NASCAR DFS Picks – Anduril 250 Projections, Lineup & Strategy
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- DraftKings is offering $100,000 to first place on a $20 entry for the Anduril 250 at Naval Base Coronado
- A fractured wrist, a potential relief driver, and a 37th-place starting spot have created one of the most fascinating DFS plays of the season in Christopher Bell
- Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Anduril 250
The NASCAR Cup Series has raced on superspeedways, short tracks, dirt tracks, road courses, and temporary street circuits.
This weekend, they’re racing on a military base.
The Anduril 250 takes place on a temporary 3.4-mile street course built inside Naval Base Coronado in San Diego. If that sounds like something a seven-year-old would create in a racing video game, you’re not alone.
The challenge for DFS players is that nobody really knows what to expect.
There are no previous Cup races at this facility. There are no historical lap charts. There are no crew chief notebooks filled with setup notes from previous seasons. Every team enters the weekend essentially guessing.
That uncertainty places a premium on position differential and recent form.
With only 75 laps scheduled, dominator points become far less important than they would be at a traditional oval. We’re looking for drivers capable of moving forward, avoiding mistakes, and bringing home solid finishes.
Here’s the NASCAR DFS lineup we’re building around for Sunday’s race.
Anduril 250 Expert DFS Lineup and Projections
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Anduril 250 DFS Strategy
Tyler Reddick ($10,200) – Start: 17th
The expensive piece of the lineup.
The model absolutely loves Tyler Reddick this week.
Reddick posted the ninth-best practice speed and enters Sunday’s race with an average projected finish of 2.82, ranking second overall in our projections.
Is that projection a little aggressive?
Probably.
Do we care?
Not particularly.
Few drivers have been better on road courses over the last several seasons. Reddick consistently finds speed in these situations, and he enters the weekend driving for a Toyota organization that has been unloading exceptionally fast race cars.
Starting 17th only increases the appeal.
Betting favorite Shane van Gisbergen appears to have this place figured out, which isn’t exactly shocking. The man treats road courses the way most people treat a trip to the grocery store. But if a caution falls the wrong way, a competitor cleans him out, or a military helicopter abducts him somewhere between Turns 7 and 8, Reddick has the talent and speed necessary to capitalize.
And if that happens, the tiny ginger could find himself in Victory Lane.
Christopher Bell ($9,500) – Start: 37th
This is where things get interesting.
Christopher Bell practiced 33rd and qualified 37th, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Bell continues to deal with the fractured wrist suffered at Michigan, and he wasn’t the only driver turning laps in the No. 20 Toyota during the weekend. Brent Crews also spent time behind the wheel.
Turning left is one thing. Turning both directions with one healthy wrist is a completely different challenge.
The good news is that Crews can absolutely wheel a race car.
The young driver captured the pole for Saturday’s O’Reilly Series event and was roughly an SVG-sized favorite before a late-race 23-car pileup wiped out half the field. If Crews ends up spending meaningful time in this car, we aren’t exactly downgrading expectations.
We’re not expecting Bell to dominate the race or lead a bunch of laps. That’s not the goal.
We’re buying 37th-place starting position and an average projected finish of 10.31.
The injury concerns should also suppress ownership, giving us a chance to gain leverage on the field while everybody else worries about the wrist.
Sometimes DFS is checkers.
This feels more like chess.
NASCAR DFS Picks: The Hendrick Stack
William Byron ($9,300) – Start: 27th
William Byron posted the 10th-best practice speed and carries an average projected finish of 13.87.
That combination works perfectly for DFS.
The public hasn’t been particularly interested in Hendrick Motorsports lately, but the organization has quietly started trending in the right direction over the last five races. The raw speed has improved, the execution has improved, and we’re beginning to see the results follow.
Starting 27th gives Byron plenty of position differential upside without requiring him to contend for the victory.
A finish near the edge of the top 10 would be more than enough to pay off this salary.
Chase Elliott ($9,000) – Start: 30th
We’re doubling down on Hendrick.
Elliott posted the 15th-best practice speed and owns an average projected finish of 17.3.
Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but context matters.
Like Byron, Elliott starts deep enough in the field that position differential becomes the primary source of fantasy production. He doesn’t need to challenge Shane van Gisbergen or Tyler Reddick for the win to become a winning DFS play.
We also anticipate some strategy from the Hendrick camp.
Street courses tend to create opportunities for creative pit calls, and few organizations execute race strategy better than Hendrick Motorsports when they’re on their game.
Byron and Elliott provide exposure to a team that appears to be improving while much of the DFS community continues focusing elsewhere.
Anduril 250 Value Plays
Erik Jones ($6,200) – Start: 38th
The model hates Erik Jones.
That’s fine.
Sometimes DFS isn’t about finding the perfect projection. Sometimes it’s about recognizing when starting position creates a floor that’s simply too attractive to ignore.
Jones posted the second-slowest practice speed in the field, which isn’t exactly encouraging.
His recent results, however, tell a different story.
Believe it or not, Jones owns the third-best @SpeedwaySteve2 “Race Score” (patent pending, probably) over the last five races.
Yes, that sentence surprised us, too.
At $6,200 and starting 38th in a 39-car field, Jones doesn’t need a miracle. He simply needs to survive a race where survival may be half the battle.
John Hunter Nemechek ($5,800) – Start: 28th
The model doesn’t particularly love John Hunter Nemechek either.
We’re playing him anyway.
Nemechek ranked 17th in practice, which is significantly more encouraging than his salary suggests.
The bigger story is the manufacturer.
Toyota has been bringing absolute rocket ships to the racetrack lately. Week after week, the manufacturer continues showing speed across multiple organizations, and we’re willing to bet that trend continues on a circuit where raw pace could be difficult to overcome.
At $5,800, we’re simply asking Nemechek to move forward and stay out of trouble.
That’s a reasonable expectation given the speed he displayed during practice.
Final Thoughts on the Anduril 250 DFS Lineup
Street-course races are often defined by chaos.
That’s exactly why we’re focusing on position differential and drivers capable of moving forward.
Bell/Crews, Byron, Elliott, Jones, and Nemechek all start deep enough in the field to provide significant upside, while Reddick gives us exposure to one of the strongest race-winning profiles in the garage.
If Sunday’s race turns into the survival test many expect, this lineup should be positioned to take advantage.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.