Best Home Run Picks & Odds Across Today’s MLB Slate

• Today’s MLB home run board is deep, but the best targets come from combining player power, price, and park context.
• We’re narrowing the slate to five home run picks, led by Yordan Alvarez, Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani, and Cal Raleigh.

With a full 15-game MLB slate, bettors do not need to chase every short price on the board. The cleanest approach is to compare the latest MLB home run prop odds with hitter-friendly environments from our MLB park factors page, then use the broader MLB props market to shop for the best number.

Yankee Stadium, Sutter Health Park, Truist Park, and T-Mobile Park all factor into today’s card in different ways. Below are our favorite home run prop picks and the best available odds at time of writing.

Best Home Run Picks Today

Odds are sourced from BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, and the ScoreBet, representing the best available market prices.

Top Home Run Prop Picks For Today

Yordan Alvarez (+222) — Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

Alvarez is the top power bat on the board in the Bronx. He draws Yankees starter Will Warren, who has struggled to keep the ball in the yard, and Yankee Stadium remains a strong enough home run environment despite ranking closer to the middle of the league for overall run scoring.

The park is averaging 2.67 home runs and 6.11 extra-base hits per game, which gives Alvarez plenty of upside at a playable number.

Byron Buxton (+254) — Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics

Buxton gets the best park boost of any pick on this list. Sutter Health Park ranks third in MLB in run environment, averaging 11.62 runs, 7.22 extra-base hits, and 3.16 home runs per game.

Gage Jump has been relatively stingy with a 0.99 HR/9 rate, but Buxton’s power-speed profile and the venue make this one of the highest-leverage home run spots on the slate.

Kyle Schwarber (+250) — Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners

Schwarber owns the shortest listed price in the Phillies-Mariners matchup and remains one of the most bankable pure power options in MLB. The matchup is not ideal from a park perspective, but the price reflects his elite home run ceiling.

T-Mobile Park ranks near the bottom of the league in overall offense, yet it has still produced 2.48 home runs per game. Schwarber’s pull-side power keeps him firmly in play even in a tougher hitting environment.

Shohei Ohtani (+239) — Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

Ohtani is always viable when the price sits outside the +200 range, and this Dodgers-Braves matchup has the star power to produce fireworks. Truist Park ranks 14th in overall run environment and averages 2.51 home runs per game.

That combination of elite-hitter talent and a neutral-to-positive home-run park makes Ohtani a strong standalone pick, especially if you can still find +239 odds.

Cal Raleigh (+340) — Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Raleigh is the higher-variance longshot from the same Phillies-Mariners game. The reason to take the shot is the pitching matchup: Aaron Nola has allowed 2.04 home runs per nine innings this season, one of the most attackable HR/9 marks on today’s slate. The park is a concern, but Raleigh’s switch-hitting power and +340 price are enough to justify the bet.