Best Bets & Picks for Jodar vs Bu (US Open)
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- Rafael Jodar faces Yunchaokete Bu in US Open 1st Round action today
- Back Jodar against the spread as his return profile and overall rating edge support a decisive win
- Keep reading for the best bets and picks for Jodar vs Bu at the US Open, below
Rafael Jodar squares off against Yunchaokete Bu in the opening Round at the US Open today. Scheduled for 1 PM ET, this clash pits a top-tier favorite against a triple-digit underdog on the Grand Slam stage. Sitting at No. 13 in the ATP rankings, Jodar brings elite baseline form. Conversely, Bu is positioned at No. 124.
The primary betting question I am focused on is whether Bu’s serve can hold up against Jodar’s return pressure. The rankings gap is substantial, but the underlying numbers make the matchup look even more one-sided: Jodar wins 31.9% of return games over the past 52 weeks, compared with 19.8% for Bu. That difference points toward a match controlled by Jodar’s return game and guides my wager toward a decisive margin rather than an expensive moneyline.
Keep reading for my favorite best bets and picks for the Jodar vs Bu clash at the US Open.
Odds Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu
Odds as of September 2, 2026 at bet365. Grab the bet365 bonus code now and start betting on tennis.
The odds board prices Jodar as the overwhelming moneyline favorite against Bu. A -1282 price tag demands a massive premium, representing an implied win probability well over 90 percent. The -7.5-game spread offers a more practical way to back the favorite’s expected superiority. If you have access to prediction markets, I highly recommend checking them out. Their prices offer better value than traditional sportsbook for today’s Jodar vs Bu match.
Rafael Jodar vs Yunchaokete Bu Pick
My primary angle is backing Jodar to win by at least 8 games at +108 over at Kalshi. Make sure you claim the Kalshi promo code before tailing this pick.
Rafael Jodar -7.5 Games (+108 at Kalshi)
At -1282 on the moneyline, Jodar’s outright win offers no actionable betting value. The game spread is the better way to express his statistical advantage. Tennis Abstract’s current Elo ratings place Jodar at 2,014.5 overall and 1,934.7 on hard courts, versus Bu at 1,668.2 and 1,625.5, respectively; Tennis Ratio’s 52-week figures also give Jodar a 1.503 dominance ratio to Bu’s 1.063 and a 2.328 match-efficiency mark to Bu’s 1.506.
The matchup data explains why the spread is playable. Jodar creates 0.73 break points per game, compared with Bu’s 0.44, while winning 53.5% of return points against second serves versus Bu’s 50.3%. More importantly, Jodar wins 34.6% of points against opponents’ first serves and 31.9% of return games, sizable advantages over Bu’s 25.7% and 19.8%. Across a best-of-five match, those extra return opportunities should produce multiple breaks and make a 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 type of result realistic.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
