Best NFL Parlay Picks for Week 4 – The Optimal 3-Leg ATS Teaser

• Teasing NFL spreads is a great way to improve the probability of winning your bet if done properly
• There are a handful of advanced NFL metrics that are quite powerful in predicting which teams will cover their respective spreads
• After combining the proper teasing methods with the predictive advanced metrics, I have a three-leg NFL parlay I am playing in Week 4

Week 4 in the NFL can be a little bit dangerous. Some bettors believe they have enough of a sample size at this point to know which teams are, and are not, good. But win-loss records and even surface-level stats can often be misleading this early in the season. Teams play good/bad games, and match up well/poorly against other rosters/schemes.

Digging a little bit deeper into some advanced metrics, like turnover vs net yards per play divergence or success rate differential, gives us a better understanding of all 32 teams, and how they match up against their respective Week 4 opponents. On top of that, I like to seek out teaser opportunities that get the spread through both key numbers of 3 and 7.

Pairing both of these together dramatically improves the probability of winning your bet. But teasing comes with a cost – taking -300(ish) odds. You can increase that potential payout, while keeping your edge, by throwing 2-3 of these teased spreads into a parlay. That’s what I’ve done for Week 4! You can see the three legs I am parlaying below.

Week 4 NFL Parlay Picks – Best Teaser

The best Week 4 NFL parlay consists of three alternate spreads: the Bills -1, Seahawks -1, and Falcons +8.5.

While the Bills and Seahawks’ spreads sit on 7, we’re dodging the push and getting through the other key number of 3. Some sportsbooks may not let you take them at -1, as the smallest spread some offer is 1.5 since the sportsbooks want to avoid a push too. The Falcons pick is a perfect 6-point tease opportunity, as it gets us through both 3 and 7.

While you would have to alter this NFL parlay a touch – taking -1.5 on both the Bills and Seahawks – you can trade this “combo” at prediction markets now. Depending on the ask price of a contract at the time you wish to trade, you could get a very favorable price on this Week 4 NFL parlay. If you’re not already registered, you can claim a great promo when signing up at Kalshi now.

I’ll dive into the advanced metrics behind each of these three picks below.

Breakdown: Leg 1 – Bills to Cover Alt. Spread vs Patriots

Leg 1 of my Week 4 parlay is the Bills -1 against the Patriots. The Bills come up just shy of my ideal threshold in every one of the advanced metrics I prefer. But they do have an advantage over the Patriots in each one, and the ideal thresholds are in place to signal a team who is going to cover their standard spread, not a teased one. So, the Bills spread is not only in the ideal range for teasing, but the advanced metrics say the 7-point spread is a little risky as well.

While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good this season, minus all the turnovers from a week ago, their defense hasn’t been great, which is what is holding them back in these advanced metrics. But here are the three advanced metrics where Buffalo shows the strongest advantages:

• Success Rate Diff: Buffalo’s success rate sits at +2%, while New England’s is -2.5%, giving the Bills a +4.5% advantage
• Red Zone TD Gap: Thanks to the Bills converting red zone trips to TDs on 72.7% of drives, and the Patriots only managing TDs on 37.5% of their red zone drives, Buffalo holds a 14.1% advantage in this category (factors in both offense and defense)
• Explosive Play Diff: The Bills offense has been highly-explosive through the first three games, while New England only generates explosive plays on 8.9% of their offensive plays, giving the Bills a +1.7% advantage after calculating offense and defense for both sides.

The Bills’ shaky defense provides a fantastic bounce-back opportunity for Drake Maye, but he will have to deal with the pressure Buffalo will be applying on him. Jim Leonhard’s defense generates QB pressure on 29.8% of their opponents’ passing plays.

I don’t foresee this game being the blowout some are expecting due to what we’ve seen over the first three weeks, but I do really like the Bills to cover the -1 alternate spread I have taken.

Breakdown: Leg 2 – Seahawks to Cover Alt. Spread vs Chargers

Leg 2 of my NFL parlay for Week 4 is the Seahawks -1 against the Chargers. I know Seattle disappointed last week, but it was a classic trap situation of a west coast team traveling to the east coast to play in the early block. Now they’re back at home in Week 4 and frustrated. But I don’t make picks based off narratives. Here are four strong advantages the Seahawks have over the Chargers entering Sunday:

1. +4.74 Seahawks advantage in Net Pass YPA
2. +9.3% Seahawks advantage in Success Rate Diff
3. +2.47 Seahawks advantage in Net YPP
4. +5.3% Seahawks advantage in Explosive Play Diff

The net pass yards per attempt advantage of +4.74 smashes the ideal greater than or equal to +1.5 threshold, and the same goes for the +9.3% success rate advantage, which crushes the +6% ideal threshold. In simple terms, the Chargers offense has been really bad, while the Seahawks have been good all around.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!

Having trouble seeing the signup form? Some privacy or ad-blocking tools can prevent it from loading. You can subscribe directly here.

One other area of concern for the Chargers is the fact that they have allowed a 30.8% pressure rate on passing plays. The Seahawks generate pressure on 26.9% of their opponents’ dropbacks, which puts Justin Herbert in a bad spot Sunday afternoon.

Breakdown: Leg 3 – Falcons to Cover Alt. Spread at Saints

The final leg of my best Week 4 NFL parlay is the Falcons +8.5 against the Saints. There are three main reasons I like this pick:

1. Success Rate Diff = +16.3% for Falcons
2. Red Zone TD Gap = +16.2% for Falcons
3. Falcons’ Pressure Rate vs Allowed = +10.2%

The massive gap in success rate differential, which obliterates the +6% threshold I look for, comes from the defenses of the two sides. Both the Falcons and Saints sit just below a 51% offensive success rate, but New Orleans’ defensive allows a success rate of 57.3% (bad), compared to Atlanta’s defense’s 40.6% success rate allowed (good).

That same narrative of the Falcons’ defense being the much stronger unit shows up again in the red zone TD gap metric as well. Atlanta is allowing touchdowns on just 57.1% of their opponents’ red zone drives, while New Orleans allows a TD on 72.2%.

The cherry on top here is Atlanta’s ability to protect their own quarterback, while effectively getting after the opposing QB. The Falcons only allow pressure on 15.6% of their dropbacks, but apply pressure to the opposing QB on 25.7% of passing plays.

One more piece that isn’t caught in the advanced metrics is that Atlanta has a serviceable quarterback under center for them again. Michael Penix Jr played fine against the Packers last week, posting an 84.9 passer rating, which is far better than Cooper Rush’s passer rating of 4.0 or Jack Strand’s 12.5.

KALSHI TRADING

Offer

T&Cs

Trade $25 at Kalshi & Get a Bonus Up To $2,000!

Must be 18+ years or older & residing in the United States. Other Terms & Conditions may apply.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: RAD2000

CODE: RAD2000

SIGNUP TODAY

GET A BONUS
UP TO $2,000

GET OFFER