Italy vs Belgium Expert Picks & Odds (Nations League)
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- Fresh coaching appointments on both sides set the stage for a compelling League A opener in Rome
- Italy’s fortress-like home form and superior H2H record point toward the home moneyline in Italy vs Belgium predictions
- Historical scoring trends make a case for backing the Over in Italy vs Belgium picks
The 2026/27 UEFA Nations League kicks off on Friday, September 25, 2026, at 2:45 PM ET with Italy hosting Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico. Placed in League A, Group 1 alongside France and Turkiye, both nations will view this curtain-raiser as a chance to lay down an early marker under recently installed managers.
Italy’s footballing identity is at a crossroads. The Azzurri have not appeared at a World Cup since 2014, and their latest elimination – on penalties against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the qualification playoffs – prompted yet another managerial overhaul. After a brief caretaker period, the federation turned back to Roberto Mancini, the architect of Italy’s 2020 European Championship glory, who left the post three years ago.
Belgium’s narrative is more optimistic: a run to the World Cup last eight this summer, halted only by a 2-1 defeat to eventual winners Spain, earned widespread praise. Nevertheless, the Belgian federation opted for change, replacing outgoing coach Rudi Garcia with Dutch tactician Mark van Bommel.
As an analytical bettor, the opening round of a new Nations League cycle is fertile ground for finding value. With no current-season data to lean on, the handicapping process must lean on recent form and head-to-head history.
Italy vs Belgium Predictions & Best Bets
Moneyline Pick: Italy (44¢ / +127 at Kalshi)
Total-Goals Pick: Over 2.5 (54¢ / -117 at Kalshi)
I am targeting the home moneyline and the Over 2.5 goals market using the Kalshi exchange, which offers superior payouts compared to traditional sportsbooks.
At 44¢ per contract, a correct prediction yields a $1 payout per share, implying +127 odds – better than the standard +125 market price. The 54¢ price on the Over translates to -117, edging out the -130 odds elsewhere.
Italy vs Belgium: Last 10 H2H Meetings
The series heavily favors Italy: six wins, two draws, and only two defeats from the last 10 encounters—a 60% outright win rate. The 10 matches have produced a combined 32 goals (3.2 per game), and Belgium’s last triumph over the Azzurri was more than a decade ago in a November 2015 friendly (3-1).
Why I like Italy on the moneyline: The 60% head-to-head win rate tells only part of the story. Strip out friendlies and Italy’s dominance is even starker – five victories and a single draw from six competitive meetings. Over the most recent five head-to-heads, the Azzurri have collected 12 of a possible 15 points (four wins, one draw), and they are unbeaten in all three Nations League encounters with Belgium (two wins, one draw).
Combine that series supremacy with a near-impenetrable home record – four shutout victories in their last five at home – and there is a compelling case for backing the hosts. Mancini’s proven track record with this group of players, dating back to his first stint, adds another dimension.
Why I like the Over 2.5: Seven of the last 10 Italy-Belgium clashes have cleared the 2.5-goal line—a 70% hit rate. The 3.2 goals-per-game average across the series provides a robust historical baseline.
Belgium’s open, attacking approach – evidenced by both clubs finding the net in five of their last six and by the pattern of early goals in this team’s fixtures – should generate chances at both ends. Italy’s recent tendency toward tight, low-scoring results (five of their last six under 2.5) introduces an element of risk, but the sheer weight of H2H scoring history and Belgium’s free-flowing style tilt the math in favor of goals.
Belgium vs Italy Odds
Odds as of September 23 at 6:01 pm ET from theScore Bet.
The oddsmakers currently have the home side positioned as the favorite, priced at +125 on the moneyline. The visitors head into the fixture as the underdog at +220, while a draw offers the highest odds of the three primary outcomes at +250.
In the implied probabilities, the home favorite sits at 44.44%, the underdog at 31.25%, and the draw at 28.57%. This creates a total implied probability of 104.26%. Removing the sportsbook vig, the true probabilities sit at 42.62% for a home win, 29.98% for an away win, and 27.40% for a draw.
A $20 bet on the home moneyline at +125 would return a $25 profit for a total payout of $45. Conversely, a $20 wager on the underdog moneyline at +220 results in a $44 profit, generating a total payout of $64. (Note: Kalshi’s 44¢ and 31¢ YES contracts offer slightly better EV yields for bettors willing to use exchange markets).
Looking at line movement, the home moneyline moved from an opening price of +115 to the current +125. The away odds also shifted, moving from an opening +200 to +220, while the draw moved from +240 to +250. The Over 2.5 moved from an opening of -135 to -130, and the Under 2.5 shifted from -110 to +100.
Italy vs Belgium Form
Italy carry a strong overall record into this window, having triumphed in nine of their previous 11 fixtures across all competitions. However, the optimism that statistic suggests is tempered by the manner of their World Cup playoff exit, which sparked a coaching change and a youth-focused interim period.
Mancini’s pre-tournament friendlies – a pair of slender 1-0 wins against Luxembourg and Greece – provided limited attacking fireworks but reinforced the team’s defensive resilience. Across the Azzurri’s last six outings, only one match has produced more than two goals in normal time.
At home the picture is even more resolute: four of their last five matches on Italian soil ended with a clean sheet. In the last edition of the Nations League, the Azzurri topped their group with a record of four wins and one draw from five fixtures before a two-legged quarter-final elimination at the hands of Germany (aggregate score: 4-5).
Belgium arrive in Rome on the back of a remarkable run of consistency: across their last 19 matches, the Red Devils have lost only once – the aforementioned World Cup quarter-final. The remaining 18 fixtures produced 12 victories and six stalemates.
That overall form contrasts sharply with their Nations League record, however. Last cycle’s group phase was a struggle, and Belgium were forced into a relegation-round tiebreaker against Ukraine, eventually prevailing 4-3 across two legs to hold on to their top-tier status.
Offensively, Belgium tend to deliver entertainment: BTTS has cashed in five of the Red Devils’ last six outings, while an early tempo has been a hallmark – the first goal has been scored within 30 minutes in six of their last seven fixtures.
Italy vs Belgium Injury Report
Mancini is missing several key components. Suspended centre-back Alessandro Bastoni cannot feature, while injuries to Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, and Juventus captain Manuel Locatelli thin out the spine of the team.
Forward Mateo Retegui was not selected, placing the goalscoring burden on Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca, and Pio Esposito. The latter has hit the ground running at international level with five goals across nine appearances since his debut in World Cup qualifying and looks the most likely to lead the line.
Van Bommel has his own personnel headaches. Andre Onana is still recovering from the serious knee injury he suffered at the World Cup, and Leandro Trossard has also been ruled out. Winger Jeremy Doku was omitted due to fitness, and midfielder Amadou Onana is also absent.
Between the sticks, the absence of Thibaut Courtois – on a self-imposed hiatus – and the departure of Mats Selz from the international setup leaves van Bommel with a decision to make. Senne Lammens is the most-likely selection over Mike Penders.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
