Costa vs. Durden Odds, Prediction & Betting Preview for UFC 329 Undercard

• Alessandro Costafaces Cody Durden in a striker-versus-grappler flyweight clash to open UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11th
• The market favors Costa, but Durden’s wrestling makes him a live underdog
• Read below for the Costa vs. Durden odds, my prediction and undercard best bets

Alessandro Costa and Cody Durden open UFC 329 as the first fight of the night, a clean-style puzzle between a heavy-handed pressure striker and a relentless chain wrestler. Costa took the fight on 10 days’ notice, which adds a wrinkle worth betting into.

Costa comes in on two straight early finishes, a first-round TKO of Matt Schnell and a body-shot stoppage of Stewart Nicoll. Durden snapped a four-fight skid last time out and slots back in as the live underdog he’s been for most of his UFC run.

Here are the Costa vs. Durden odds, my prediction and best bets for the UFC 329 Undercard.

Costa vs. Durden Odds

Costa sits at -235 in the UFC Undercard odds, which strips down to a 67% true win chance once you remove the juice. Durden comes back at +190, or 33%. The book expects Costa’s striking to overwhelm a wrestling-first opponent.

Round Betting Odds

The round board leans toward Costa doing early damage, with his Round 1 at +275 and a KO/TKO prop at +175. Durden’s plus-money routes all run long, which fits a grinder who wins on control time rather than finishes.

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Odds as of July 11th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC 329 or browse UFC betting apps.

Costa vs. Durden Prediction

My read starts with the gap between the price and the grappling. At +190, the market gives Durden a 34.5% chance. His 49.4% takedown rate says he has a dependable way to decide where this fight takes place.

Costa wants it standing, and his takedown defense should get stressed early. If Durden closes distance and gets to his hips, he can pin Costa down and bleed the clock across three rounds.

The counter is worth respecting. Costa took this on 10 days’ notice and has finished his last two inside the early rounds, so he’s the more definitive finisher. This is a live-dog play on the wrestling, not a lock.

• Primary Pick: Cody Durden Moneyline (+190 at BetMGM)
• Prop Pick: Cody Durden by Decision (+400 at BetMGM)

Costa vs. Durden Tale of the Tape

Durden’s whole game is offensive wrestling. His 49.4% takedown rate across 16 tracked bouts shows a consistent ability to put strikers on the mat and keep them there.

The control-time gap is enormous. Durden logged 12:32 of top position against Carlos Mota, while Costa’s best single-fight mark is just 1:24. That’s the difference between a grappler and a striker who visits the mat by accident.

Costa lands only 26.7% of his own takedown tries, so he’ll lean on his sprawl to keep this upright.

How to Watch Costa vs. Durden

UFC 329 streams on Paramount+ in the United States, with no pay-per-view charge. Costa and Durden kick off the entire card, walking around 5:15 pm ET / 2:15 pm PT.