Paul vs Alcaraz Expert Picks & Predictions for US Open (Sep 6)

• Carlos Alcaraz is a large -600 favorite over Tommy Paul in Round 4 men’s singles action at the US Open
• The Spaniard has beaten the American in five straight matches, including each of the last three Grand Slams
• See my Paul vs Alcaraz expert picks and predictions, along with updated odds below

Tommy Paul’s path to the US Open men’s singles quarterfinals is a tough one, as the American will need to get through defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday.

While Paul found early success in this rivalry, Alcaraz has thoroughly neutralized the American’s return game over their last three meetings, all on a Grand Slam stage.

I am focusing my analysis on whether Paul can pull off an upset on American soil over the heavily favored Spaniard, or if the Alcaraz’s elite court coverage will yield another routine victory.

Paul vs Alcaraz goes at 2pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, broadcasting nationally on ESPN, while viewers in Canada can tune in on TSN.

Paul vs Alcaraz Picks and Predictions

• Pick: Alcaraz wins 3-0 (+150 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Exact-Score Prediction

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Kalshi

Alcaraz Wins 3-0 Sets

40%

Predict

Alcaraz has the stronger return profile and service stability, creating pressure without giving away easy points. Over the last 52 weeks, he has created 0.69 break points per game to Paul’s 0.56, won 30.7% of return games to Paul’s 24.0%, and held serve 89.9% of the time compared with Paul’s 85.7%. Those advantages matter in a best-of-five match, where Paul must repeatedly protect his second serve against one of the tour’s best returners.

The broader performance gap supports the price. Alcaraz’s 2.194 dominance ratio is well above Paul’s 1.407, while his match-efficiency figure is 3.373 versus 1.733. Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison also gives Alcaraz the edge in pressure points won on serve (72.7% to 66.0%) and on return (40.6% to 36.3%). At +150, the 3-0 outcome offers more upside than the match moneyline, though it carries obvious risk if Paul extends a set or steals one.

• Pick: Alcaraz -6.5 games (+127 at Polymarket)

The game spread is also playable at +127, but it is a secondary selection behind the straight-sets market. Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo update rates Alcaraz at 2,146.8 overall and 2,086.6 on hard courts, compared with Paul’s 1,938.0 overall and 1,880.2 on hard courts. That roughly 200-point surface-adjusted gap supports a substantial favorite in a best-of-five format. Alcaraz also wins 53.8% of opponents’ second-serve points, compared with 50.7% for Paul, and converts 44.2% of break points versus 42.7%.

Alcaraz won 109 points to Paul’s 94 in their 2026 Australian Open meeting and allowed just two break chances. Paul can keep sets close if his first serve lands, so the +127 price is attractive but less directly tied to the matchup thesis than a clean 3-0 win. The best-pick order is Alcaraz 3-0 first, followed by Alcaraz -6.5 games.

Paul vs Alcaraz Odds

Odds as of Sept 6 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Alcaraz now holds a 6-2 advantage in the all-time series against Paul. Paul won two of the first three meetings at ATP Montreal in 2022 and ATP Toronto in 2023, but Alcaraz the last five, including three straight-set victories and a four-set win at Wimbledon. The recent sequence spans hard, clay and grass courts, making it more persuasive than a surface-specific trend.

That history reinforces the metrics behind the picks. Alcaraz has combined a 30.7% return-games-won rate with a 67.9% break-point save rate over the past year, while Paul is at 24.0% and 64.1%, respectively. With Alcaraz also holding the sizable hard-court Elo edge and creating more break-point opportunities, the matchup profile supports another controlled win and keeps both the 3-0 and -6.5-game positions attractive.