Brendan Sorsby Next Team Odds: Top Landing Spots for QB in Supplemental Draft

• Brendan Sorsby next team odds are live, with Jacksonville and Detroit out front on Kalshi
• The Jets pull the heaviest betting action, even though they don’t lead the board
• Keep reading for the full Sorsby supplemental draft odds, plus my best bet and a longshot I like

The supplemental draft is usually an afterthought, but Brendan Sorsby has made this year’s version worth watching. The former Texas Tech quarterback chose it over a court fight with the NCAA, and that opened up a market on where he ends up.

Kalshi already has his next team priced, and the early money tells you a lot about how the league sees him. The quarterback-needy teams grab the headlines, but the smart money points somewhere else.

Keep reading for the full Sorsby next team odds, the top landing spots, and my two favorite picks.

Brendan Sorsby Next Team Odds

Prediction Markets

Brendan Sorsby's Next Team

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Jacksonville

51%

Detroit

46%

New York J

32%

Cincinnati

29%

Philadelphia

14%

Pittsburgh

14%

Minnesota

10%

Miami

9%

Tampa Bay

9%

Arizona

8%

Predict

At the time of writing, Kalshi gives Jacksonville a 51% chance of signing Sorsby, which is -104 in traditional terms. I don’t love the Jaguars at that price, and the same goes for most of the names near the top of the NFL Draft odds.

Detroit follows at 46%, with the Jets at 32% and Cincinnati at 29%. I’m fading most of that group, but the Lions are exactly the kind of team that should win this, and they’re my best bet.

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Odds as of today at Kalshi. New customers can claim the Kalshi promo code before betting any NFL futures. Every market settles No if Sorsby doesn’t sign before Sept. 15.

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Top Landing Spots for Sorsby in the Supplemental Draft

First, a quick word on the player himself. Sorsby is a 6-3 dual-threat who threw 27 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions and ran for 580 yards last season. PFF had him eighth in its 2027 class before the gambling mess.

The baggage is the catch. He bet more than $90,000 on college games, some of it on his own team, and no league polices betting like the NFL. That alone will keep the front office and the league involved before he signs anywhere.

Jacksonville Jaguars (51%)

The Jaguars top the board, even though nothing really points their way. Trevor Lawrence is locked in as the franchise quarterback, and Jacksonville didn’t add a passer this offseason. The 51% is more about roster math than need.

Detroit Lions (46%)

Detroit is the sneaky name on this board. Jared Goff is signed through 2028, but the room behind him is thin, and the Lions haven’t used a draft pick on a quarterback since 2023. A developmental arm makes sense for a team that can afford to wait, which is why the Lions sit second at 46%.

New York Jets (32%)

The Jets are the popular fit, and the need is there. Geno Smith is just a bridge, with a rookie sitting behind him. The problem is the cost. New York would rather save its 2027 picks for next year’s loaded quarterback class than spend a high one in July on a player they’ve barely scouted.

Cincinnati Bengals (29%)

Cincinnati is the toughest number on the board to explain. Joe Burrow is the franchise and there’s no quarterback need to speak of. The 29% reads as leftover love from Sorsby’s two big seasons as a Bearcat, more than anything tied to the Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers (14%)

Pittsburgh is a better fit than its 14% lets on. Aaron Rodgers re-signed for what he’s calling his final season, so 2027 is wide open, and Mike McCarthy has a long track record with young quarterbacks. If the number climbs, this is one to watch.

Arizona Cardinals (8%)

Arizona is the longest shot of the names on the board at 8%, even with some chatter around the fit. The Cardinals used a third-round pick on Carson Beck just a couple of months ago, so spending again on a quarterback this soon is a tough sell. The market has it priced about right.

My Sorsby Prediction

• Best Bet: Detroit Lions YES (46¢ at Kalshi)
• Value Bet: Philadelphia Eagles YES (14¢ at Kalshi)

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My best bet is Detroit at 46 cents, or +117. Goff is locked in, but Teddy Bridgewater is a 33-year-old stopgap and Luke Altmyer is an undrafted flier. Sorsby walks in as the best young arm on the roster, and he doesn’t have to play a snap.

The Lions are too good to draft a quarterback high, yet they still need a long-term answer behind Goff, and this is the cheap way to get one. His arm and legs fit a timing, play-action offense that spreads the ball around.

Culture seals it. A demanding but stable room under Dan Campbell beats some chaos franchise for a guy coming out of gambling rehab. At +117, give me the Lions.

For the longshot, how about the Eagles at 14 cents, around +614. Philly loves a value swing, and that front office has turned backups into draft capital before. They’d need the bid order to fall right, so it’s a true dart. But stashing a young arm for a mid-round pick is exactly the kind of swing a Super Bowl odds contender takes.

What Is the NFL Supplemental Draft?

The supplemental draft is for players who lose their college eligibility after the regular April draft. It’s rare. The league hasn’t held one since 2023, and nobody has been picked since 2019.

It runs as a blind-bid auction. Teams submit sealed bids by round, the highest bid wins, and the cost is next year’s pick in that same round. So a third-round bid on Sorsby costs a 2027 third-round pick.