UFC Fight Night Picks, Predictions & Odds – Nurmagomedov vs Song Main Card

• Third-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov meets sixth-ranked Yadong Song in a bantamweight main event with major title implications
• Nurmagomedov is a -588 favorite at BetMGM with Song sitting at +425
• See my expert Nurmagomedov vs Song picks, predictions and odds for the main card below

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The octagon touches down at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center with the main card kicking off at 6 a.m. ET on Paramount+. This event brings high-stakes action across multiple weight classes as third-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov clashes with sixth-ranked Yadong Song in a bantamweight matchup.

I am breaking down the betting lines to find the best value on the board. Keep reading for my favorite UFC Fight Night picks, predictions and odds for the Nurmagomedov vs Song main card, plus my best bets and long-shot plays.

UFC Shanghai Main Card Odds

Odds as of August 28 at BetMGM. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Shanghai.

Nurmagomedov is a massive favorite to maintain his impressive record in the main event. The oddsmakers also heavily favor the headliner going the full distance, which is priced at -200.

Bilal Hasan at -833 and Kai Asakura at -455 are the heaviest chalk on the card, which pushes the value in both of those fights toward the method and round markets. Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes is the closest matchup on the board at -149 and +125, respectively.

I priced every pick here at BetMGM, but these numbers move fast on fight day. Grabbing a BetMGM promo code or a theScore Bet promo code gives you two places to shop the best available price on each side.

UFC Shanghai Main Card Predictions

Nurmagomedov vs Song Prediction

• Nurmagomedov vs Song Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (-161 at BetMGM)

I like Umar Nurmagomedov to win minutes with speed, footwork and wrestling. He is lighter on his feet than Yadong Song, and his ability to change from open-space striking to clinch entries and takedown attempts is what makes this matchup so difficult.

Song is not an easy fighter to break. He has not been knocked down in his listed UFC fights, and he has never been submitted in that run, so I am not chasing a clean finish against him. If there is a finish, it is likely Yadong’s power cracking the chin of Nurmagomedov, but the Dagestani has displayed elite recovery throughout his UFC run.

The difference is Nurmagomedov’s ability to bank rounds even when the fight gets messy. Across his last five UFC fights, he landed 25 takedowns and produced 33:50 of control time, including 11 takedowns and 10:46 of control against Mario Bautista.

Song’s defensive wrestling is solid, but he has still been made to fight in these spots. Cory Sandhagen attempted 14 takedowns against him, Petr Yan landed two, and Sean O’Malley beat him over three rounds despite Song mixing in three takedowns of his own. None of those fighters were as good of control grapplers as Nurmagomedov.

I see Song having moments because his durability and scrambling are real. I still trust Umar to be faster, cleaner in the transitions and better at turning close rounds into his kind of fight. More than anything, Nurmagomedov just knows how to grind out wins, even if it is not pretty.

UFC Shanghai Best Bet: Yan vs Gomes Prediction

• Yan vs Gomes Pick: Yan Xiaonan Moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)

I am taking Xiaonan Yan despite the layoff because her striking is the cleanest weapon in this fight. Denise Gomes brings chaos and pressure, but that is exactly the kind of opponent Yan can punish with counters down the middle.

Yan’s best recent win came over Tabatha Ricci, where she landed 78 significant strikes and held Ricci to just 15. That technical superiority will once again be a factor. Gomes is dangerous in bursts, but she can get wide and hittable when she starts forcing exchanges.

The concern with Yan is always the grappling, which was never more evident than in her most recent loss to Virna Jandiroba. Jandiroba landed three takedowns, built 9:59 of control time and took a clear decision.

I do not think Gomes is the same kind of wrestler. She went 3-for-10 on takedowns against Tecia Pennington and 0-for-3 against Karolina Kowalkiewicz, so I do not trust her to consistently exploit Yan’s weakest area. Gomes is a physically strong strawweight, but not an elite chain wrestler.

Gomes has real finishing power at strawweight, with UFC knockdowns against Elise Reed, Yazmin Jauregui and Bruna Brasil. I still prefer Yan’s timing, range striking and counter game if Gomes has to walk through fire to make this ugly.

Asakura vs Aori Qileng Prediction

• Asakura vs Aori Qileng Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115 at BetMGM)

Kai Asakura and Aoriqileng both fight like defense is optional once they see openings. Both look to land big and believe their offense will reign supreme. I expect speed, power and big counters right away, which makes it hard for me to see a slow-building bantamweight fight.

Asakura’s UFC sample has been all action. He was submitted by Alexandre Pantoja in Round 2, submitted by Tim Elliott in Round 2, then came back with a first-round knockout of Cameron Smotherman after scoring a knockdown. His speed and power were evident in his lone UFC bantamweight bout.

