NFL Week 1 Straight-Up Picks – Best Moneyline Odds at Prediction Markets
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Week 1 of the new NFL season kicks off on Wednesday, September 9, when the New England Patriots visit the Seattle Seahawks, wrapping up on September 14 with the Denver Broncos heading into Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
I am targeting compelling betting angles this week, from heavily backed home favorites to live road underdogs primed to spring an upset. The schedule also features a unique international showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia.
This is the first full NFL season that most bettors have had access to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which tend to offer slightly better moneyline prices than traditional sportsbooks. Below, I have set out my Week 1 moneyline picks for all 16 games, plus which market has the best price.
NFL Week 1 Predictions & SU Picks
Best Bets for Week 1
Jacksonville Jaguars (78¢ on Polymarket) over Cleveland Browns
The Breakdown: The Jaguars enter the 2026 campaign riding the hottest momentum in football after closing out 2025 on an eight-game winning streak. Over that season-ending stretch, Jacksonville was a two-way juggernaut, averaging 33.6 PPG while holding opponents to just 14.5 PPG. For the full 2025 season, the Jaguars ranked 6th in scoring offense (27.88 PPG) and 6th in scoring defense (19.76 PPG), anchored by the NFL’s #1 run defense that yielded a league-low 85.59 rushing YPG. That spells disaster for a Cleveland offense that finished 31st in scoring (16.41 PPG), 28th in rushing (97.00 YPG), and surrendered 51 sacks (6th most).
With Cleveland unable to establish early-down rushing efficiency against Jacksonville’s stout defensive front, expect the Jaguars’ balanced attack to control the tempo and roll to a decisive Week 1 victory.
Los Angeles Rams (64¢ on Kalshi) over San Francisco 49ers
The Breakdown: Staged internationally at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, this NFC West showdown pits the league’s most explosive passing game against a vulnerable divisional foe. In 2025, Sean McVay’s offense led the NFL across every major metric: #1 in scoring (30.47 PPG), #1 in total offense (394.65 YPG), and #1 in net passing (268.06 YPG). Most importantly, the Rams paired elite pass protection (only 23 sacks allowed, tied for fewest in the NFL) with a ferocious pass rush (47 sacks generated, tied for 4th). That creates a massive mismatch against a 49ers defense that ranked dead last in the NFL with just 20 sacks on the season (1.18 per game).
San Francisco surrendered 42 points in their last meeting with Los Angeles in Week 10. Without the pass rush necessary to disrupt Matthew Stafford in clean-pocket conditions, the 49ers will struggle to keep pace with the Rams’ high-octane aerial attack on neutral turf.
Baltimore Ravens (63.5¢ on Polymarket) over Indianapolis Colts
The Breakdown: Backing Baltimore on the road represents exceptional value against an Indianapolis squad that suffered a total late-season collapse in 2025. The Colts enter Week 1 having lost 7 of their last 8 games, including a six-game losing skid to close the year in which their defense hemorrhaged 30.0 PPG.
On the season, Indy’s secondary ranked 29th against the pass (247.94 pass YPG allowed) and 23rd in points allowed (24.24 PPG). That sets up perfectly for Baltimore’s relentless offensive attack, which powered its way to 24.94 PPG behind the league’s #2 rushing offense (156.59 YPG). Defensively, the Ravens tightened up down the stretch, holding opponents to 17 or fewer points in 6 of their final 11 games. Facing an unproven and reeling Colts unit, Baltimore’s superior trench play and ground control give them a massive straight-up edge.
Upset Picks for Week 1
New York Jets (47¢ on Polymarket) over Tennessee Titans
The Breakdown: At 47¢, the Jets are primed to knock off a Tennessee program mired in a multi-season spiral. The Titans have lost 17 of their last 20 games outright and have gone a dismal 6–28 (.176) across the past two seasons. Tennessee’s offensive line was among the league’s worst in 2025, yielding 56 sacks (3rd most) while generating just 16.71 PPG (30th) and 259.59 total YPG (31st).
Defensively, Tennessee offered little resistance, allowing 28.12 PPG (30th). Moreover, the Titans are 0–6 ATS in their last six games as home favorites, repeatedly proving incapable of executing when asked to dictate game script. New York’s defensive front has the pass-rushing personnel to exploit Tennessee’s pass-protection vulnerabilities and pull off an outright road upset in Nashville.
Denver Broncos (44¢ on Polymarket) over Kansas City Chiefs
The Breakdown: Fading the Chiefs in divisional play is rarely cheap, but the data strongly backs Sean Payton’s squad here. Kansas City stumbled into the offseason on a five-game losing streak, averaging a meager 11.4 PPG over that closing stretch while surrendering 20 sacks. The Chiefs’ offense finished 2025 ranked 21st in scoring (21.29 PPG) and gave up 47 sacks.
That plays right into the hands of a Denver defense that was arguably the most dominant unit in football last year – leading the NFL with a staggering 68 sacks while ranking 2nd in total defense (278.24 YPG), 2nd against the run (91.06 YPG), and 4th in points allowed (18.29 PPG). Denver went 13–4 in 2025, won 8 of their final 9 regular season games, and swept Kansas City 2–0 head-to-head (22–19 and 20–13). With a proven 4–1 straight-up record in their last five games as underdogs, Denver is primed to extend the Chiefs’ divisional slide.
Carolina Panthers (41¢ on Polymarket) over Chicago Bears
The Breakdown: Listed at 41¢, Carolina is an undervalued home live dog built to exploit Chicago’s glaring defensive deficiencies. The Panthers finished 2025 with significant momentum, going 6–4 over their final 10 games with marquee upsets over the Rams (31–28) and Packers (16–13). Crucially, Carolina has excelled in this exact betting profile, winning four of their last five games outright when listed as underdogs of fewer than 7 points.
Meanwhile, Chicago stumbled down the stretch with a 1–3 finish over their last four contests, largely due to a soft run defense that ranked 27th in rushing yards allowed (134.53 YPG) and 25th in scoring defense (24.41 PPG), giving up 150+ rushing yards in 7 different contests. Carolina’s balanced ground attack can control the clock, keep Caleb Williams off the field, and deliver a home underdog victory in Charlotte.
NFL Week 1 Weather
At this time, official NFL weather forecasts are not yet available for any Week 1 matchups.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
