Cerundolo vs Buse Predictions & Betting Lines

• Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the betting favorite over Ignacio Buse in quarterfinal play at the ATP Winston Salem
• Buse possesses superior ATP ranking metrics entering this quarterfinal
• See below for my Cerundolo vs Buse predictions as well as the latest betting lines

Juan Manuel Cerundolo squares off against Ignacio Buse in the quarterfinals of the ATP Winston Salem men’s singles on Friday afternoon, with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

Buse boasts the superior ATP ranking, sitting at No. 36 compared to Cerundolo’s No. 51. However, the betting dynamic shifts dramatically when you examine their history.

The defining question for me is whether Buse can finally crack Cerundolo’s defensive baseline game or if history will repeat itself.

Action gets underway this afternoon at 4pm ET from Stadium Court at at Wake Forest University Tennis Complex in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage in the US, and TSN showing the matches in Canada.

Cerundolo vs Buse Odds

Cerundolo has dictated this matchup thus far, holding a 2-0 head-to-head record against Buse. Their most recent encounter at ATP Gstaad in 2025 resulted in a convincing straight-sets victory for the Argentine.

While Buse pushed their 2024 meeting in Lima to a decisive third set, Cerundolo still emerged victorious. This history carries significant predictive weight. It demonstrates a consistent tactical advantage for Cerundolo in returning Buse’s first serve, effectively negating the current ranking disparity on the ATP Tour.

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Cerundolo vs Buse Predictions

• Pick: Cerundolo Moneyline (-110 at bet365)

Cerundolo is the value side despite Buse’s higher ATP ranking. Tennis Abstract’s August 24 Elo ratings favor Cerundolo 1,806.6 to 1,767.1 overall, while the hard-court numbers show an even wider gap: 1,707.2 for Cerundolo compared with 1,618.6 for Buse. That 88.6-point surface advantage offers a stronger case for the Argentine than the official ranking disparity, which has Buse at No. 36 and Cerundolo at No. 51.

Cerundolo’s 52-week profile at Tennis Ratio also points to the more reliable service performance. He has won 80.5% of his service games compared with 76.7% for Buse, and leads in first-serve points won (71.7% to 69.6%), second-serve points won (53.1% to 51.2%) and break points saved (62.7% to 60.3%). Buse does create more break chances (0.63 to 0.56 per game), wins more return games (27.9% to 24.0%) and converts more break points (44.0% to 42.6%), so he has clear paths to pressure Cerundolo. Still, Cerundolo’s advantages in service stability, second-serve returns (51.5% to 50.0%), dominance ratio (1.088 to 1.081) and break-point performance (1.243 to 1.199) give him the sturdier overall profile.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse H2H Record

Both players enter with credible recent form. Buse has won his first two Winston-Salem matches, defeating Adam Walton and Daniel Altmaier, while Cerundolo advanced past Danyil Suresh and Sebastian Baez in his opening rounds. Cerundolo’s recent hard-court run also includes wins over Arthur Rinderknech and Mark Lajal in Cincinnati. Combined with his 2-0 head-to-head record against Buse—including a straight-set win at Gstaad in 2025—the data supports backing Cerundolo at plus money.

• Game Total Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-118 at Polymarket)

I expect a lengthy, grueling battle that eclipses the 22.5-game total, driven directly by both players’ recent service metrics and surface tendencies.

Buse has maintained a gritty baseline style in his recent hard-court matches. Cerundolo mirrors this gritty style on hard courts, routinely engaging in exhausting baseline rallies exceeding 10 shots. Their last three-set clash in Lima featured 28 total games, showcasing how closely contested these points typically are.

Neither player is going to step to the baseline and go yard with 130-mph aces. That creates opportunities for extended return games. Buse’s solid hold rate ensures he will not fold quickly, while Cerundolo’s defensive prowess makes a quick straight-set blowout less likely. This clash should be a heavy grind from the very first ball, making the Over a prime target.