NFL ATS Picks for Week 1 – Best Bets Against the Spread for All 16 Games

Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season has arrived. The action kicks off on Wednesday, September 9, at 5:20 PM PDT when the New England Patriots visit the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch. We also have a unique international clash, with the San Francisco 49ers facing the Los Angeles Rams in Australia on TNF. The slate concludes under the Monday night lights with an AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Below, I will outline the SBD model’s top ATS picks from the Week 1 NFL odds.

Since win probabilities and current-season metrics are unavailable, the model relies largely on on each team’s final 2025 statistical profile and NFL ATS records, adjusted for major offseason transactions.

NFL ATS Picks for Week 1

Odds as of Sep. 6 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM bonus code ahead of Week 1.

Patriots vs Seahawks Pick

Last season, New England averaged 28.8 points per game while Drake Maye threw 31 touchdowns. Seattle surrendered 17.2 points defensively but lacked consistent pocket presence. I am taking Patriots +3.5, backing their 2025 scoring depth to keep this field position battle tight.

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49ers vs Rams Pick

Los Angeles led the league last year with 30.5 points per game, leaning on Matthew Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes. San Francisco averaged 25.7 points. Given the Rams’ superior 2025 scoring and 12-5 ATS record, taking Rams -3.5 is the smart play.

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Bears vs Panthers Pick

Carolina struggled mightily, managing just 18.3 points per game last season. Meanwhile, Chicago averaged 25.9 points with Caleb Williams tossing 27 touchdowns. The Bears boasted a more dynamic 2025 air raid offense, giving me confidence to lay the points with Bears -2.5.

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Ravens vs Colts Pick

Indianapolis scored 27.4 points per game last year, topping Baltimore’s 24.9 average. The Colts also dominated with a 65.2% red zone efficiency. Backing a home underdog with proven 2025 execution offers serious value. I am taking Colts +3.5.

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Falcons vs Steelers Pick

Pittsburgh averaged 23.4 points per game last season, slightly better than Atlanta’s 20.8. The Steelers yielded only 22.8 points defensively. Pittsburgh’s slight 2025 statistical edge and rigid defensive schemes make Steelers -3 the right call in this matchup.

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Browns vs Jaguars Pick

Cleveland scored a meager 16.4 points per game last season. Jacksonville tallied 27.9 points per game behind Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars held a massive 2025 offensive advantage. I will gladly take Jaguars -7.5 against a ground and pound attack that lacks explosiveness.

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Buccaneers vs Bengals Pick

Cincinnati allowed 28.9 points per game last season, while Tampa Bay surrendered just 24.2. Although the Bengals averaged 24.4 points offensively in 2025, their persistent defensive lapses give the underdog serious leverage. Buccaneers +3.5 is my preferred angle here.

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Jets vs Titans Pick

Both offenses were abysmal last season. New York averaged 17.6 points per game, and Tennessee managed just 16.7. With two struggling 2025 units failing to move the chains, points will be at a premium. Grabbing the points with Jets +1.5 provides the best mathematical edge.

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Saints vs Lions Pick

Detroit dwarfed New Orleans last season, averaging a robust 28.3 points per game compared to the Saints’ 18.0. Jared Goff executed a brilliant 2025 offensive scheme. The Lions possess too much firepower, making Lions -7 a sharp wager at home.

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Bills vs Texans Pick

Buffalo averaged 28.3 points per game last year, eclipsing Houston’s 23.8. The Bills also converted a stellar 66.2% of their 2025 red zone trips. I trust their established scoring efficiency over the Texans. Bills -1 is the side to back.

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Cardinals vs Chargers Pick

Los Angeles averaged 21.6 points per game last season, barely edging Arizona’s 20.9. A 10.5-point spread is massive given their nearly identical 2025 offensive outputs. I will happily take Cardinals +10.5, trusting them to stay within a touchdown.

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Packers vs Vikings Pick

Green Bay posted 23.0 points per game last year, outperforming Minnesota’s 20.2. The Packers were heavily reliant on their 48.8% third down conversion rate in 2025. Based on those offensive metrics, grabbing the underdog value with Packers +1.5 is my move.

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Dolphins vs Raiders Pick

Las Vegas was the league’s lowest-scoring team last season, mustering just 14.2 points per game. Miami averaged a respectable 20.4 points. Fading a weak 2025 Raiders offense is a straightforward decision. I am locking in Dolphins +3.5 as a strong road underdog.

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Commanders vs Eagles Pick

Philadelphia averaged 22.3 points last season compared to Washington’s 20.9. The Eagles also featured a stellar 70.5% red zone efficiency in 2025. I am relying on Philadelphia’s proven execution and favorable turnover differential to comfortably cover Eagles -5.5 at home.

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Cowboys vs Giants Pick

Dallas averaged 27.7 points per game last season, comfortably surpassing New York’s 22.4. With Dak Prescott throwing 30 touchdowns in 2025, Dallas showcased relentless passing volume. The Cowboys possess the aerial dominance necessary to cover Cowboys -3 on the road.

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Broncos vs Chiefs Pick

Denver averaged 23.6 points per game in 2025, outperforming Kansas City’s 21.3. While the Chiefs benefit from home-field advantage, Denver’s statistical edge from last season cannot be ignored. I am finding clear value in taking the points with Broncos +2.5.

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Early Week 1 NFL Line Movement

While most of the board remains stable, a few matchups show line movement already. The largest spread shift occurred between the Packers and Vikings. Minnesota opened as a 1.5-point home underdog but flipped to a 1.5-point favorite, representing a full three-point swing, largely due to early NFL public betting handle.

Another notable adjustment has taken place in Bills and Texans. Houston opened as a 1-point home favorite but crossed zero to become a 1-point underdog.

In the totals market, the Commanders and Eagles game saw dramatic action. That over/under opened at 47.5 before sharp money dropped it three points to 44.5.