NASCAR Enjoy Illinois 300 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Gateway (Sunday, Sept. 13)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- The Enjoy Illinois 300 begins Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network.
- A miserable practice session and inspection trouble create our favorite driver fade.
- Our model finds nearly seven positions of value in a matchup between two drivers starting three spots apart.
Gateway is a difficult place to pass, which is unfortunate news for approximately 35 drivers who did not qualify as well as Joey Logano.
The 1.25-mile track combines heavy braking, flat corners and enough aerodynamic dependence to make dirty air a recurring problem. Track position matters here, pit strategy can swing an entire afternoon and restarts offer the best opportunity to gain several positions before the field stretches back out.
Logano earned the pole by nearly three-tenths of a second, while the rest of the top 10 was occupied entirely by Chase contenders. That should create plenty of aggression near the front. The Chase format does not reward patience, emotional stability or any of the other traits we would prefer drivers display while carrying our money.
Our model favors three wagers for Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300.
Enjoy Illinois Odds
Enjoy Illinois 300 Predictions
Ty Gibbs: Top-10 Finish (-125, DraftKings)
Ty Gibbs begins the race from ninth, which is an excellent place to start at a track where passing generally requires fresh tires, a perfectly timed restart or divine intervention.
Gibbs also has experience moving forward at Gateway. He started 21st last season and finished 10th while spending 117 of 240 laps inside the top 15. This time, he gets to begin the afternoon 12 positions closer to the front.
Across the 16 comparable-track races in our raw dataset, Gibbs has produced a 14.38 average running position and spent 64.3% of all laps inside the top 15. He also averages 36.3 quality passes per race, giving him enough passing ability to recover if he loses a few spots during a pit cycle or restart.
Our model ranks Gibbs ninth overall and projects him to finish 11.89. That makes this a tighter wager than his starting position may suggest, but his history here and broader comparable-track profile keep him within striking distance of the top 10.
Gibbs has a fast Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and already owns the track position we need. At -125, we are betting he can spend 240 laps resisting the powerful Ty Gibbs instinct to make everything more difficult than necessary.
Ross Chastain over Chris Buescher (-121, BetRivers)
Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher start beside one another in 20th and 21st, but our numbers create considerably more separation between them.
Chastain ranks 16th in our practice metric. Buescher ranks 33rd. Buescher also had multiple inspection failures before qualifying, which resulted in the ejection of crew chief Scott Graves and the loss of pit selection. The No. 17 team has already contributed enough to the weekend’s swear jar.
The raw comparable-track statistics also favor Chastain. He has a 16.71 average running position across the 16-race sample, compared with 19.35 for Buescher. Chastain has spent 60.5% of those laps inside the top 15. Buescher sits at only 31.7%.
Chastain also averages 33.2 quality passes per race on the comparable tracks, nearly nine more than Buescher’s 24.3.
Recent form pushes the matchup even farther toward the No. 1 car. Our model labels Buescher ice cold and projects him to finish 26.42. Chastain projects 19.76, creating a gap of more than six positions.
Neither driver had a particularly exciting qualifying session. One of them backed it up with poor practice speed, an inspection headache and the weaker statistical profile. We will lay -121 with Chastain.
Ryan Preece over Alex Bowman (-125, BetRivers)
Ryan Preece starts 14th, three positions behind Alex Bowman, but he showed substantially better race speed during practice.
Preece ranks 11th in our practice metric. Bowman ranks 23rd. That gives the No. 60 Ford a realistic opportunity to erase the starting-position deficit without requiring an elaborate strategy call, a meteor strike or Bowman’s entire pit crew forgetting which stall belongs to them.
The comparable-track numbers are closer. Preece owns an 18.03 average running position over 16 races, while Bowman sits at 18.14 across 14 races. Preece has also recorded 8.6 fastest laps and 7.2 laps led per race in the sample. Bowman averages only 1.9 fastest laps and less than one lap led.
Bowman has spent 44.5% of the comparable-track laps inside the top 15. Preece has managed 49.6%, giving him another small edge in the area where both drivers are likely to spend most of Sunday.
Preece also enters Gateway with stronger recent form. Our model projects him to finish 15.70 and Bowman to finish 22.59, a difference of nearly seven positions.
Bowman’s 11th-place starting position creates some risk, but his long-run practice speed did not support it. Preece only needs to gain three positions before this matchup becomes a heads-up race, and our numbers prefer him once they get there.
We will take Preece over Bowman at -125.
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Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
