Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp Picks & Odds

• Botic Van De ZandSchulp is a large -250 moneyline favorite vs Benjamin Bonzi in the ATP Winston-Salem quarterfinals
• TVan De Zandschulp leads the head-to-head series 2-1
• See my Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp picks and updated odds below

The ATP Winston Salem Men’s Singles quarterfinal hits the hardcourts Thursday featuring an intriguing clash between Benjamin Bonzi and Botic Van de Zandschulp.

Van de Zandschulp enters this matchup as the heavy betting chalk, sporting a World No. 71 ranking that easily eclipses Bonzi’s No. 109 standing. However, as an underdog hunter, I find plenty of structural reasons to look toward the Frenchman.

Check out the action this afternoon at 2pm ET from Stadium Court at Wake Forest University Tennis Complex in Winston Salem, North Carolina. You can catch the action on the Tennis Channel in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.

Read more about my Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp picks, as well as updated odds below.

Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp Picks

• Pick: Over 22.5 Total Games (+104 at Polymarket)

Expecting a prolonged baseline battle offers the strongest betting value in this quarterfinal clash. I am locking in the Over 22.5 games at +104 via Polaymarket or Kalshi, which provides a significantly better payout than traditional sportsbooks laying hefty juice at -125.

The matchup history supports a competitive total, even though it is not as one-sided as a simple Bonzi head-to-head claim suggests. These players have split their last two meetings, with Van De Zandschulp winning in 2020 and 2022 before Bonzi answered in Pune in 2023. The 2022 Winston-Salem meeting was especially tight, ending in two sets decided by tiebreaks, while their 2023 match also required three sets and 33 games.

Neither player creates many break chances by profile: their 52-week numbers show identical averages of 0.51 break points created and 0.50 break points to defend per game. That points toward a match where service holds and pressure points matter more than a sustained return advantage. The Over is therefore attractive at plus money, particularly if either set reaches a tiebreak.

Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp H2H History

• Pick: Bonzi +3.5 Game Spread (-127 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Game-Spread Prediction

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Bonzi +3.5 Games

56%

Predict

While Botic Van de Zandschulp holds the edge in Elo, ranking, and several return metrics, Benjamin Bonzi presents sturdy value as the underdog. Van De Zandschulp’s 1.026 dominance ratio and 1.084 breakpoints-prevail ratio are only modestly better than Bonzi’s 1.015 and 1.070, and Bonzi has been more efficient in the supplied sample, with a 1.418 match-efficiency mark versus 0.873.

The serve comparison also gives Bonzi a credible path to covering. Van De Zandschulp wins more first-serve points, 73.8% to 71.9%, but Bonzi lands more first serves, 64.4% to 61.7%, wins substantially more second-serve points, 52.3% to 47.2%, and saves more break points, 63.1% to 61.5%. Those are useful stabilizers for an underdog on a quick hard court.

Bonzi’s recent tiebreak results and the narrow margins in the 2022 meeting reinforce the spread case, and moving from +2.5 to +3.5 provides a valuable extra game of protection. Van De Zandschulp remains the likelier winner, but a straight-sets victory with one close set—or another match decided by tiebreaks—gives Bonzi a realistic route to cashing the spread. I am grabbing Bonzi +3.5 at 56¢ (-127) on Kalshi.

Bonzi vs Van De Zandschulp Odds

Odds as of August 27 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

BET365
SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $365 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (AZ, CO, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, MO, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ in KY). Please gamble responsibly. Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/MO/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $10
GET $365

WIN OR LOSE!

CLAIM OFFER

These three meetings give Van De Zandschulp a 2-1 head-to-head lead, but they also show why Bonzi can be dangerous at this number. The Dutchman won the first two encounters, including the 2022 Winston-Salem quarterfinal, yet Bonzi’s 2023 victory required three sets and 33 games. The 2022 match was similarly close at the set level, with both sets going to tiebreaks.