Early NFL Player Props to Target for Week 6: Christian Watson, Derrick Henry & More

• Week 6 early NFL player props look ahead to Sunday’s matchups
• My three targets cover receiving yards, rushing attempts and rushing yards, all from the Sunday slate
• Keep reading for my early NFL player props for Week 6, plus the carry log behind one of them

Five weeks of football gives us something the first month didn’t. Usage has had time to settle, and the guys getting fed are easy to spot now.

That’s where I start every week. I want players whose teams keep going back to them, because opportunity holds up better than efficiency does over a short stretch.

Week 6 kicks off Thursday, October 15 with the Seahawks in Denver, but all three of my plays land on Sunday, October 18. Here are the NFL player props I’m targeting.

NFL Week 6 Player Props to Target

All three numbers above are estimated targets rather than posted sportsbook prices. Check the actual line and the juice attached to it before you bet any of them.

It’s worth shopping these around once they go up. Compare NFL betting apps for the best number, and new customers can look at the BetMGM promo code before Sunday.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Christian Watson Receiving Yards

• Early Bet: Christian Watson over 69.5 receiving yards (estimated target)

My Christian Watson receiving yards target leans on how he scores his points. He has 26 catches for 474 yards and six touchdowns in five games, and his yardage line reads 147, 41, 96, 47 and 143.

That’s three games well clear of this number and two quiet ones. The quiet weeks came with three and four catches, so the floor is real, but he only needs a couple of connections to blow past 69.5.

His Week 5 touchdowns went for 42 and 53 yards. Those two plays alone would have covered this target, which is the whole case for him: a couple of deep completions can do most of the work.

Dallas comes to Lambeau on Sunday night, and opposing quarterbacks have completed 101 of 140 throws for 1,159 yards against the Cowboys this season. That’s 8.3 yards per attempt with 10 passing touchdowns and no interceptions.

Watson also averaged 17.5 yards per catch across 10 games in 2025, so this isn’t a role he just grew into. When I compare receiving yards odds, big-play guys against defenses giving up that kind of average are where I want to be, and I’d play this through 74.5.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Rushing Attempts

• Early Bet: Derrick Henry over 19.5 rushing attempts (estimated target)

I’d rather bet Derrick Henry’s workload than his rushing yards right now. The Ravens have given him 113 carries in five games, an average of 22.6 per week, and apart from Week 2 the workload has been consistently heavy.

He’s hit at least 23 attempts four times. The lone exception was the Week 2 loss to New Orleans, when he finished with 16.

Derrick Henry 2026 Carry Log

The log also shows why I’m on attempts instead of yards. Henry has 476 yards on those 113 carries, and he’s averaged 4.3 yards per carry or less in each of the last four games.

Baltimore won 30-23 at Atlanta in Week 5, a game that needed overtime, which is fair to flag when a carry count climbs. Even so, 19.5 sits roughly three attempts below his season average, and Henry has cleared it every week but one.

The Ravens visit Cleveland at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. I’d take the over through 20.5 on this rushing attempts prop and leave it alone above that.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards

• Early Bet: Jonathan Taylor over 79.5 rushing yards (estimated target)

My Jonathan Taylor rushing yards pick is a bet on him getting his normal workload back. His weekly carry counts are 19, 24, 23, 20 and 15, with rushing totals of 98, 92, 68, 95 and 45.

Week 5 was the first time all season he went under 19 carries, and it produced his worst rushing output. This target is conditional on that being a blip, because 79.5 only makes sense if he’s back around 20 carries.

He’s at 101 carries for 398 yards on the year, a 3.9 average, plus 13 catches for 106 yards. The efficiency isn’t where it was when he ran for 1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025, so this is a volume play.

Tennessee is the obvious counterpoint. The Titans held Henry to 73 yards on 23 carries in Week 4, so there’s no assuming Taylor runs wild on them.

What I keep coming back to is that Taylor has cleared 90 rushing yards in three of five games with Indianapolis riding him. The Titans visit at 1 p.m. ET Sunday, and if he’s back in the 20-carry range this is the rushing yards odds target I like most, playable through 84.5.