Rays vs Orioles Expert Picks & Player Props
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Rays and Orioles play their series finale today in Baltimore
- I project the Rays to bounce back against a depleted Orioles bullpen
- Check out the Rays vs Orioles expert picks and player props, below
The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards today, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET on MASN and RAYS. Baltimore is looking for the series sweep after claiming a 3-2 victory last night. Samuel Basallo hit a home run for the Orioles, while Liam Hicks answered with a solo shot for the Rays.
Despite the narrow loss, the Rays remain a formidable road favorite in the MLB odds with a 76-53 record, sitting near the top of the league standings. The hometown Orioles sit at 63-67, battling to stay relevant as a home underdog. Today’s matchup features the Orioles sending Shane Baz to the mound to face the Rays’ Nick Martinez. I will break down the Rays vs Orioles expert picks and player props, below.
Rays vs Orioles Expert Picks and Player Props
My analysis points toward a distinct advantage for the visiting team. The Rays boast a superior overall pitching staff, registering a collective 3.85 ERA compared to the Orioles’ 4.20 mark. The Rays also have a slight edge in the batter’s box with a team .736 OPS against the Orioles’ .715.
The Rays have been a highly reliable bet when laying odds this season, winning 65.1% of their games as a favorite (54-29). Conversely, the Orioles have struggled as an underdog, winning just 44.3% of those contests (31-39).
My Pick: Rays Moneyline (-104 at Polymarket)
The starting pitching matchup is the defining factor here. Martinez has been tremendous at limiting damage, holding a 3.04 ERA over 141.2 innings. Baz has been more vulnerable, carrying a 4.016 ERA across 145.2 innings. Polymarket currently offers the best price for this market at 51¢ (implied -104), beating traditional sportsbooks. Claim the Polymarket bonus code before betting on today’s game.
My Pick: Under 8.5 Total Runs (+104 at Polymarket)
With Martinez keeping opponents off balance and both teams missing key offensive pieces, a tight, low-scoring affair is the most probable game script.
Best Player Prop: Nick Martinez 4+ Strikeouts (-122 at Kalshi)
Martinez has exceeded 3.5 strikeouts in four of his last five games, an 80% success rate. He averages 4.2 punchouts per game in that span. You can find the best payout on Kalshi at 55¢ for 4+ strikeouts, offering superior value compared to other MLB player props. Get the Kalshi promo code now to get in on the action.
Shane Baz vs Nick Martinez Stats
Looking closely at the season-to-date figures, Martinez boasts a tremendous 18-6 record backed by a tidy 1.13 WHIP. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a 3.68 ERA while issuing almost no walks (1.23 BB/9).
Baz has been the victim of tough luck and a bloated 6-19 record. His 3.32 FIP indicates he has pitched better than his surface numbers suggest, fueled by an excellent 8.15 K/9 rate. Over his last 10 outings, he has maintained a 3.97 ERA while striking out 8.89 batters per nine innings.
Rays vs Orioles Stats
The Rays are perfectly built for manufacturing runs on the road. They boast the second-best road batting average in baseball (.256) and lead the majors with 1.19 stolen bases per away game. This small-ball approach comes at the expense of pure muscle, ranking dead last in average road exit velocity (86.1 mph).
The Orioles rely heavily on raw power. Hitters like Gunnar Henderson fuel a lineup that ranks second in the league in home average exit velocity (89.4 mph). But when the long ball is absent, their offense stalls. Their .237 home batting average and sheer lack of a running game suggest they struggle to string hits together.
Let’s review the career MLB batter vs pitcher stats for the projected starters.
Rays Batters vs Shane Baz
Orioles Batters vs Nick Martinez
Liam Hicks and Jonathan Aranda have enjoyed consistent success against Baz, presenting intriguing targets for MLB Total Bases Props. Conversely, Cedric Mullins and Richie Palacios have struggled to figure out the right-hander.
On the Orioles’ side, the lineup is virtually flying blind against Martinez. However, Pete Alonso is a notable exception. He has taken Martinez deep once in seven career at-bats, making him a fascinating option for those eyeing MLB home run props.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
Odds as of August 23, 2026, from Caesars Sportsbook. Grab the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on MLB today.
Analyzing the MLB public betting splits reveals fascinating sharp action on the total. The casual public leans toward a higher-scoring game, with the Over receiving 59.9% of the ticket percentages.
However, the Under has attracted the majority of the betting stake at 53.6%. This divergence clearly demonstrates that larger, more respected wagers are fading the public’s expectation for offense. This concentration of money aligns perfectly with my official Under prediction.
Similarly, the moneyline shows an overwhelming 82.9% of the overall betting handle backing the Rays to win outright, reinforcing my confidence in Martinez navigating this lineup.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
