Dodgers vs Pirates Picks & Player Props to Bet (Lauer vs Skenes)

• The Dodgers are rarely an underdog, but they are tonight
• Paul Skenes takes the ball for the Pirates
• Keep reading for my Dodgers vs Pirates picks and prop bets

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (42-24) travel to PNC Park to open a highly anticipated series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-32). First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday, June 9, in Pittsburgh. I am looking at a fascinating matchup between two teams with contrasting recent results.

Los Angeles enters this contest seeking a bounce-back effort following a narrow 13-5 defeat to the Los Angeles Angels. The Pirates are also looking to bounce back after a weekend sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves.

The Dodgers are a ridiculous -60000 in 2026 National League playoff odds while the Pirates sit at +168. In April, the Pirates were as close as +115, but their inconsistent play has cost them. Continue reading for my Dodgers vs Pirates picks and player props to bet.

Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction & Picks

When evaluating the statistical profile for this matchup, the Dodgers hold distinct advantages in almost every macro category. Their pitching staff boasts a 3.17 team ERA and a strong 1.07 WHIP. Offensively, Los Angeles outpaces Pittsburgh with a .798 OPS and 345 total runs.

Based on this baseline, my confident prediction is the Dodgers on the Moneyline (+100, FanDuel). Additionally, the elite starting pitching on both sides points heavily toward the Under 8.5 runs (-110, BetMGM) for the game total. I expect runs to be at a premium tonight.

Los Angeles has delivered consistently for backers when favored, posting a 62.9% win rate (39-23) in that role. That means they are 3-1 as underdogs, like they are tonight. Furthermore, game totals have heavily trended toward the under for the Dodgers, with the over cashing in just 39.4% of their matchups this season.

I am also targeting the prop market for extra value. Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135, Sports Interaction) is my top player prop. The reigning Cy Young has pitched to a 2.83 ERA over 70.0 innings while generating an elite 10.54 K/9. He possesses the pure swing-and-miss stuff to eclipse seven strikeouts.

I am fading the opposing starter, Eric Lauer, with under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings). Lauer has logged just 10.2 innings for the Dodgers this season and sports a low 4.22 K/9. He relies on contact rather than raw stuff, making a five-strikeout performance highly improbable.

Lauer vs Skenes

This chart only includes Lauer’s appearances as a Dodger.

Lauer draws the start for the Dodgers in just his third appearance of the season. Through 10.2 innings, the left-hander has suppressed runs effectively, evidenced by his 2.53 ERA. However, his 5.17 FIP suggests regression is looming due to his exceptionally low strikeout rate.

On the other side, Skenes has been dominant for the Pirates. Despite carrying a modest 6-5 record, he posts a minuscule 0.90 WHIP. His underlying 2.61 FIP indicates his success is genuine, backed by an elite 10.54 K/9 and an outstanding .194 opponent batting average.

Over his last 10 outings, Skenes has tightened his command even further. During this stretch, he averages 5.80 innings per start, striking out 10.86 batters per nine innings. This ability to stifle opposing bats makes him a daunting assignment for the potent Los Angeles lineup.

Dodgers vs Pirates Team Stats & Matchup Analysis

To find the truest betting edges, I look past the macro numbers and isolate how these clubs perform in their exact environments. Comparing the Dodgers’ road metrics against the Pirates’ home metrics reveals a fascinating narrative.

The most glaring mismatch in this series opener lies squarely on the mound. Los Angeles deploys the best pitching staff in baseball, pacing the entire league with a 3.17 team ERA. Conversely, Pittsburgh operates firmly in the middle of the pack, ranking 14th in ERA.

However, a dive into the offensive splits proves why Pittsburgh is a live home underdog. When playing at PNC Park, the Pirates are a highly productive unit. They rank first in the league in home batting average (.276) and runs per game (5.61) in their own ballpark.

One distinct stylistic clash is speed on the basepaths. The Pirates manufacture runs at home, averaging 1.00 stolen base per game. Meanwhile, the Dodgers take a station-to-station approach on the road, stealing just 0.47 bases per game and relying on their .798 OPS to produce runs.

Dodgers vs Pirates Odds & Public Betting Splits

Oddsmakers had been projecting a dead heat for this series opener, setting both sides at a -110 pick ’em on the moneyline, but the line has shifted to Pirates -120 (Dodgers +100). For bettors eyeing the runline, backing Los Angeles to win by multiple runs offers an attractive +165 payout. Meanwhile, the home underdog Pirates are heavily juiced at -200 on the runline.

The total has risen from 8 runs to 8.5 runs. It is equally juiced at -110 on both sides.

Odds as of June 9, 2026, at 4:45 PM ET from BetMGM.

Analyzing MLB public betting splits provides a revealing look at how the public is approaching this matchup. The public is showing overwhelming confidence in the road team. Los Angeles commands a massive 82.5% of the total moneyline handle, backed by 71.6% of the betting tickets.

Because both the handle and ticket percentages are heavily aligned on Los Angeles, there is no distinct sharp versus public divide in the moneyline market. The betting masses are fully backing my official prediction on the moneyline.

Action on the game total is even more lopsided. A staggering 89.3% of the money and 90.4% of the tickets are pouring in on the over. This massive public consensus directly contradicts my under prediction, which relies heavily on the elite run-prevention capabilities of both starters today.

Dodgers vs Pirates Injury Report

While Los Angeles looks like a formidable roster on paper, their injury report reveals a team being heavily tested by attrition. The Dodgers currently have multiple players dealing with active injuries, severely impacting their lineup depth and forcing reliance on spot starters like Lauer.

Offensively, the Dodgers are dealing with impactful missing pieces. Outfielder Teoscar Hernández is sidelined with a hamstring strain, and catcher Will Smith was recently scratched with an undisclosed injury. Dalton Rushing will replace Smith at the catcher position tonight.

This (relative) lack of lineup length gives Pirates ace Paul Skenes a wider margin for error, allowing him to pitch around superstars without fear of facing a fully weaponized supporting cast. Conversely, Pittsburgh enters this series opener relatively healthy on the positional side.

For the Pirates, catcher Joey Bart’s placement on the injured list forces a backup behind the dish to catch Skenes’ triple-digit velocity. This is a minor detail that could lead to extra bases on balls in the dirt. However, Pittsburgh’s core game plan remains entirely intact.