F1 Italian Grand Prix Predictions, Betting Picks & Race Winner Odds
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Pierre Gasly’s surprise pole has created an unusual betting board for Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix.
- Our Italian Grand Prix card targets two drivers with multiple paths to the front at the Temple of Speed.
- Read below for F1 Italian Grand Prix predictions, betting picks and race winner odds.
Pierre Gasly secured the first pole position of his Formula 1 career Saturday at Monza.
The sportsbooks celebrated this achievement by immediately making someone else the favorite.
Gasly produced a sensational final lap at the same circuit where he earned his first Formula 1 victory in 2020. It was a wonderful moment for Gasly, Alpine and anybody who enjoys watching betting markets respond to heartwarming stories with cold mathematical indifference.
Several grid penalties added another layer of disorder. Drivers moved forward, backward and occasionally into positions they may not remember qualifying anywhere near.
That leaves us with an unusual betting board for Sunday’s race at the Temple of Speed.
Our Italian Grand Prix card includes one outright winner and one head-to-head matchup. Lights out is set for 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday on Apple TV.
F1 Italian Grand Prix Race Winner Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at Monza. New to prediction markets? Lock in our Kalshi referral code, and see how the top prediction markets price the Italian Grand Prix.
F1 Italian Grand Prix Predictions & Betting Picks
George Russell to Win (+100, BetRivers)
The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects Russell to win from the second starting position.
The Mercedes driver finished third in FP1 before leading FP2 and FP3. He appeared to have the strongest car throughout the weekend and missed the pole by only 0.060 seconds after Gasly produced the best qualifying lap of his career.
Russell also carries the strongest overall combination of current form, comparable-track performance, full-season results and market strength.
Mercedes has another strategic advantage following Kimi Antonelli’s power-unit penalty. Antonelli knew he would start from the back and spent portions of qualifying providing Russell with a valuable slipstream. Russell enters Sunday as the team’s clear opportunity to win from the front.
Gasly will have enough straight-line speed to make the opening portion of the race interesting. Alpine has been extremely efficient down Monza’s long straights, and a clean start would allow Gasly to defend into the first chicane.
Russell should hold the advantage over a full race distance. He led both representative practice sessions and starts close enough to prevent Gasly from controlling the strategy without resistance.
Monza provides Russell with several paths to the lead. The long run toward Turn 1 creates an immediate opportunity. Mercedes can use the undercut, overcut or superior tire management later in the race. Russell could also sit inside Gasly’s slipstream and force the Alpine to spend the afternoon defending instead of managing its equipment.
The market requires Russell to win this race 50% of the time at +100. Our model places him first, and the weekend data supports that position.
Gasly already has a new trophy for his living room. Russell can still leave Italy with the larger piece of luggage.
Lando Norris over Oscar Piastri (-110 at Caesars)
Piastri qualified third before an impeding penalty dropped him to sixth on the official starting grid. Norris struggled during Q3 and will start eighth.
Those two positions are responsible for an appealing matchup price.
Norris has consistently held the advantage over Piastri in race trim this season. That pattern continued throughout the Monza practice sessions. Norris finished sixth in FP1, fourth in FP2 and fifth in FP3. Piastri ranked 11th, sixth and eighth in those sessions.
Piastri moved ahead during qualifying but his grid penalty reduced the starting-position advantage to only two places.
The SpeedwaySteve2 model gives both McLaren drivers a sixth-place projected finish. Norris owns a 2.86 overall rating compared to Piastri’s 5.75, creating a 2.89-position underlying advantage once the complete data set is considered.
The championship situation adds another layer.
Norris enters the Italian Grand Prix fourth in the standings with 159 points. Piastri sits seventh with 106. McLaren has one driver maintaining a realistic path toward the championship leaders, and Norris owns a 53-point cushion over the other side of the garage.
Potential team orders provide an additional route to cashing this wager. They could become relevant if the McLarens converge during the pit cycle or find themselves running together late in the race.
McLaren has shown a willingness to manage its drivers when circumstances demand it. A strategic call favoring Norris would be understandable with the current championship standings, especially if Piastri is directly ahead and neither driver is fighting for the victory.
Norris has also won the last two Grand Prix races at Hungary and the Netherlands. Piastri finished sixth last week at Zandvoort while Norris controlled the race and won by more than 11 seconds.
We are laying only -110 for the driver with the better season, stronger race trim, superior model rating and greater championship priority.
Piastri earned the better starting position. Norris has 53 laps to erase two places.
Looking for the best places to bet the Italian Grand Prix? Check out our guide to the top F1 betting apps before Sunday’s race.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