Aoriqileng’s recent UFC fights point the same direction. He was stopped by Cody Haddon in Round 2 after absorbing 57 significant strikes and 5:30 of control, but he also put away Cody Gibson in Round 1 with a knockdown.

Aoriqileng has also been on the wrong end of quick damage before, including a first-round knockout loss to Aiemann Zahabi. That volatility is the whole angle here, because both men can hurt each other and neither is built to coast safely.

Asakura and Aoriqileng both rely on their power to win fights and are equally susceptible to that same approach.

I like the under because both have fast hands, real pop and defensive gaps. If they exchange early, one clean sequence can flip the fight before it ever reaches a rhythm.

UFC Shanghai Pick: Perez vs Mudaerji Prediction

• Perez vs Mudaerji Pick: Alex Perez Moneyline (+185 at BetMGM)

Su Mudaerji was having success before the no-contest in the first meeting, so I understand the danger on the feet. I still think Alex Perez has the clearer and more reliable path if he wrestles with urgency.

Perez has shown he can still hurt people standing, with two knockdowns and a first-round TKO of Charles Johnson in his last listed UFC win. That said, this matchup should be about making Sumudaerji defend takedowns instead of letting him work at range.

Sumudaerji’s grappling issues are hard to ignore. He was submitted by Tim Elliott after giving up a takedown and 2:05 of control and submitted by Matt Schnell after allowing two takedowns. Six of his seven career losses have come by submission.

Even in recent wins, opponents have found wrestling success against him. Mitch Raposo landed six takedowns and held 4:18 of control, while Kevin Borjas recorded 3:29 of control even without officially completing a takedown. Before his no-contest with Perez, Sumudaerji was having a difficult time separating himself from inferior opponents simply due to the fear of getting taken down.

I expect Perez to make a stronger grappling commitment after seeing how the first fight between them played out. If he chains attempts instead of trading long kickboxing exchanges, I think he wins the positions that matter. Perez won Round 1 on two scorecards before everything fell apart for him in the second frame.

Liu vs Rodrigues Jr Prediction

• Liu vs Rodrigues Jr Pick: Levi Rodrigues Jr by KO/TKO (+200 at BetMGM)

I am not sold on the idea that Ce Liu is the polished kickboxer he is getting billed as. He is undeniably elite in kickboxing, but his game has translated poorly to MMA. Liu is powerful and long, yet with no completed UFC fight on his record, I do not want to treat him like a proven high-level striker yet.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. is an even more unpolished prospect, but he brings real power and a Muay Thai base that fits this kind of fight. On Contender Series, he landed 15-of-19 significant strikes, scored a knockdown and finished Freddy Vidal in the first round. Rodrigues has fight-ending power when he can get it off on the feet.

However, the UFC debut was ugly for Rodrigues Jr, as Felipe Franco landed 39 significant strikes, three takedowns and 3:51 of control before finishing him in Round 2. I do not love that look, but I also think this matchup gives him a better chance to fight his kind of fight.

Ce’s defense and durability are what make me uncomfortable with him as a fighter. If Rodrigues Jr pressures first, throws in combination and forces exchanges instead of waiting at kicking range, I like his chances to do the more damaging work.

This is not a spot where I want the more popular name just because the striking label sounds cleaner. I see Rodrigues Jr as dangerous enough to crack Ce before the Chinese kickboxer settles in.

UFC Shanghai Long Shot: Hasan vs Rojas Prediction

• Hasan vs Rojas Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds

I like Bilal Hasan to stay unbeaten, but I do not see Nilson Rojas as a throwaway short-notice opponent. Rojas is 9-0, aggressive and physical, and his pressure should make Hasan adjust before the fight becomes clean.

Hasan looked sharp on Contender Series, landing 21-of-26 significant strikes at 80.77 percent with a knockdown in a first-round TKO. That was a fast, dominant showing, but Rojas brings a different kind of forward pressure than Mridul Saikia did. Hasan was set up to get a highlight on DWCS. This time, the matchup could be different against a dangerous striker.

Hasan’s footwork is still the separating skill for me. He should be able to angle off, pick better counters and avoid turning this into a pure pocket brawl.

But as good as Hasan is, he still can take time to settle in. Neither guy had any time to prepare for the other, and Hasan has never had to deal with a pressure fighter like Rojas. ‘The Indoninja’ is cleaner, but on short notice against an unbeaten pressure fighter, I think he needs time to read the entries and take control.

Odds as of August 28 at BetMGM Sportsbook. You can also trade the Nurmagomedov vs Song main event on prediction market apps if you would rather take a position than lay the juice.