Bucsa vs Gauff Best Bets, Picks & Odds
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- Coco Gauff faces Cristina Busca in Round 3 play this afternoon at the US Open
- Gauff is a deserving favorite, but Busca can produce enough fight to take this match over the total
- Keep reading for my favorite Busca vs Gauff best bets and picks, plus the latest odds, below
Coco Gauff headlines the Round of 32 action on the women’s side at the US Open today, facing Cristina Busca on Arthur Ashe Stadium at 1:30 PM ET. Gauff enters this clash as the heavy betting favorite, boasting elite form and the World No. 4 ranking.
Bucsa steps onto the court as a significant underdog. Ranked No. 40 in the world, she faces a steep uphill battle against the American. The defining question for bettors is whether Bucsa can handle the massive talent gap on a Grand Slam stage to keep the total games competitive. I am diving into the numbers to find the best available angles. Keep reading for my favorite Busca vs Gauff best bets and picks, plus the latest odds, below.
Busca vs Gauff Odds
Odds via bet365 on Saturday, Sep. 5. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on the US Open.
Gauff is a massive -2400 favorite on the moneyline, with Busca coming back as a +1567 underdog. Gauff is also laying 6.5 games on the spread, while the total sits at a mere 17.5 games, a number that I believe is simply too low.
Busca vs Gauff Best Bets
Over 17.5 Games (+104 at Kalshi)
While standard sportsbooks list the Over 17.5 with heavy juice, the Kalshi offers a much more attractive +104 payout. I am backing the Over in this spot. You can grab the Kalshi promo code now to lock in this number.
Gauff is the clear class of the matchup, but the data points to a competitive enough scoreline rather than an automatic blowout. Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo update rates Gauff at 2,126.9 overall and 2,086.8 on hard courts, compared with Bucsa at 1,700.8 and 1,677.0, respectively. That roughly 410-point hard-court gap supports Gauff winning, but the Over needs only 18 games—such as a 6-3, 6-3 result—to cash.
Bucsa has won two matches to reach this round, while Gauff’s recent hard-court run includes straight-set wins over Sonmez, Bejlek and Pegula, making a Gauff victory likely without requiring a shutout on the scoreboard.
Busca vs Gauff Picks
Cristina Bucsa +6.5 (+120 at bet365)
I am also targeting Bucsa to cover the +6.5 game spread. Gauff owns the superior profile, but Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison shows why the underdog can stay within the number: Gauff leads in dominance ratio (1.362 to 1.114), return games won (43.9% to 37.6%) and break points converted (47.3% to 45.5%), yet Bucsa has slightly better first-serve accuracy (64.3% to 63.4%) and second-serve points won (44.1% to 43.6%).
The recent results reinforce that middle ground. Gauff has won her first two US Open matches in straight sets, while Bucsa has already survived a three-setter against Hanako Sakatsume and beat Sara Bejlek in three sets. Gauff should win, but Bucsa’s ability to find service games and extend rallies gives her a path to six games. At +120, that is preferable to laying -163 on a spread that requires Gauff to win by at least seven games.
Bucsa vs Gauff H2H History
Gauff leads the head-to-head series 1-0 after defeating Bucsa 6-2, 6-4 at Indian Wells in 2023. That meeting gives Gauff the historical edge, although the match took place more than three years before this US Open matchup. We must still rely on their broader statistical profiles and current market pricing to find actionable betting angles rather than assuming the previous result will determine this contest.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
