The Best Week 5 NFL Parlay – Teasing ATS Picks

• Week 5 in the NFL features ten games with spreads of 3.5 or less
• Teasing spreads, or betting alternate spreads, is a great way to improve the probability of winning your ATS bets when done properly
• See the two ATS picks I am teasing in my Week 5 NFL parlay

Of the 14 remaining games in Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season, ten of them feature spreads of 3.5 or less. With 3 (and 7) being a key number in spread betting, I like to tease these spreads to get through the key number and dramatically improve the probability of the bet winning. But when teasing through those numbers, you do sacrifice significant payout. This is why I like to parlay 2-3 teased spreads to get back to near-even odds.

After reviewing all the spreads this week and running the matchups through all of the advanced metrics I trust most, there are two games that stand out as being the optimal ATS picks to be teased for Week 5.

NFL Week 5 ATS Parlay

I’m just parlaying two teams in this week’s NFL teaser, as the best third choice comes with a big red flag – the Jaguars are a regression candidate due to their positive turnover margin and negative net yards per play. I do not like forcing plays for the simple purpose of chasing a bigger payout.

If you want to play this parlay at Kalshi as a combo, you will have to take slightly different spreads, as they do not offer every alternate spread. I’d be comfortable taking both at +7.5 as well. If you’re not trading at Kalshi yet, you can claim our signup promo now!

I dive into why these are the two best ATS picks to tease below.

Parlay Pick #1: Indianapolis Colts +8.5

There are six advanced metrics I consider when making my picks against the spread. Five of them compare the two teams, while the other one is a potential red flag for either team. The Colts hold the advantage in four of the five comparison stats, and the Steelers are showing a slightly raised red flag with the sixth.

Two of Indianapolis’ advantages cross significant thresholds:

1. Success rate differential = +6.1% for Colts
2. Red Zone TD Gap = +33.5% for Colts

I look for teams who clear a +6% threshold with the former, and the Colts just cross it, but I only look for a +15% threshold with the latter, and the Colts absolutely crush that.

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Indianapolis’ knack for converting their own red zone drives into touchdowns at a 75% rate, while holding opponents to TDs on just 57.1% of their red zone drives, provides excellent efficiency for an underdog. Pittsburgh only finds the endzone on 44.4% of their own red zone drives, leaving them settling for three points (or less) far too often.

The slight red flag worth mentioning is Pittsburgh’s +0.5 turnover margin per game but -0.65 net yards per play. It’s a full red flag for a team who’s going to regress when the turnover margin per game reaches +1.0 with the negative net YPP. So, the Steelers aren’t fully there, but they’re close.

For those three reasons, I like the Colts to cover, especially when teased to +8.5.

Parlay Pick #2: San Francisco 49ers +9

The 49ers hold the advantage in all five of the metrics I trust, but hold significant edges in two of them:

1. Red Zone TD Gap = SF +49.6%
2. Explosive Play Differential = SF +5.6%

As previously mentioned, I only look for a +15% advantage in the red zone touchdown gap. The 49ers punch the ball into the endzone on an impressive 84.6% of their red zone drives, while holding opponents to TDs on just 45.5% of their drives. The Seahawks have not been nearly as successful, only managing a 56.3% red zone TD%, while allowing them at a 66.7% rate.

When it comes to explosive play differential, the threshold I like crossed is a +3.0% edge. San Francisco has been very explosive, averaging a big play on 13.6% of snaps, and hold their opponents to big plays on just 3.5% of their snaps.

I think San Francisco has a 50%+ chance to win this game outright, and I like the value in betting their moneyline as well, but really like them to at the very least keep this game within a touchdown.

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