NFL Starting QB Odds: Who’s Winning Each QB Job?

• Week 1 starting QB markets are live on prediction markets for every NFL team with an open camp battle
• Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray are heavy favorites, while Cleveland’s battle is a near coin flip
• Track every starting quarterback market and the latest odds movement in the widget below

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Training camp is where starting jobs get won and lost, and prediction markets now let you bet on how those battles shake out. Kalshi has posted Week 1 starting quarterback markets for every NFL team with a real competition brewing.

The widget below tracks the current odds, the contenders in each QB room, and how the prices have moved as camp news trickles out.

NFL Starting QB Odds

The board above covers every team with an open starting QB market, with odds from Kalshi and stats from Sportradar. Click “Compare Stats” on any matchup to see last season’s numbers side by side and check who’s actually producing before reading into the odds.

Right now, two races are basically settled, as Cousins and Murray both sit above 80%. The other two are tighter, especially Cleveland, where Watson and Sanders are separated by a few cents. Expect those prices to move as camp reports and injury news roll in.

New to these markets? Kalshi is a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook, so there’s no house setting a line. You buy YES or NO shares on a quarterback, and the price equals what traders think his chances are.

A QB at 68 cents is priced like a 68% favorite to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. Because each quarterback trades as his own contract, the two numbers in a battle can add up to more than 100%.

Starting trading today with a Kalshi promo code, or sign up at other top-rated prediction markets to lock in your NFL starting QB prediction.

NFL QB Battles to Watch

Atlanta Falcons

• Kalshi odds: Tua Tagovailoa 68% | Michael Penix Jr. 41%

Tua Tagovailoa has pulled away as the favorite, and the market lines up with what’s happening on the ground. New coach Kevin Stefanski values accuracy above all at the position, and that plays into Tua’s strengths. He’s also fully healthy heading into camp.

Michael Penix Jr. is the reason this isn’t over. He’s younger at 26, signed long-term as a former top-10 pick, and his price jumped more than 32% recently as traders bought the upside.

The catch: Penix still hasn’t been cleared from his November ACL tear, with camp weeks away. Tua took the lead on May 28 and hasn’t given it back, but a clean medical report could change this in a hurry.

Cleveland Browns

• Kalshi odds: Deshaun Watson 56% | Shedeur Sanders 45%

This is the tightest and most volatile market of the bunch. Watson led by a mile through late May, around 81%, but Sanders has chipped away in a hurry. By early June the gap had closed to a near coin flip.

Head coach Todd Monken plans to alternate both quarterbacks early in camp and won’t name a starter until things sort out. Watson held the inside track after minicamp, though he’s also coming back from a long injury absence.

Sanders made the Pro Bowl as a rookie despite shaky numbers. He’s the value play at 49 cents if he keeps climbing.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Kalshi odds: Kirk Cousins 83% | Fernando Mendoza 15%

The Raiders market is the most lopsided on the board, and it matches what we’ve seen on the field. Cousins has taken every first-team rep in OTAs, while No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza works with the third-team and rookie units.

New coach Klint Kubiak and GM John Spytek would rather not throw a rookie straight into a starting role. Owner Mark Davis has called Mendoza the franchise’s future, and Cousins has acknowledged as much.

Cousins even said he doesn’t want to start unless he’s the best option, which points to a bridge year. Mendoza can make it a race if he lights up camp, but the 83% lines up with bringing him along slowly.

Minnesota Vikings

• Kalshi odds: Kyler Murray 82% | J.J. McCarthy 20%

Minnesota signed Kyler Murray to a one-year deal in March, and the market believes he was brought in to start, not mentor. Murray is a former No. 1 overall pick who leads J.J. McCarthy in just about every passing and fantasy metric.

Kevin O’Connell labeled it an open competition, but the odds aren’t buying that.

McCarthy isn’t out of it. He’s entering year three, Tom Pelissero reported he won’t be traded, and he has a genuine shot. Still, his NFL résumé is thin, and the Vikings look built to win now. Unless Murray gets hurt or flops in camp, he’s the Week 1 starter.

How I Approach QB Battle Markets

Camp battles can be sharp spots to find value, because the public overreacts to a single practice report or a coach’s vague quote about open competition. I start with the depth chart reality – who’s actually taking first-team reps – rather than what a coach says at a podium.

From there, health usually matters most, followed by the staff’s track record with young quarterbacks. A veteran on a short deal almost always holds the early edge, but a healthy, high-pedigree rookie can flip a market once the pads come on.

Cleveland is the one I’m watching. It’s the only race where the gap is thin enough that a strong week from either guy could move things.

NFL Starting QB Odds FAQ

How do Kalshi starting QB markets work?

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market, so you trade YES or NO shares on a quarterback rather than betting against a sportsbook. The price equals the market’s read on his odds to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. You can also sell before the market settles, much like a stock.

Which QB battles are live right now?

Four markets are posted: the Falcons (Tua vs. Penix), Browns (Watson vs. Sanders), Raiders (Cousins vs. Mendoza), and Vikings (Murray vs. McCarthy). The board updates as new QB battles open up and as prices move.

Why do the two quarterbacks add up to more than 100%?

Each quarterback trades as his own independent contract, so the prices don’t have to total 100%. It’s normal to see a battle priced at 68% and 41% at once. Treat each number as a standalone read on that player.

When will Week 1 starters be decided?

Most teams settle their depth chart late in camp or through the preseason, so expect the biggest moves once the pads come on. These markets resolve on the official depth chart a team publishes for the week, plus injury reports and team announcements.

Where can I see the latest starting QB odds?

The widget near the top of this page tracks every live market and updates as prices move. It also breaks down each QB room and recent passing stats, so you can compare the contenders before making a call.

If you’re looking for other NFL futures, check out any of the pages below:

• Super Bowl Odds
• NFL MVP Odds
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Odds