Next Gen Air Yards: Spotting the Next Breakout NFL QB

Quarterbacks in the NFL are always going to get the majority of glory and blame. It’s a poor simplification of the game, and it’s exhausting to argue anything else, so this is just a reality that we live with.

But that doesn’t mean you can’t be a smarter fan and bettor.

Quarterback play is massively important, yes, but so much goes into their success. Are they getting bailed out by backs and receivers who gain most of the yards after the catch? Are they being let down by poor offensive line or receiver play?

This guide will help you sift through that as the 2026 NFL regular season nears.

What Next Gen Stats Measure QB Play

Judging a quarterback strictly on traditional stats is fun for fantasy football, but not a great way to really judge them.

A lot of those traditional stats have plenty of outside influence though, as a quarterback needs time in the pocket for receivers to come open, and those receivers have to catch the ball once they do. Receivers can also turn an average passer into an elite one, at least based on counting stats, by turning a short competition into a big gainer.

I looked at how much help QBs were really getting in 2025, based on the percentage of dropbacks they took in which they were put under pressure (bad offensive line play), the number of drops their receivers had, their air yards per game, attempt and completion (which takes yards after catch out of the equation), and their on-target passing percentage.

NFL Quarterbacks That Had the Least Help in 2025

A lot can go wrong on any one play in the NFL, but for a quarterback, there are two issues that are mostly out of their control: getting pressured and receivers dropping the ball.

For the latter, two quarterbacks were done absolutely dirty by their teammates a year ago, and Trevor Lawrence saw his Jaguars teammates drop 45 passes on the season, and Broncos receivers dropped 43 passes from Bo Nix.

These are far-and-away the “leaders” in this category, as Caleb Williams was third with Bears receivers dropping 29 passes. Shockingly, last year’s MVP Matthew Stafford had his receivers drop 28 of his passes.

The median starting quarterback was put under pressure on about 22% of dropbacks in 2025. Shedeur Sanders, meanwhile, faced pressure on 37.5% of dropbacks.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert had the worst time when it came to full-time starters, though, facing pressure on 30.3% of his dropbacks.

If you’re combining the two stats, Williams, Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes had it the toughest. Williams was pressured on 25.1% of dropbacks, which was fourth among regular starters, and his team’s 29 drops was third.

Goff faced pressure on 23.8% of dropbacks (sixth) and had 25 drops (tied for sixth), while Mahomes’ receivers dropped 27 passes (fifth) and he was pressured on 23.1% of dropbacks.

Which NFL Quarterbacks Are the Best Downfield Passers?

It should come as no surprise that Stafford led the NFL in completed air yards per game in 2025 with 168. He averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt, and 7.3 air yards per completion.

The only player who was arguably better down the field last year was Stafford’s main competition for the MVP: Drake Maye. The Patriots star led the NFL with 9.1 air yards per attempt in 2025 and was second in air yards per completion at 7.4, behind Lamar Jackson.

While the weak schedule argument followed Maye around all season, there’s no question that he earned his passing yards, and wasn’t simply relying on receivers piling up yards after the catch.

This year, Maye is adding AJ Brown to the mix, which should only help those numbers. Brown’s QB from a year ago, Jalen Hurts, averaged 8.99 air yards per attempt, which was second in the NFL.

Kyler Murray is the returning starter with the fewest air yards per attempt last season, averaging just 5.9, a far cry from the 8.9 that JJ McCarthy, the man Murray is replacing in Minnesota, put up. Not with a lot of success, of course, but he was at least trying to push the ball down the field.

Aaron Rodgers’ days as a gunslinger might be behind him, as he was second to last at 6 air yards per attempt.

NFL Futures Bets to Target

Now to turn this information into profits at the best NFL betting apps.

I’m targeting three NFL futures based on past quarterback performance, how much they’re willing to push the ball down the field, and the thought their teammates might offer a bit more help this season.

• Trevor Lawrence 4,000+ Passing Yards (+150 at theScore Bet): Lawrence went over 4,000 pass yards a year ago despite all the drops and being sacked 41 times. If things get marginally better for him in those two categories, there’s no reason to doubt that he’d get over the number again, especially considering his willingness to let it fly at 8.7 air yards per attempt.
• Jared Goff MVP (+3500 at theScore Bet): Here’s a longshot worth sprinkling some coin on after combing through all these numbers. Goff doesn’t air it out a ton, averaging 6.3 air yards per attempt, which is in the bottom half. But he has a 58% Air Yard Success rate, which is fourth best among returning starters, and suffered from 25 drops and a 23.8% QB pressure rate. Goff puts up massive numbers each year. The Lions are due for a turnaround thanks to some bad luck a season ago, and his underlying numbers would suggest his success is repeatable.
• Drake Maye Most Regular Season Passing Yards (+1500 at theScore Bet): Maye led all returning starters with his 9.1 air yards per attempt this past season, and had a 75.8 on-target percentage, which trailed just Brock Purdy and Josh Allen league wide. He’s adding downfield threats AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs to his receiving corps, which is only going to increase how often he pushes the ball down the field.