New Heavy Favorite Emerges in Kawhi Leonard Next Team Odds

• A new heavy favorite has emerged in the Kawhi Leonard next team odds
• The board flipped fast after a weekend of real trade talks between the Clippers and one of Kawhi’s former teams
• See the updated Kawhi Leonard next team odds at DraftKings and Kalshi below

The Kawhi Leonard market just turned upside down. A few days ago the Clippers were a comfortable favorite to keep him. Now there’s a new front-runner, and the number isn’t close.

The shift came after a weekend of serious trade conversations. Let’s break down the updated Kawhi Leonard next team odds at DraftKings, then look at how the Kalshi market moved.

Kawhi Leonard Next Team Odds

The Raptors are now a runaway favorite at -500 in the Kawhi Leonard next team odds, which translates to an 83% implied probability he suits up in Toronto next season. The Clippers have dropped to +400, the Mavericks slot in third at +800, and the Warriors and Spurs round out the top five.

Odds as of June 29 at DraftKings. This same market is also live on Kalshi, so it’s worth checking a few NBA betting apps and getting signed up before the line shifts again.

Raptors Surge to the Top

This is a complete reversal. Toronto opened well off the board and rocketed to the top after the Clippers and Raptors held real trade conversations over the weekend, per insider Jake Fischer.

The reporting has a deal centered on Brandon Ingram as the headliner, with Toronto preferring to keep RJ Barrett out of it. The reasons for the urgency are clear. Kawhi won a title with the Raptors in 2019, and Toronto is one of only two former teams he’d reportedly sign a long-term extension with.

Mavericks Jump Into the Kawhi Leonard Next Team Odds

Dallas is the new name on the board at +800. Mavericks president Masai Ujiri, who acquired Kawhi for Toronto back in 2018, has reportedly discussed a deal centered on P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson and draft picks.

The problem is draft capital. Dallas controls almost none of its own first-round picks for years, and there’s no indication Kawhi would extend there, which would make him a one-year rental. That’s why the Mavs sit behind Toronto despite the Ujiri connection.

Clippers Fall Down the Board

A week ago, the Clippers were the favorite to keep Kawhi. Now they’re a +400 underdog in their own pursuit.

Owner Steve Ballmer reportedly still doesn’t want to trade him, but LA hasn’t committed to the long-term extension Kawhi is seeking. That gap is what cracked the door open, and the market clearly thinks he’s on his way out.

Kalshi Market Backs the Toronto Move

The prediction markets moved in lockstep. On Kalshi, Toronto jumped 60 points to 71%, the biggest mover in the market.

Prediction Markets

Kawhi Leonard Next Team

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Toronto

71%

Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires

21%

Detroit

11%

Denver

6%

Atlanta

5%

Portland

5%

Charlotte

4%

Oklahoma City

4%

Dallas

4%

New York

3%

Predict

The flip side is just as stark. The “stays with the Clippers or retires” outcome collapsed from around 58% down to 20%, a 38-point drop. Dallas faded to 3%, and Golden State and Boston are sitting in the low single digits.

With free agency opening June 30, this is a market that can move again on a single report. If you like a side, it pays to check both the DraftKings price and the Kalshi market, since the two don’t always line up after news breaks.