Predictions, Picks & Betting Splits for Phillies vs Blue Jays on June 9

• Back the Phillies tonight to beat the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre
• With Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the mound, runs will be at a premium
• Get the top predictions, picks and betting splits for Phillies vs Blue Jays on June 9, below

The Philadelphia Phillies (35-30) and Toronto Blue Jays (32-34) continue their interleague series tonight at the Rogers Centre, with first pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM ET.

Philadelphia enters as a slight road favorite in the MLB odds after taking the previous matchup 5-2, powered by an Adolis García home run and a strong start from Cristopher Sánchez. Meanwhile, the home underdog Blue Jays are looking to avoid another loss after struggling to string hits together despite an Ernie Clement blast.

Tonight features a heavyweight pitching duel. Philadelphia hands the ball to Zack Wheeler, while Toronto counters with strikeout artist Dylan Cease. With elite arms on the mound, I’m predicting a low scoring contest. Keep reading to for a full breakdown, plus see the rest of the predictions, picks and betting splits for Phillies vs Blue Jays on June 9, below.

Predictions for Phillies vs Blue Jays

• Moneyline Prediction: Phillies (-106 at Caesars)
• Over/Under Prediction: Under 7.5 (-120 at Bet365)

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My two favorite bets tonight are the Phillies moneyline and the under, based on the pitching edges and offensive splits. While Cease is a top notch strikeout arm, Wheeler boasts a sparkling 2.31 ERA and a microscopic 0.83 WHIP across 50.2 innings, consistently avoiding trouble.

Cease operates with a higher 1.21 WHIP and 3.05 ERA. Furthermore, if this game comes down to the late innings, Philadelphia’s bullpen holds a slight edge with a 4.02 overall ERA compared to Toronto’s 4.05 mark. Philadelphia is 28-15 when favored this season, including a 6-1 mark over their last seven games in that role.

With Wheeler and Cease on the mound, runs will be at a premium. Both MLB starting lineups have hovered around league average, with the Blue Jays posting a .718 OPS at home and the Phillies sitting at a .624 road OPS. Neither team is consistently stringing together extra-base hits in volume.

Given Wheeler’s ability to limit baserunners, the Under is a very logical bet even though the game will be played in a hitter friendly venue according to the MLB park factors. The Over has hit in just 37.9% of Philadelphia’s games this season.

Zack Wheeler vs Dylan Cease Stats

Wheeler excels at keeping traffic off the basepaths with an elite .171 opponent batting average, allowing him to pitch deep into games. Conversely, Cease relies on his otherworldly strikeout rate to stifle offenses. While he surrenders more walks, his ability to blow pitches past hitters lets him escape high-leverage jams.

Phillies vs Blue Jays Stats

The most glaring mismatch in the Phillies vs Blue Jays stats is Philadelphia’s immense struggle to consistently reach base as the visiting team. They rank dead last in road batting average and OPS. However, they boast the second-highest away average exit velocity in baseball, meaning they hit the ball with authority when they make contact.

Toronto hits for a respectable .248 average in their own ballpark, but they lack impact power, ranking 25th in average exit velocity. With star sluggers facing off against Wheeler, they will need to string together well-placed hits rather than relying on overwhelming team power to blow the game open.

Picks for Phillies vs Blue Jays

• Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144 at DraftKings)

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Moving over to the the MLB props market, where I’m betting over 6.5 strikeouts for Cease. The righty has been a highly effective strikeout arm this season, generating an astronomical 13.36 strikeouts per nine innings over his 62 frames of work. Per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, the Phillies rank 30th in road batting average (.207), showing a susceptibility for going quiet outside of their home park. The math heavily supports Cease reaching seven punchouts, making the price tag well worth the juice.

Odds for Phillies vs Blue Jays

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Betting Splits for Phillies vs Blue Jays

As for the MLB public betting splits, the total has remained stagnant despite the fact that 86.3% of all tickets and 78.3% of the money heavily favor the Over. This steadfast line is a direct testament to the immense respect oddsmakers have for the pitching matchup.

In the moneyline market, there is overwhelming consensus. Bettors are laying heavily on Philadelphia, who commands 65.7% of the tickets and a massive 93.1% of the overall handle.

By recommending the Under in tonight’s pitching-heavy duel, I am fading the majority of the betting public and the money. If Wheeler and Cease bring their elite swing-and-miss stuff, going against the grain on the total should prove to be the sharpest play on the board.