NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Darlington (Sunday, Sept. 6)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Joey Logano’s recent results and short-flat success have helped preserve his price entering Darlington
- Both of our Southern 500 matchup selections receive substantial support from two separate models
- The Cook Out Southern 500 begins Sunday at 5 p.m. ET on USA Network and HBO Max
Sportsbooks occasionally remember the best version of a driver longer than his car does.
Joey Logano has earned that benefit.
The three-time Cup Series champion remains one of NASCAR’s best tactical drivers. Team Penske has found speed on the short, flat tracks, where braking, restarts and track position allow Logano to use every item in his veteran emergency kit.
Darlington requires a different collection of supplies.
The abrasive surface destroys tires, the preferred groove migrates toward the wall and long-run speed becomes increasingly important. Logano’s recent results have remained strong, but his performance across the model’s comparable-track sample raises concerns about Sunday’s 500-mile assignment.
We will use two matchups to fade the No. 22.
Cook Out Southern 500 Odds
Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions
Matchups
- 1.3u – Ty Gibbs over Joey Logano (-130, TheScore)
- 1.3u – William Byron over Joey Logano (-130, TheScore)
The models are remarkably consistent on Logano.
My model projects him to finish 18.90. Steve’s updated model places him at 20.29.
Logano’s recent form helps keep those numbers respectable. My model labels him “Hot,” and his last-three and last-five race ratings are among the strongest portions of his profile.
The comparable-track data creates the concern.
The model blends Darlington with several intermediate tracks that reward tire management and sustained speed across long green-flag runs. Logano has produced a weighted average running position of 22.42 within that sample.
He ranks 26th in comparable-track average running position, 31st in fast laps and 20th in quality passes. The No. 22 has spent only 32.5% of its comparable-track laps inside the top 15.
Logano also finished 32nd when the Cup Series visited Darlington in March.
His short-flat success remains useful information, especially with Team Penske displaying improved speed in that discipline. The market appears to be carrying some of that strength into a track that asks very different questions.
Ty Gibbs starts 28th, but the starting position has no direct effect on this head-to-head wager. He simply needs to finish ahead of Logano.
My model projects Gibbs to finish 12.17, producing a 6.73-position advantage. Steve’s model places Gibbs at 9.57 and gives him 10.72 positions of separation.
The organizational numbers provide additional support. Joe Gibbs Racing ranks first in my team ratings, while Toyota ranks first among manufacturers.
Gibbs finished sixth at Darlington in March, beating Logano by 26 positions. His comparable-track average running position sits at 13.40, more than nine positions better than Logano’s number.
The seperation grows even larger with William Byron.
My model projects the No. 24 to finish 5.61, more than 13 positions ahead of Logano. Steve places Byron at 8.57 and Logano at 20.29, maintaining nearly 12 positions of separation.
Byron ranks first in comparable-track average running position, fourth in fast laps and sixth in quality passes. He has spent 84.3% of his comparable-track laps inside the top 15.
The model labels Byron as a “track specialist” and projects him to climb from 20th into the top six. He finished eighth here in March and defeated Logano by 24 positions.
Using Logano twice connects the risk on these wagers. A strong No. 22 performance threatens both positions. However, the combined model advantage makes that exposure worthwhile.
Logano has been thriving on short, flat tracks. Darlington is a 1.366-mile egg with steep banking and a recreational interest in eating right-rear tires.
We will lay -130 with Gibbs and Byron.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
