Braves vs Pirates Player Prop Picks for Waldrep vs Skenes

• Paul Skenes’ dropping velocity has made national headlines
• The Braves dropped their last two games
• Continue reading for my Braves vs Pirates prop picks

The Atlanta Braves travel to PNC Park to open a new series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 7, 2026, at 6:40 PM EST. You can catch the broadcast live on SportsNet PT and BravesVision. Both clubs faced different opponents in their previous outings: Atlanta dropped a back-and-forth affair to the Mets, while Pittsburgh routed the Nationals behind 11 runs.

Atlanta enters this contest sporting a 52-37 W-L record. Pittsburgh sits just above the .500 mark at 46-45. Despite the disparity in the standings, the road-underdog Braves face a steep climb against a home-favorite Pirates squad. Despite the above .500 record, the Pirates have +330 NL playoff odds.

That pricing stems heavily from the mound, where the inevitable Paul Skenes battles a potent, but fading, Braves lineup. Atlanta counters with Hurston Waldrep. I am diving into the data to find the best value for this National League showdown.

Best Braves vs Pirates Player Props & Predictions

I love diving into the prop market when two young arms take the bump. The sportsbooks show serious respect to Skenes, setting his strikeout line at 6.5. Waldrep faces a much lower 4.5 line.

Here are the official strikeout odds from FanDuel:

My first target is the Cy Young winner: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108, FanDuel)

Skenes misses bats at an elite clip, sporting a dominant 11.04 K/9 across his 97.0 innings pitched. His ability to maintain a 1.01 WHIP and 3.03 FIP keeps traffic off the basepaths, letting him pitch deep enough to cash this ticket. Skenes has above-average chase and whiff metrics while pumping in a huge repertoire of pitches.

Paul Skenes has been somewhat human this season. As a result, he is sixth in NL Cy Young odds. Skenes can be bet at +3500.

As a team, Atlanta has a 21.2% strikeout rate compared to the MLB average of 21.8%. Among the regulars, Austin Riley is the most prone to the strikeout, posting a sizable 29.1% clip.

Next, I am looking at the batter props. Here are the hitting lines from FanDuel:

Let’s lock in my next play: Matt Olson to Record 2+ Total Bases (+110).

The Braves first baseman is the focal point of this lineup. With a .546 slugging percentage and a robust .890 OPS over 48 at-bats, Olson consistently drives the ball into the gaps. He has tallied 47 extra-base hits this season, including 24 home runs. Getting two total bases at plus-money (+110) offers outstanding value for a slugger with his proven upside. He has cleared this line in three of four games.

Finally, I want a piece of the contact market. Pick 3: Michael Harris II to Record a Hit (-230).

Boasting a .306 batting average, Harris serves as a highly reliable contact threat. With an .847 OPS and a .508 slugging percentage, he rarely goes quiet for long stretches. His ability to hit to all fields makes him an incredibly tough out, validating these heavily juiced odds. I have zero hesitation pulling the trigger here. Harris has a hit in all six July games, going 12-for-28 (.429).

Batter vs Pitcher Matchups

Because both starting pitchers are relatively young, we have limited history between these specific lineups and opposing arms. Still, checking the historical data helps uncover situational angles before making our final bets.

Braves Batters vs Paul Skenes

Pirates Batters vs Hurston Waldrep

Olson has struggled mightily in his brief encounters with Skenes, striking out in all three of his career plate appearances. Dominic Smith has similarly fanned in both of his at-bats against the right-hander. Ozzie Albies and Riley are the only Atlanta hitters with base hits off Skenes.

On the flip side, Brandon Lowe is the sole Pirate with a registered at-bat against Waldrep. He made the most of that single opportunity by launching a home run. While these sample sizes are small, they provide a fascinating backdrop for tonight’s clash.

Injury Report & Roster Impact

Both teams enter this matchup dealing with significant injuries, though Atlanta fields a particularly depleted roster. Key playmakers are sidelined, drastically shifting my evaluation of this game.

Atlanta is operating without Ronald Acuna Jr., losing an elite power-speed combination. Without Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach, the rotation must lean heavily on inexperienced arms like Waldrep.

Pittsburgh loses elite exit velocities without Oneil Cruz. While their bullpen is missing some middle relief options, their situation is far less dire than Atlanta’s battered pitching staff. These absences heavily shape my read on the total runs and runline markets.