UFC Paris Odds & Main Card Predictions for Hooker vs Parnasse

• Dan Hooker meets Salahdine Parnasse in a lightweight main event at the Accor Arena in Paris on September 5
• Parnasse is a -550 favorite at Bet365 with Hooker sitting at +400
• See my expert UFC Paris odds and main card predictions for Hooker vs Parnasse below

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The Octagon touches down at the Accor Arena in Paris on September 5. Bettors can catch the main card action starting at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount Plus.

Lightweight mainstay Dan Hooker welcomes Salahdine Parnasse to the UFC in the main event. Frenchman Fares Ziam takes on Axel Sola in the co-main event, while European star Michael ‘Venom’ Page makes his return against Nursulton Ruziboev in the featured bout.

I am targeting several intriguing betting angles across this slate. Keep reading for my favorite UFC Paris odds and main card predictions, best bets and long-shot picks, headlined by Hooker vs. Parnasse.

UFC Paris Main Card Odds

Odds as of September 3 at Bet365. Check out the best UFC betting apps for UFC Paris on Saturday.

The board shows massive chalk in the main event, with Parnasse priced as a steep -550 favorite. I see tighter pricing in the middle of the card, specifically between Ziam and Sola and between Page and Ruziboev. Campbell at -380 and Keita at -360 are the other heavy favorites, which pushes the value in both of those fights toward the method markets.

These numbers move fast on fight day, so it pays to have more than one account open. A BetMGM promo code or a theScore Bet promo code gives you two more places to shop the best available price on each side.

UFC Paris Main Card Predictions

Hooker vs Parnasse Prediction

• Hooker vs Parnasse Pick: Salahdine Parnasse by Submission (+310 at Bet365)

I still respect Hooker’s striking enough that I do not want to treat this like a free square. He landed 125 significant strikes against Jalin Turner and 65 against Mateusz Gamrot, so he can still win exchanges if this stays clean at range. Hooker was even having a lot of success against Benoit Saint-Denis on the feet, where he remains the most dangerous.

The problem is that his defensive wrestling has started to look like the weak link as he’s aged. In his last two fights, Hooker was taken down four times, gave up 12:16 of control time and allowed three submission attempts. He was finished on the ground in both fights — submitted by Arman Tsarukyan and pounded out by Saint-Denis.

That is exactly where Parnasse can separate. He brings a 23-2 record into this spot, and his biggest edge is the ability to turn striking threats into grappling entries before opponents can reset. Parnasse is dangerous everywhere, but his grappling is where he shines. As one of the smartest fighters in the sport, Parnasse will take the path of least resistance and wear on ”The Hangman’ early.

Hooker might have some moments early, especially if Parnasse gets too comfortable engaging in wild exchanges. Over time, though, I expect Parnasse to force clinches, drag him into scrambles and find the neck or back once Hooker starts reacting late.

UFC Paris Best Bet: Ziam vs Sola Prediction

• Ziam vs Sola Pick: Fares Ziam Moneyline (-150 at Bet365)

This is a tricky French-on-French fight because Sola is skilled, fast and confident enough to make Ziam work right away. He just submitted Ismael Bonfim in the first round after landing 33 significant strikes on 44 attempts, so the danger is real.

The turnaround is what bothers me. Sola fought on July 25, and asking him to jump right back in against someone as composed as Ziam feels like a tough stylistic ask. Although he is coming off a tough loss to Tom Nolan, Ziam matches up very well with aggressive fighters like Sola.

Ziam is at his best when opponents give him forward pressure to read. In his full three-round UFC fights since 2022, he has landed 203 significant strikes across 75 minutes, which is about 2.7 per minute, and he usually makes aggressive fighters pay for reaching. Ziam’s 11 UFC opponents have only averaged 20.9 significant strikes against him.

Most of the concern with Ziam comes when opponents can wrestle him for long stretches. Puelles took him down seven times and Nolan held 6:47 of control. Sola’s UFC wins have not been built around extended top pressure.

I trust Ziam’s range, counters and clinch awareness to slow Sola down. Sola can win moments with bursts, but I think Ziam is the steadier fighter round to round.

Page vs Ruziboev Prediction

• Page vs Ruziboev Pick: Michael Page Moneyline (-160 at Bet365)

Ruziboev has enough submission danger that I understand the hesitation with Michael ‘Venom’ Page at middleweight. Page has been controlled for 8:14 by Jared Cannonier, 7:29 by Ian Machado Garry and 4:22 by Kevin Holland in UFC fights. Grappling has always been his Achilles heel, and that only heightens against bigger fighters up at 185 pounds.

The issue is that Ruziboev has not shown the kind of consistent wrestling volume needed to make that the whole fight. Over his last four UFC appearances, he has only landed three total takedowns.

