Tour Championship Picks, Predictions & Odds For 2026

• The Tour Championship tees off Thursday, August 27th with just 30 players competing
• Scottie Scheffler is the favorite over Rory McIlroy to win his second career FedEx Cup title
• See my 2026 Tour Championship picks, best value bets, and the odds to win

After I was all over Wyndham Clark at +3500 to take the BMW Championship, he in fact did so to claim the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The top-50 players have been cut down to just 30, with the winner of the tournament this week at East Lake Golf Club the 2026 FedEx Cup champion. Keep in mind, this is the second year of the new format at the Tour Championship, so there is no ‘starting strokes’ which had been the case in recent years. Everyone begins the event on the same footing.

Rory McIlroy trails only Scottie Scheffler in the betting odds to lift the trophy come Sunday evening, which would be his record fourth FedEx Cup should he get the job done. McIlroy finished third to Clark at the BMW, with Patrick Cantlay the runner-up. The latter was also second place at the recently completed BMW. Scheffler won the first leg of the playoffs in Memphis, but was T-12th this past weekend.

Tour Championship Odds & Prices (2026)

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler

22%

Rory McIlroy

8%

Xander Schauffele

6%

Wyndham Clark

6%

Sam Burns

5%

Ludvig Åberg

5%

Patrick Cantlay

4%

Cameron Young

4%

Tommy Fleetwood

4%

Collin Morikawa

4%

Predict

I’m starting my card this week with Xander Schauffele, who makes East Lake is personal playground. He won the Tour Championship way back in 2017, was runner-up in 2019, then in 2020 and 2023 had the lowest gross score in 72 holes, but didn’t win because of the starting strokes distinction in the previous format.

Odds as Sunday, August 23rd, at Kalshi. Claim the Kalshi promo code to get a bonus for the Tour Championship.

Last Five Tour Championship Winners

Prior to Bellerive, X-Man had worked his way out of his semi-funk (by his standards) this year, with a second place showing at the Rocket Classic then a top-10 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs opener. With his tremendous course history, I’m fully on board with backing him at +1450, which is longer odds than the top-three choices on the board (Scheffler, McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg).

From 2017-2024 (he didn’t play last year), Schauffele was no worse than T-7th in eight straight trips to this tournament, giving me massive confidence.

Tour Championship 2026 Picks & Value Bets

• Collin Morikawa +2250 at DraftKings: In 2024, when it was the old format with starting strokes, Collin Morikawa actually had the best 72-hole gross score, but he wound up runner-up because he started too far behind Scottie Scheffler. Morikawa flirted with his second win his season (Pebble Beach) at the BMW Championship, where he ended up tied for fourth. Just three events before that he was third at the Travelers Championship, a shot out of a playoff.
• Hideki Matsuyama +3604 at Kalshi: Before a middling result at the BMW Championship, not many golfers in the world were as consistently strong as Hideki Matsuyama has been of late. He racked up six consecutive top-15s, including four straight top-7s, before a top-30 at Bellerive Country Club. He’s always been solid if unspectacular at East Lake, but I like the value on him at +3604.
• Tom Kim +5163 at Kalshi: Tom Kim picked up his fourth career PGA Tour title just last month at the Genesis Scottish Open, and has had three top-20s since. Before claiming another win, he was third at this year’s U.S. Open. In a 30-man field it’s hard to find longshot value with prices, but this one is reasonable enough.
• Akshay Bhatia +9900 at Kalshi: Like last week I am all over Akshay Bhatia at this long of odds, particularly after a T-12th at the BMW. He won at Bay Hill earlier in the campaign and was top-15 at this event a year ago. While winning might be a stretch, he’ll be fascinating to monitor in the top 5/10 markets.