Wimbledon Men’s Round of 16 Picks and Odds Today: July 5 Match Predictions
By Sascha Paruk in Tennis
Published:
- Djokovic’s baseline bona fides portent a straight-sets victory vs Safiullin
- Hurkacz’s elite serve will give Struff all sorts of problems
- See my three best Wimbledon picks and predictions for Saturday, July 5
The men’s singles tournament at Wimbledon is rapidly dwindling. Just 16 players will be standing when action starts on Sunday morning. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner headlines the slate against Shintaro Mochizuki, while Novak Djokovic looks to secure another deep run against Roman Safiullin.
The tighter matchups see Felix Auger-Aliassime squaring off with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, alongside Hubert Hurkacz battling Jan-Lennard Struff.
My betting card relies on historical grass-court metrics, hold percentages, and market inefficiencies. Here are my three best bets for Saturday’s Wimbledon Round of 16 slate.
Wimbledon Predictions & Expert Picks Today (July 5)
All three of these picks lean on surface-specific Elo edges, recent grass-court workload imbalances, and market pricing that does not fully account for form.
After Alexander Zverev’s 6.5-game cover against Marcos Giron, my Wimbledon picks improved to 10-6 (+3.64 units on one-unit wagers).
Safiullin vs Djokovic Pick: Under 37.5 Games (51¢ at Kalshi)
I am fading the public money on the total here and attacking the under 37.5 games at Kalshi, which is both two games higher than the total at bet365 and priced at longer odds (-104 vs -120).
The Elo table strongly supports the Djokovic side of this handicap/total read. Djokovic sits No. 4 overall in Elo at 2059.3 and No. 3 in grass Elo at 1924.9, while Safiullin is No. 70 overall at 1749.7 and No. 85 on grass at 1626.8. That is a massive 309.6-point overall Elo edge and a 298.1-point gElo edge for Djokovic.
The recent results profile strengthens the case that this is more likely to be a Djokovic-controlled match than a four or five-set grind. Djokovic has already handled this Wimbledon draw with wins over Wu Yibing, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Arthur Rinderknech, and his cleanest performance was the 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 dismissal of Tsitsipas – exactly the kind of set-by-set scoreboard pressure that keeps an under 37.5 ticket alive.
His 2024 Wimbledon run also included efficient grass wins over Vit Kopriva (6-1, 6-2, 6-2) and Holger Rune (6-3, 6-4, 6-2), reinforcing how quickly he can clear this number when he is landing first serves and controlling return games.
Safiullin deserves credit for surviving a brutal route to this stage – including five-set wins over Andrey Rublev and Botic van de Zandschulp before a straight-sets victory over Joao Fonseca – but that workload is part of the handicap. He has spent far more emotional and physical energy just getting here, and his prior matchup with Djokovic was not competitive: Djokovic beat him 6-3, 6-2 in Shanghai in 2024.
Safiullin’s grass form is real enough to respect, but it does not erase the ratings gap or the head-to-head evidence.
Hurkacz vs Struff Pick: Hurkacz -4.5 Games (51¢ at Kalshi)
In a battle of heavy servers, Hubert Hurkacz -4.5 games is my primary target. Laying -351 on a moneyline offers little actionable value, so I am isolating the -4.5 game spread instead. The Elo numbers support Hurkacz as the better player overall and on grass: Hurkacz is No. 52 overall at 1798.2 Elo and No. 38 in gElo at 1699.9, compared with Struff at No. 117 overall at 1694.2 and No. 89 in gElo at 1623.1.
That gives Hurkacz a 104.0-point overall Elo advantage and a 76.8-point grass Elo advantage. It is not as overwhelming as Djokovic’s edge over Safiullin, so I would not frame this as a mismatch, but it does support Hurkacz being the more reliable side to separate over best-of-five sets.
The recent grass-court results make the -4.5 games more attractive. Hurkacz has moved through Wimbledon with straight-sets wins over Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner, plus a four-set victory over Tommy Paul as a sizable underdog.
He also beat Andrey Rublev 6-3, 6-2 in Halle and, dating back to last grass season, showed the same high-ceiling profile with a Halle run that included wins over Flavio Cobolli, James Duckworth, Marcos Giron and Alexander Zverev before a tight loss to Jannik Sinner.
Struff’s current Wimbledon run is dangerous but much less efficient. He needed five sets to get past Sebastian Baez, then another five-set battle against Brandon Nakashima, before producing an impressive straight-sets upset of Daniil Medvedev.
That Medvedev result was superb but anomalous in the grander scheme of things. Struff’s broader grass history is more uneven: he lost to Nuno Borges in Mallorca and Alexander Bublik in Stuttgart, and has repeatedly lived in tiebreak-heavy, high-stress matches.
Against Hurkacz, that kind of accumulated workload matters.
Struff can occasionally match the velocity, but his defensive movement and return consistency are still concerns. Hurkacz should create more cheap holds, apply steadier scoreboard pressure, and capitalize if Struff’s legs dip after consecutive marathon matches.
I project Hurkacz to win with enough margin to cover -4.5 games.
Auger-Aliassime vs Davidovich Fokina Pick: ADF Moneyline (36¢ at Kalshi)
The grass-specific gap Elo gap between Auger-Aliassime and Davidovich Fokina is tiny – only 7.1 gElo points in Auger-Aliassime’s favor – which is much closer than the lopsided moneyline odds imply.
That is why I see a price-based case for Davidovich Fokina at +178, even if the raw overall Elo edge belongs to Felix. Davidovich Fokina has the rally tolerance, return game, and current grass rhythm to neutralize Auger-Aliassime if the Canadian’s serve gets streaky under pressure.
The recent result make the underdog case much stronger. Davidovich Fokina has not dropped a set at Wimbledon, beating Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, Fabian Marozsan 6-3, 6-0, 6-3, and Marton Fucsovics 7-6, 6-2, 6-3. That is nine sets won from nine, and the profile matters: he has already shown he can win one tight grass set, then turn that scoreboard pressure into quick separation once opponents start pressing.
His pre-Wimbledon grass form also supports the idea that this is not a random hot week. In Mallorca, Davidovich Fokina beat Adam Walton, Grigor Dimitrov, Marozsan, and Ethan Quinn in succession, including a clean 6-3, 6-3 win over Dimitrov. Before that, he added Queen’s Club wins over Cameron Norrie and Corentin Moutet. Put together, this is a sustained grass-court sample rather than one isolated week.
Auger-Aliassime has also been efficient through the Wimbledon draw, beating Alexander Shevchenko, Dino Prizmic, and Michael Zheng in straight sets. The concern is price, not form. His grass lead-up was less airtight: he lost to Frances Tiafoe in Halle after a third-set tiebreak, fell to Kamil Majchrzak in Hertogenbosch, and last Wimbledon included a five-set escape against James Duckworth before a four-set loss to Struff.
When Felix is serving at peak level, he can look untouchable; when the first-serve percentage dips, his matches can swing quickly. That volatility is exactly why I want the plus-money side.
Wimbledon Odds for July 5 (Men’s Singles)
Odds are from WilliamHill and bet365 as of publication time.
In the Moneyline and Game Spread columns, the first number corresponds to the first player listed in the Match column and the second number corresponds to the second player listed.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
