UFC Fight Night Odds & Main Card Predictions for Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

• Anthony Hernandez meets Gregory Rodrigues in a ranked middleweight main event at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
• Hernandez is a -222 favorite at Bet365 with Rodrigues sitting at +180
• See my expert UFC Fight Night odds and main card predictions for Hernandez vs Rodrigues below

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The Octagon touches down at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento for a massive UFC Fight Night. The main card action kicks off at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+. A pivotal middleweight collision between No. 6 ranked Anthony Hernandez and No. 11 ranked Gregory Rodrigues headlines the marquee.

Bettors will find a wealth of angles to exploit on this betting board. Whether you prefer laying chalk on safe favorites or hunting for underdog value, there are plenty of options.

Read on for my favorite UFC Fight Night odds and main card predictions, best bets and long-shot picks, headlined by Hernandez vs Rodrigues.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Odds

Odds as of fight week at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

Hernandez enters as a solid favorite, reflecting his relentless grappling pace and cardio advantages. Heavy favorites like Anthony Wint and Carli Judice anchor the bottom of the card, but live underdogs like Sergey Spivac offer intriguing payout potential.

I priced every pick here at Bet365, but these numbers move fast on fight day. If you want to shop the board, a theScore Bet promo code or a BetMGM promo code gives you two more places to grab the best available price on each side.

UFC Fight Night Main Card Predictions

Hernandez vs Rodrigues Prediction

• Hernandez vs Rodrigues Pick: Anthony Hernandez -5.5 (-135 at Bet365)

Rodrigues is dangerous early, especially with his power, but the five-round pace is the concern. He dropped Jared Cannonier twice in Round 1 yet faded into a fourth-round TKO loss despite landing 93 significant strikes with only 17 seconds of control.

Hernandez has already handled this type of grappling and cardio test. He took Roman Dolidze down nine times, controlled him for 7:48 and submitted him in Round 4 after overwhelming Michel Pereira with 10 takedowns, 15:42 of control and 152 significant strikes.

Rodrigues can give him problems early with his physicality and elite grappling pedigree. He does not fight like it, but Rodrigues is one of the most credentialed grapplers in the UFC. I still trust Hernandez to survive the early storm in Round 1. ‘Fluffy’ has already broken down elite grapplers in Dolidze and Rodolfo Vieira, and Rodrigues’ resets get uglier once the fight turns into a grind.

If you want to back Hernandez, bet on him to cover the spread and dominate down the stretch.

De Ridder vs Dolidze Prediction

• De Ridder vs Dolidze Pick: Reinier de Ridder by Decision (+125 at Bet365)

De Ridder moving to light heavyweight is less of a concern due to Dolidze also being a former middleweight instead of a true 205-pound power threat. The bigger issue for de Ridder is usually fast, clean strikers who punish his sloppy entries, and that is not Dolidze’s main style.

Dolidze can compete in grappling spots, but his low activity is a concern. He controlled Christian Duncan for 7:07 yet landed only 10 significant strikes, and Hernandez took him down nine times before submitting him. At 38, the Georgian has clearly reached the twilight of his career.

De Ridder has shown he can bank minutes even when the fight gets messy, with 9:06 of control and 192 total strikes in his split-decision win over Robert Whittaker. His clinch volume, short strikes and control should win enough ugly minutes for a decision. Although ‘he ‘RDR’ has been a finisher at times in the UFC, Dolidze is difficult to finish on the ground, which has been de Ridder’s primary method of victory.

Spivac vs Petrino Prediction

• Spivac vs Petrino Pick: Sergey Spivac Moneyline (+125 at Bet365)

Petrino has the athleticism and power to make Spivac uncomfortable early. His takedown defense held up against Thomas Petersen, who went 0-for-8, and Petrino scored two knockdowns before finishing him in Round 3.

The question is whether Petrino can keep that pace once he tires. By the middle of Round 2, he often needs big resets and starts giving away time, and that is where Spivac can turn a scary athletic matchup into a clinch, trip and top-control fight.

Spivac is not the better athlete, but he is the more reliable minute-winner if the early knockout does not come. His wins over Ante Delija, Derrick Lewis and Augusto Sakai all show the same path: force clinches, make heavyweights grapple and take over as the fight gets uglier.

With what seems to be a five-minute window for Petrino to capitalize on his physical advantages, we are backing the more experienced veteran to rally in the final two rounds and win a gritty battle of attrition.

Jones vs Mederos Prediction

• Jones vs Mederos Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-140 at Bet365)

This should be high-output, but the finishing threat does not match the pace. Mederos has landed 112, 110 and 60 significant strikes in his UFC fights, but that volume has mostly produced decisions. Even when he has scored knockdowns, Mederos has not pressed on the gas pedal enough to truly threaten a stoppage.

Jones brings similar output with a wrestling safety valve. He landed 110 significant strikes against Axel Sola and also used eight takedowns in fights with Jeremy Stephens and David Onama, adding 6:03 and 9:01 of control in those two wins.

Whichever way it goes, this fight is almost guaranteed entertainment. But neither fighter appears to have much of an upper-hand in what has the making of a true back-and-forth chess match.

I also trust the defense and IQ on both sides more than the finishing upside. With both fighters durable and capable of managing minutes, I like this to stay competitive and reach the cards in a thrilling 15-minute affair.

Judice vs Chaves Prediction

• Judice vs Chaves Pick: Carli Judice by KO/TKO (+155 at Bet365)

Carli Judice is easily one of the best women’s MMA prospects to grace the UFC in the last decade. The Louisiana native is much faster, cleaner and far more consistent in combination than most unranked flyweights, including Chaves. Her volume is proven: 169 significant strikes against Gabriella Fernandes, 109 and a knockdown in the TKO of Nicolle Caliari, and 79 more in a decision over Juliana Miller.

Chaves is unbeaten, but the defensive openings are there. She was bloodied and dropped by Sofia Montenegro on Contender Series and gave Yuneisy Duben too many clean looks in her UFC debut, winning a split decision with 64 significant strikes, three takedowns and 4:29 of control.

Judice should pressure immediately, and if Chaves cannot tighten up defensively, Judice’s pace can turn into a late finish. I lean to the finish because Judice does not stop throwing once she has a read. Judice has the power to cause a quick finish and the volume to overwhelm Chaves throughout the fight.

Wint vs Chatman Prediction

• Wint vs Chatman Pick: Anthony Wint by KO in Round 1 (-140 at Bet365)

Wint is still extremely raw, but this looks like a showcase spot. The 5-foot-11 ex-NFL linebacker, has a 78-inch reach, weighed in at 231 pounds and needed only 34 seconds to get the job done on Contender Series while landing 13-of-18 significant strikes and absorbing none.

Chatman has heavyweight power and a big size edge at 266 pounds, so the upset path is a reckless Wint entry into a clean counter. There is also no comparable UFC-level data on him here, which pushes me toward the athlete who has already shown this exact early-finishing lane.

Wint has the speed and finishing profile to land first and end this before it settles. Very few heavyweights in the world can match his sheer athleticism and power. My read is Wint by first-round knockout to get the main card started with a bang.

Odds as of fight week at Bet365 Sportsbook. You can also trade the Hernandez vs Rodrigues main event on prediction market apps if you would rather take a position than lay the juice.