Page is 39, but the speed gap remains obvious. Across his four UFC wins, he landed 140 significant strikes in 60 minutes, about 2.3 per minute, while opponents struggled to get clean reads on his entries and exits. If a former title challenger like Cannonier could not touch Page on the feet, Ruziboev is going to have an even more difficult time settling in.

Ruziboev’s best recent result was a first-round submission of Andrey Pulyaev, and that came with two quick takedowns and 2:28 of control. I do not see him recreating that against the slippery Page unless he can consistently trap him near the fence.

I expect Page to win the geography of the fight. Ruziboev can threaten in isolated grappling moments, but I do not think he is dynamic enough on the feet or persistent enough with takedowns to bank rounds. The moneyline offers way too much value to ignore right now.

UFC Paris Pick: Donchenko vs Soriano Prediction

• Donchenko vs Soriano Pick: Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO (+110 at Bet365)

Soriano is the first opponent who should seriously test Donchenko’s grappling at this level. Since moving to welterweight, Soriano has averaged 3.0 takedowns per fight, including five against Miguel Baeza and four against Nikolay Veretennikov. The former middleweight is making the most of the size advantage he used to be forced to deal with at 185 pounds.

That said, Soriano’s wrestling works best when he owns the strength and athleticism exchanges. I do not see those advantages clearly here against Donchenko, who is younger, physical and hard to bully in open space. In the few times he has had to defend takedowns, Donchenko showed the right mechanics and grappling awareness. He should only have gotten better since.

Donchenko’s striking sample has been violent and efficient. He landed 39 significant strikes in a first-round finish of Rodrigo Sezinando, 100 over three rounds against Alex Morono and 71 in a second-round knockout of Theodor Berggren. While his grappling remains a question mark, he has already proven to be one of the most dangerous and polished Muay Thai strikers in the UFC.

Soriano has had problems when technical strikers make him chase. Roman Kopylov landed 82 significant strikes at 64.06 percent and stopped him, while Brendan Allen put 94 significant strikes on him in a decision loss. Whenever he fights on the feet, Soriano wants to set up his big right hand. That is much easier to do on Dusko Todorovic than it is against Donchenko.

I expect Soriano to shoot early and make Donchenko answer real questions. Once Donchenko settles, I think his cleaner combinations and better shot selection start beating Soriano to the target.

Campbell vs Peek Prediction

• Campbell vs Peek Pick: Kurtis Campbell by Decision (+245 at Bet365)

Peek has not fought since September 2024, and a broken leg in training is not the kind of layoff I want to brush aside. His game is built on pressure, durability and chaos, so any dip in explosion or confidence matters.

The key is that Peek has still never been finished in the UFC sample I have. His three UFC losses to Jose Mariscal, Charlie Campbell and Yanal Ashmouz all went to decision. While Peek might not be the most technical fighter in the world, nobody can question his heart, grit and cardio.

Campbell’s debut was ugly, but I do not want to overreact to one bad night. Danny Silva dropped him twice and stopped him in Round 2, yet Campbell still landed two takedowns and had 1:56 of control before the finish.

There is still prospect substance here. On Contender Series, Campbell needed less than a round to stop Demba Seck while landing 7-of-9 significant strikes and adding two takedowns. Campbell is still the blue-chip prospect that made him a 3-1 favorite over Silva and will be significantly more polished than the chaotic Peek.

Peek’s durability makes a finish hard to count on, especially after the layoff. I like Campbell to use cleaner kickboxing, mix in opportunistic grappling and win the more organized stretches.

UFC Paris Long Shot: Keita vs Naimov Prediction

• Keita vs Naimov Pick: Losene Keita by KO/TKO (+100 at Bet365)

Losene Keita did not look great against Nathaniel Wood, and I cannot ignore that. He lost a split decision, landed 52 significant strikes on 119 attempts and never really turned his speed into a runaway striking performance. Keita struggled with Wood’s counter-striking to the point that he never got settled in the fight.

This matchup still gives him a much better lane. Naimov does not have a natural feel for striking exchanges, and his career high in a UFC fight is only 48 significant strikes against Wood. The Tajik’s striking has improved since moving to Denver to join Justin Gaethje’s camp, yet he is still levels behind Keita.

The recent output is the biggest red flag. Across Naimov’s last four UFC fights, he has landed only 98 significant strikes, which is 24.5 per fight, and he was stopped by Mairon Santos in the most recent one. Naimov clearly has power but is uncomfortable striking with fighters at this level.

Naimov can wrestle in spots, but even that has been inconsistent. He landed four total takedowns across those last four fights, and failed on five attempts against Santos.

I expect Keita’s hand speed and first-step quickness to decide the exchanges. If he does not wait as much as he did against Wood, he has the power and versatility to hurt Naimov before the wrestling becomes a real escape hatch.

Odds as of September 3 at Bet365 Sportsbook. You can also trade the Hooker vs Parnasse main event on prediction market apps if you would rather take a position than lay the juice on Parnasse.