F1 DFS Picks, Lineup & Strategy for Italian Grand Prix
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Updated: September 6, 2026 at 12:16 am EDTPublished:
- Power-unit penalties scrambled the grid at Monza, creating massive place-differential opportunities at the Temple of Speed
- Our lineup pairs bargain polesitter Pierre Gasly with two Mercedes drivers carrying completely different paths to the top of the leaderboard
- Below, see our F1 DFS picks, lineup, and strategy for the Italian Grand Prix
The Italian Grand Prix is held at Monza, better known as the Temple of Speed.
Speed will be helpful Sunday. So will a current copy of the starting grid.
Qualifying established a perfectly organized running order. The stewards and several fresh power-unit components then picked it up, shook it vigorously and scattered the pieces across northern Italy.
That creates a useful setup for DraftKings. Several drivers demonstrated top-half speed before being reassigned to starting positions normally occupied by cars missing important parts. Other salaries were posted before qualifying produced one of the season’s largest surprises.
Our lineup is built to take advantage of the confusion.
This lineup uses $49,200 of the available $50,000 salary.
Italian Grand Prix Expert DFS Lineup
DraftKings salaries as of race week. Build your Italian Grand Prix F1 DFS lineup at the best DFS sites and apps before lights out at Monza.
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Italian Grand Prix F1 DFS Picks
Kimi Antonelli ($13,000) – Start: 20th
Antonelli entered qualifying knowing his power-unit penalty would send him to the back of the grid regardless of where he finished.
Mercedes used the unusual situation to its advantage. With Antonelli’s starting position already lost, he played the teammate role and provided Russell with valuable slipstreams around Monza.
Antonelli still qualified seventh after finishing fifth in FP1, third in FP2 and fourth in FP3. His speed remained evident throughout a qualifying session structured partly around helping the other side of the Mercedes garage.
He will officially start 20th, while the SpeedwaySteve2 model projects him to finish sixth and score 43 DraftKings points. A climb to that position would generate 14 place-differential points before his finishing-position score is added.
Rostering both Mercedes drivers gives us access to whichever one earns the teammate bonus. The model favors Russell in that category and gives Antonelli the larger place-differential ceiling.
Antonelli spent Saturday helping Russell move forward. On Sunday, he can finally begin working on his own commute.
George Russell ($12,000) – Start: 2nd
Russell has been the strongest driver throughout the weekend.
He finished third in FP1 before leading FP2 and FP3. Russell missed the pole by only 0.060 seconds and will start alongside Gasly on the front row.
The SpeedwaySteve2 model ranks Russell first in every major category. He owns the best odds rank, the best Monza rating, the best projected finish and a slate-leading projection of 53 DraftKings points.
Russell is also projected five positions ahead of Antonelli, making him the lineup’s most likely Mercedes driver to collect the teammate bonus.
Starting second limits his place-differential potential and places more emphasis on winning, leading laps and defeating Antonelli. Russell has shown enough speed throughout the weekend to check every box.
Gasly stole the final lap of qualifying. We are backing Russell to take Sunday.
Italian Grand Prix DFS Strategy: Penalty Value Plays
Liam Lawson (Captain) ($9,900) – Start: 21st
Lawson qualified 14th and will start 21st after his predetermined power-unit penalty.
The penalty created an extremely useful DraftKings starting position.
Lawson finished fourth in FP1 before ranking 12th in FP2 and FP3. He was also impeded by Oscar Piastri on his final Q2 lap, preventing him from making a clean attempt to advance into Q3.
The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects Lawson to finish 13th. That would produce eight place-differential points before accounting for his finishing-position score or the captain’s 1.5-times multiplier.
Max Verstappen starts fifth and carries a fifth-place projection, leaving Lawson with a difficult path to the teammate bonus. His place-differential ceiling and affordable captain salary drive this selection.
Starting a Red Bull driver 21st usually requires a mechanical failure, a penalty or the team accidentally leaving the car at the hotel. Lawson’s functioning Red Bull begins the race with 20 cars ahead of it and plenty of room to score.
Yuki Tsunoda ($5,200) – Start: 15th
Tsunoda finished 12th in FP1, improved to 10th in FP2 and ranked 15th in FP3. He was eliminated in Q1 after qualifying 17th and moves forward to 15th because of the penalties behind him.
Our model projects Tsunoda to finish 17th. That creates some place-differential risk, and teammate Arvid Lindblad is expected to finish seven positions ahead of him.
Tsunoda’s salary and Friday top-10 speed make the rest of the lineup possible. Selecting him leaves enough money for both Mercedes drivers, Gasly and Alpine while keeping us away from the Cadillac and Aston Martin bargain bins.
Every lineup needs someone whose primary responsibility is to remain attached to all four tires. Tsunoda has been assigned the clipboard.
Italian Grand Prix DFS Value Plays
Pierre Gasly ($5,600) – Start: 1st
Gasly did not participate in FP1 and ranked only 14th in FP2. He improved to ninth in FP3, then apparently remembered that Monza is where he won his first Formula 1 race.
Gasly produced a 1:21.786 lap in qualifying to capture the first pole of his Formula 1 career. He beat Russell by 0.060 seconds and starts six positions ahead of Alpine teammate Franco Colapinto.
The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects Gasly to finish fourth, score 37.5 DraftKings points and defeat Colapinto, which would secure the five-point teammate bonus.
Alpine’s straight-line speed has been excellent throughout the weekend, an especially valuable trait at a circuit built around long straights and heavy braking zones.
At $5,600, Gasly can surrender several positions and remain one of the slate’s strongest values. DraftKings released the salary before qualifying, and Gasly responded by turning the pricing sheet into an emergency document.
Alpine Constructor ($3,500) – Start: 1st/7th
Alpine may be the strangest constructor value DraftKings has offered all season.
Gasly starts from the pole, while Colapinto qualified eighth and moves up to seventh. The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects them to finish fourth and ninth.
Alpine placed both cars in Q3 and displayed the straight-line speed needed to protect track position at Monza. Both drivers can realistically finish inside the top 10, yet Alpine carries the lowest constructor salary on the slate.
Pairing Alpine with Gasly also creates useful correlation. A Gasly podium would reward both selections, while Colapinto can add another strong finishing score by remaining near the top 10.
The $3,500 salary gives us access to the most important pieces elsewhere in the lineup. A clean afternoon from both cars would provide more than enough production.
They just need to maximize their straight-line speed and resist the urge to turn the first chicane into an Italian traffic circle.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.