings)
• Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118 on DraftKings)

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Moving over to the MLB props market, where my first target is Ashcraft over 5.5 strikeouts. He’s cleared that mark in eight of his last 11 starts, and is fresh off a dominant 11 K performance last time out. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, he’s never faced the Braves but he is averaging over 7 strikeouts per road start since April 1st.

I’m also betting over 1.5 total bases for Olson. He’s got multi-hit games in three of his past four outings, and leads Atlanta in home runs, RBI, slugging and WAR.