Patriots vs Seahawks Predictions, Picks & Odds
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The 2026 NFL season kicks off Wednesday with a Super Bowl rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks
- I’m backing New England in what should be a high-scoring affair than the market projects
- See my Patriots vs Seahawks predictions, picks and odds for the NFL season opener, below
The NFL is back, kicking off a brand new season with a Wednesday Night Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots at Lumen Field. The action is scheduled to get underway at 8:20 PM ET, broadcasting on NBC and Peacock.
Seattle brings a formidable offense with Sam Darnold under center and playmakers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, New England will rely on dynamic wideout A.J. Brown and quarterback Drake Maye to power their passing attack. Let’s dive into my favorite picks in the NFL odds for this matchup.
I always look for betting value by digging into the trenches and offensive metrics. The Seahawks are the home favorite, but my data points to the road underdog holding the stronger underlying profile. Keep reading to find out why, plus see the rest of my Patriots vs Seahawks predictions, picks and odds, below.
Patriots vs Seahawks Predictions
The Spread Pick: Patriots +3.5 (53¢ on Kalshi)
Taking the points with New England is my premier spread play. Kalshi offers the best price for this market; buying “No” on Seattle to win by over 3.5 points at 53 cents yields fantastic value. The Patriots field a highly disciplined offense that limits mistakes under coordinator Josh McDaniels.
New England’s superior third down conversion rate from a season ago (42.9%) gives them a massive edge in the field position battle. I expect them to cover against a Seattle team prone to coughing up the football.
The Total Prediction: Over 44.5 Points (49¢ on Kalshi)
The best price for the total lives on Kalshi as well. Grabbing “Yes” on over 44.5 points at 49 cents is an absolute steal compared to traditional sportsbooks. Both units eclipsed 28 points per game during the 2025 season, meaning this matchup has shootout potential written all over it. Don’t forget to grab the Kalshi promo code before making any NFL bet this week.
New England vs Seattle Picks
Best Player Prop: Drake Maye Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Moving over to the NFL player props, where I’m betting over 231.5 passing yards for Maye. The Patriots love moving the chains through the air. Given that the NFL MVP odds candidate averaged over 260 passing yards a game last season, this line is surprisingly low. Claim your BetMGM promo code now to grab the best available odds on this passing prop before the market adjusts.
NE vs SEA Odds
Odds as of September 8, 2026, from BetMGM.
When reviewing the traditional odds board, Seattle’s -182 moneyline carries a 64.54% implied probability, while New England sits at 40.00%. When I remove the sportsbook juice to calculate the vig-free true probabilities, the Seahawks hold a 61.74% chance of winning. That leaves the Patriots with a 38.26% shot at securing the road upset.
Here is a breakdown of the betting splits, focusing exclusively on where the public money is landing:
- Moneyline: Seattle (67.22%) | New England (32.78%)
- Spread: Seattle (54.59%) | New England (45.41%)
- Total Points: Under (69.30%) | Over (30.70%)
Looking at the NFL public betting data, bettors are hammering the Under. My total recommendation fades this consensus directly. The public expects a defensive struggle, but the offensive firepower on both sides suggests otherwise.
Patriots vs Seahawks 2025 Stats
The defining battles in this clash of Super Bowl 61 odds contenders will take place when the Patriots’ pass-heavy offense tests the Seahawks’ stingy secondary. New England churns out 262.3 passing yards per game, but Seattle excels at shutting down the pass, allowing just 193.9 yards through the air.
Something has to give when these units clash. On the flip side, Seattle will try to ground and pound to sustain drives against a New England defense giving up a measly 295.2 total yards per game. Given the Seahawks’ tendency to be loose with the football (1.6 giveaways per game), any offensive blunders will stall their momentum.
New England vs Seattle Betting Trends
Reviewing historical data reveals several strong situational angles for this matchup. If you want to dive deeper into these numbers, you can explore our NFL ATS records page.
- The Patriots are 13-5 (72.2%) against the spread over their last 18 games.
- New England is a flawless 5-0 against the spread in their last five matchups as a true road underdog.
- The Patriots have won their last four consecutive games straight up when playing as a true road underdog.
- The over has hit in eight of the Seahawks’ last 10 home games when playing as the betting favorite (80%).
- The total has gone over in nine of New England’s last 11 games when acting as an underdog by fewer than seven points (81.8%).
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
