Blue Jays vs Yankees Best Bets, Props & Splits
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Blue Jays and Yankees begin a critical series tonight in the Bronx
- Alejandro Kirk owns New York pitching and is a value to beat his total bases prop
- Get the Blue Jays vs Yankees best bets, props and splits, below
The New York Yankees (72-55) return home to host the Toronto Blue Jays (63-66) at Yankee Stadium tonight, with first pitch scheduled for 7:05 PM EST. With the Yankees coming off a series sweep of the Orioles and the Blue Jays fresh off a victory over the Rays, this series packs plenty of postseason implications.
New York enters the series opener as a heavy home favorite in the MLB odds. They will send reliable starter Cam Schlittler (10-6) to the mound, while the road underdog Toronto employs a bullpen game starting with opener Mason Fluharty. While both rosters are dealing with heavy attrition, there is still plenty of firepower in the batter’s box to exploit. Keep reading for the Blue Jays vs Yankees best bets, props and splits, below
Blue Jays vs Yankees Best Bets and Props
When hunting for the best value in tonight’s AL East clash, recent player trends and situational splits point me toward a few high-value opportunities. Here are my top predictions for tonight.
Pick 1: Trent Grisham Ov 1.5 Total Bases (+170 at Caesars Sportsbook)
If you are looking to target the Yankees lineup in their home ballpark, Grisham offers fantastic plus-money value. The trend is undeniable: Grisham has gone over 1.5 total bases in 4 of his last 5 home games (80.0% cover rate). He also boasts an 82.0% cover rate on his hits prop over his last 11 games overall.
Fluharty has been highly vulnerable to contact, yielding a generous .286 opponent batting average and an inflated .364 BABIP. Grisham and the World Series odds contenders will get a favorable early look against this opener profile, making his +170 odds an exceptional value. He is seeing the ball like a beach ball right now, and I expect him to knock the cover off it tonight.
Pick 2: Alejandro Kirk Ov 1.5 Total Bases (+144 at bet365)
Alejandro Kirk has been a highly reliable source of contact, especially when taking his bat on the road. The statistical edge here is massive. Kirk is 3-1 versus a total bases over/under of 1.5 in his last 4 road games. Furthermore, he has gone over 0.5 hits in 6 straight games against New York, securing a flawless 100.0% success rate in that split.
On the season, Kirk is slashing a sturdy .282. His elite bat-to-ball skills provide a high floor for generating total bases. He has put 154 balls in play while striking out a mere 23 times all year. Given his impeccable recent hit streak against this divisional rival, taking the plus-money edge on his MLB Total Bases Props is a sharp angle.
Pick 3: Ernie Clement Ov 0.5 Hits (-182 at BetMGM)
Ernie Clement has been one of Toronto’s most consistent bats. The trend strongly supports this play: Clement has gone over 0.5 hits in 6 of his last 7 away games (86.0% cover rate). He is also 4-1 to the over on his hits prop across his last 5 games straight up.
While Yankees starter Cam Schlittler has been excellent this season, Clement has proven he can handle the matchup, batting .333 (3-for-9) in their historical meetings per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Combining his .285 season average and premium contact rates makes Clement a prime candidate to record a base hit.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Player Prop Odds
Odds as of Friday, Aug 21. Claim the BetMGM promo code now to get in on the action.
Ben Rice paces the field as the most likely player to go deep tonight. For Toronto, George Springer has heavily juiced odds just to record a hit. I suggest looking toward his total bases prop, where pushing past a single base vaults him into plus-money territory.
Cam Schlittler is trusted to carry the load, with a strikeout line set at a robust 6.5. Bettors who expect him to pitch deep into the 7th inning will love the juicy +142 odds on his 18.5 total outs prop. Meanwhile, Fluharty brings pure opener expectations. The books placed his outs line at a minimal 3.5, indicating he likely won’t pitch past the first inning.
Tonight’s environment at Yankee Stadium also shapes my betting card. Across 58 games played here this season, the park leans heavily toward the long ball. It averages 8.76 runs, 15.21 hits, and a staggering 2.72 home runs per game according to the MLB park factors.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
Odds as of Friday, Aug 21. Get the bet365 bonus code to bet on MLB tonight.
New York enters as a heavy -213 moneyline favorite despite glaring lineup holes. Toronto is catching +1.5 runs on the runline, suggesting oddsmakers expect a tight contest. The game total opened at a modest 7.5 runs with equal -116 juice on both sides, but early action on the under forced books to adjust the under odds to -122.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Splits
As for the MLB public betting splits, the action is completely one-sided. 78% of the moneyline bets and handle are on the Bronx Bombers, while 73% of the total tickets are taking over 7.5 runs.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
