NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds: Will Anderson Jr Surges as Market Favorite
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The NFL Defensive Player of the Year race features a commanding frontrunner: Houston Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr has separated himself from a crowded field, moving from +450 after Week 2 to a market-leading +275 after Week 4.
Following a string of dominant, pocket-wrecking performances, Anderson Jr has planted his flag atop a betting board experiencing massive weekly volatility.
While Anderson Jr solidifies his lead, the rest of the market remains chaotic. Analysis of the board reveals a major rise for Gregory Rousseau and a weak market position for Micah Parsons, alongside potential value plays such as Aidan Hutchinson and Maxx Crosby.
Before dissecting those individual resumes, here is the updated outlook for the top contenders.
The yes prices are shown below alongside their equivalent American odds. Only players priced at 2¢ or higher at Kalshi are included in the table.
NFL DPOY Odds (After Week 4)
NFL DPOY odds as of Oct 6 at Kalshi. Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code before Week 5.
The market has become increasingly top-heavy with Anderson Jr separating himself from the pack. The model assigns an 18.5% win probability for the current favorite, indicating the competition is still far from settled. As is tradition, edge rushers and defensive linemen thoroughly dominate the top of the board. However, a select few defensive backs—namely Trent McDuffie and Sauce Gardner—are still clinging to live odds amidst the pass-rushing heavyweights.
Biggest NFL DPOY Risers
Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s edge rusher has seen his DPOY odds slash from +3500 after Week 2 down to +1400 at DraftKings following a dominant first month. Through four games, Rousseau paces the entire NFL with 6.0 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, and a league-leading 3 forced fumbles. While the Bills’ defense has had its struggles – allowing 26.8 PPG and 372.3 YPG – Rousseau has been a one-man wrecking crew, personally elevating Buffalo’s defensive front to 2.50 sacks and 1.25 takeaways per contest..
Trent McDuffie, Los Angeles Rams
Unlisted on the board through the first two weeks, McDuffie has forced his way into the national conversation behind lockdown perimeter coverage. Through four games, he is tied for the NFL lead with 7 passes defensed, serving as the cornerstone for a stingy Rams secondary allowing just 20.8 PPG and a microscopic 247.5 total yards per game. McDuffie’s elite coverage has been essential in keeping Los Angeles competitive while masking a front seven averaging just 1.75 sacks per game..
Will Anderson Jr, Houston Texans
The consensus DPOY frontrunner continues to solidify his case, shortening from +450 after Week 2 to a commanding +275 favorite at DraftKings (backed by an 18.5% win probability model). Anderson Jr has been virtually unblockable, ranking tied for third in sacks (4.5) and second in tackles for loss (7) across four starts. Even with Houston surrendering 27.3 PPG, Anderson’s disruptive pressure off the edge powers a Texans defense generating 3.50 sacks per game.
Biggest NFL DPOY Fallers
Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions
Hutchinson’s DraftKings odds have tumbled from +550 after Week 2 down to +1200, despite solid personal output (tied for sixth in the NFL with 3.5 sacks in four games). The primary culprit is Detroit’s collapsing defense, which has surrendered an alarming 31.8 PPG and 423.8 total net yards per game. While the unit still generates pressure (3.75 sacks per contest), team-wide defensive struggles have dragged Hutchinson’s win probability down to 4.9%, significantly cooling his early-season momentum..
George Karlaftis, Kansas City Chiefs
Sitting at distant +10000 odds, Karlaftis has fallen out of serious contention as rival edge rushers outpace him in critical box-score metrics. While he did snag an interception, he has generated minimal sack and tackle-for-loss production. Kansas City’s defense remains stout overall—allowing just 19.3 PPG and 317.8 YPG with 1.75 takeaways per game—but a muted team pass rush (averaging just 1.0 sack per game) leaves Karlaftis with an award probability hovering near 0.6%..
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Picks
Converting each candidate’s current American odds to an implied probability and comparing it to SBD’s prediction model’s projections identifies potential market value. Aidan Hutchinson and Maxx Crosby present the most-compelling value-based casese. These two edge rushers offer underlying disruption metrics that provide a clear statistical path to outperforming their current odds.
Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions (+1329 at Kalshi)
Over his last three games, Hutchinson generated 1.5 sacks, 8 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 5 quarterback hits, and 1 forced fumble. Against the Panthers, he tallied 3 tackles and 2 quarterback hits. Season-long, he ranks tied for sixth with 3.5 sacks. Detroit surrenders 31.75 points and 423.75 total net yards per game, with a 52.83% third-down rate, yet the front averages 3.75 sacks and 1.00 forced turnover.
His consistent volume suggests positive regression, providing an expected-value edge.
Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders (+1400 at DraftKings)
Over his last three games, Crosby accumulated 6 tackles, 8 quarterback hits, 1 forced fumble, and 0.5 sacks. Against the Kansas City Chiefs, he delivered 5 quarterback hits, 3 tackles, and 0.5 sacks. This elite motor anchors a Raiders unit limiting opponents to 21.00 points and 337.25 net yards per game with a 40.38% third-down success rate. Driven by his volume, Las Vegas averages 3.00 sacks and 2.25 turnovers per game.
A production spike remains highly probable.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
