France vs Iraq Predictions, Picks & Injury News

• France enters its World Cup matchup today as heavy favorites to dismantle a vulnerable Iraq squad
• Back Over 3.5 goals given the superb French scoring efficiency
• Get the France vs Iraq predictions, picks and injury news, below

Group I play continues today at the FIFA World Cup, as 2018 champ France faces Iraq. France sits perfectly calibrated at the top of Group after a casual opening victory, while a desperate Iraq side stares down another early exit in the printable World Cup bracket. The action gets underway at 5 p.m. ET at Philadelphia Stadium in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

With superstars like Kylian Mbappe commanding the pitch, France arrives as an overwhelming favorite in the World Cup game odds against the road underdogs. Iraq dropped their opener and already look completely overmatched defensively.

Making matters worse for the underdogs, they are missing forward Mohanad Ali to injury, gutting whatever faint counter-attacking hopes they had. I see heavy discrepancies in how sportsbooks are pricing the side and goalscorer markets here. Let’s break down the France vs Iraq predictions and picks, along with the latest injury news.

France vs Iraq Odds

Prices from Kalshi on June 22, 2026. Get the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on the World Cup.

The odds board tells a brutal story, but Kalshi is slightly better on a few of the listed markets. France at 90¢ converts to roughly -900, beating the -1250 moneyline, while Tie at 8¢ converts to about +1150, narrowly better than the +1100 draw price. Iraq at 4¢ is roughly +2400, which is slightly worse than +2500.

For the total, Kalshi’s Over 3.5 at 51¢ converts to about -104, effectively a hair better than BetMGM’s -105. Ousmane Dembele at 45¢ to score converts to roughly +122.

As always, before making any wager on this tournament, check out the World Cup betting apps to shop for the best lines.

France vs Iraq Predictions and Picks

Prediction Markets

FRA vs IRQ Picks

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Over 3.5 Goals

51%

Ousmane Dembele 1+ Goal

45%

Tie

8%

Predict

I am attacking this game from three specific angles, ensuring every wager carries positive expected value (+EV). Because the traditional French moneyline sits at an unplayable -1250, I refuse to lay that kind of juice.

Pick: Draw (8¢ / +1150) at Kalshi

My official 3-way moneyline pick is a deep value sprinkle on the Draw. France has secured points and is one of the favorites in the World Cup winner odds, and Didier Deschamps routinely rotates his squad in low-leverage spots. With France consistently failing to keep clean sheets, a sleepy 1-1 or 2-2 result carries enough mathematical value to warrant a tiny wager.

Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (51¢ / -104) at Kalshi

This is my primary volume play. Both nations saw their first matches at this tournament eclipse the 3.5-goal mark. France poured on the pressure in their opener, registering eight shots on target. Iraq surrendered four goals in their first outing and showed zero defensive resistance.

France vs Iraq Recent Form

Since Iraq has no track record of stifling the French attack, oddsmakers accurately price the favorites to dictate the pace wire-to-wire. The lack of historical data actually reinforces my betting angles, as there is no “bogey team” narrative to worry about.

France vs Iraq Team Stats

The underlying metrics reveal a colossal gap in quality. While both squads average exactly 11 total shots, France ranks tied for sixth with 8 shots on target per game.

Iraq wastes nearly all of their possession, putting a tournament-worst 1 shot on target per match. If the underdogs cannot hold the ball to alleviate pressure, their defensive structure will inevitably break down.

Pick: Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer (45¢ / +122)at Kalshi

My favorite types of World Cup prop bets are in the goalscorer market, and Kalshi is handing us a gift. Dembele’s pace against a defense that spends 63% of the match chasing the ball is a mathematical mismatch. He’s an absolute steal at this price to find the back of the net.

France vs Iraq Injury News

The underdogs are severely shorthanded in the attacking third. Mohanad Ali is officially out due to an injury reported just before kickoff. Missing his presence is a devastating blow for a team that desperately needs an outlet to hold up play.

Winger Ali Jassim is also listed as doubtful. If he sits, Iraq loses their only dynamic playmaker capable of springing a counter-attack. These absences guarantee Iraq will sit in a deep defensive block, inviting endless French pressure. France boasts a fully healthy roster, allowing them to confidently commit bodies forward.