Blue Jays vs Yankees Expert Picks, Props & Splits (Aug 22)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Blue Jays and Yankees continue their series this afternoon in the Bronx
- Under 7.5 runs presents excellent value given the pitching matchup
- Check out the Blue Jays vs Yankees expert picks, props and splits for Aug 22, below
The favored New York Yankees (73-55) host the underdog Toronto Blue Jays (63-67) this afternoon as the divisional rivals continue their series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET on YES and SNET. With New York sitting near the top of the MLB standings as the league’s sixth-ranked team, every win is crucial for their playoff positioning.
Meanwhile, Toronto looks to play spoiler. The Yankees enter the afternoon with momentum from last night, where they secured a tight 3-1 victory over the Blue Jays. I expect a similarly competitive atmosphere today as both clubs look to establish dominance. Below, I’ll break down the Blue Jays vs Yankees expert picks, props and splits for Aug 22.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Expert Picks and Props
When evaluating this divisional matchup, the pitching duel takes center stage. Toronto deploys Cy Young odds contender Dylan Cease, who has been spectacular this season with a 2.42 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an elite 13.14 K/9 rate over 137.2 innings pitched. The Yankees counter with Ryan Weathers, who brings a respectable 3.56 ERA and 9.40 K/9.
The true disparity lies in the bullpens. New York boasts a dominant relief corps with a 2.98 ERA compared to Toronto’s more vulnerable 3.73 bullpen ERA. Because the World Series odds contender has the bullpen advantage and a lineup featuring Ben Rice (34 home runs, .875 OPS), my pick is the New York Yankees on the moneyline at +100 at Kalshi. Make sure to claim the Kalshi promo code before betting today.
My pick for the game total is Under 7.5 runs at -144 at Polymarket. Despite the power in both lineups, the combination of Cease’s overpowering strikeout ability and Ryan Weathers’ solid form suggests runs will be at a premium early. With New York’s lockdown bullpen ready to handle the late frames, I expect a low-scoring affair.
Situational betting angles heavily support these predictions. New York has won 70.0% of their last 10 games outright. As a home favorite in the MLB odds, they hold a 66.7% win rate over their last nine qualifying contests. For the total, the under has cashed in 80.0% of New York’s last 10 matchups, heavily enforcing a low-scoring expectation today.
When looking at MLB player props, I am targeting a high-probability outcome based on elite strikeout metrics. Cease’s ability to generate swing-and-miss stuff makes him incredibly attractive against a New York lineup that is very strikeout prone. My top player prop is Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts at 54¢ at Kalshi.
Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease Stats
New York will hand the ball to left-hander Ryan Weathers to oppose Cease. Both pitchers have delivered strong seasons for their respective clubs, making this afternoon’s matchup one of the most compelling pitching duels on the current slate.
Weathers has been a highly effective and reliable presence in the New York rotation. The southpaw enters the game with a 13-11 record, a 3.56 ERA, and a solid 3.26 xFIP. While he allows more contact than Cease, Weathers still misses plenty of bats (9.40 K/9) and exhibits excellent command.
Over his last 10 games, Cease has posted a microscopic 2.08 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Opposing lineups have been virtually helpless, managing just a .142 batting average against him. Weathers has also pitched beautifully down the stretch, logging a 2.70 ERA over his last 10 appearances while limiting damage efficiently.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Stats
New York leans heavily on punishing the baseball, boasting an elite 89.2 mph average exit velocity that directly translates to 1.49 home runs per game. While their batting average sits near the bottom of the league, their ability to hit for extra bases results in a strong .750 OPS.
Conversely, Toronto takes a more contact-oriented approach. They put the bat on the ball efficiently, ranking seventh among away teams with a .246 batting average, but severely lack impact power. Toronto’s soft 86.7 mph exit velocity ranks 27th, resulting in a lackluster .683 OPS and just 4.09 road runs per game.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
Odds as of August 22, 2026 from Caesars Sportsbook. Start betting with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code now.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Splits
When reviewing MLB public betting splits, the moneyline market reveals interesting action. New York commands a robust 71.6% of the betting tickets, but holds a much narrower 52.9% of the total stake. Toronto is attracting 47.1% of the money despite garnering just 28.4% of the tickets, indicating some larger wagers are backing the road underdogs.
In the total market, bettors are heavily anticipating offense. The over is pulling in 71.1% of the betting percentages and 72.9% of the total money. By taking the under, I am actively fading the public ticket count and trusting the starting pitchers to keep runs at a premium.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
