Week 6 NFL Player Prop Picks: Bet These Mispriced Lines Before They’re Corrected

• Sportsbooks have a tough task of releasing thousands of NFL player prop markets as early as possible each week of the season
• There are always mispriced player prop markets for those paying attention early enough in the week, before the public starts betting them
• See the three Week 6 NFL player props I am betting before money starts flowing in

Week 6 of the NFL season brings a 14-game slate, kicking off with the Seahawks taking on the Broncos on Thursday Night Football, continuing Sunday with an early London showdown between the Texans and Jaguars, before rolling into a packed Sunday featuring intriguing matchups like the Bills taking on the Raiders in Las Vegas, and the Cowboys visiting Lambeau Field. As always, sportsbooks have released as many NFL player props as they can for these games as early as possible.

But with the rapid turnaround week-over-week, there are mispriced markets to be taken advantage of for those who are paying attention early enough in the week, especially if you’re willing to look beyond the household names. After scouring all the Week 6 NFL player prop markets available, I have found three player prop lines that simply do not match the players’ production this season.

The Best Week 6 NFL Player Props to Bet

All of Kyren Williams, Josh Allen, and Tyler Shough are outperforming their Week 6 player prop markets noted above. One of the three comes with some risk due to the situation they face on Sunday, but the odds that come with the bet present too much value to pass on.

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Let me dive into each of these three Week 6 NFL player prop picks below.

Kyren Williams Over 3.5 Receptions

• Receptions O/U: 3.5
• Actual Receptions Per Game: 5.4
• Average vs Line: +1.9 (+54%)

Kyren Williams is averaging 5.4 receptions per game this season, which is 54% higher than the o/u of 3.5 set for his receptions market. His usage in the passing game has dramatically increased over the last three weeks, as he’s seen a whopping 28 targets that he’s turned into 22 receptions in that window. Here’s a look at his receiving game logs:

Kyren Williams Receiving Stats By Game

Williams has gone over 3.5 receptions in each of his last three, but is just 3-2 against this line on the season.

As I mentioned earlier, one of these props carries a fair bit of risk due to the scenario, and that is this one. Williams has seen so many targets over the last three games because the Rams have found themselves playing from behind, or, at the very least, with a lot of urgency on offense. You can see this by the scores of those games, and the fact that LA is just 1-2 in that stretch.

However, the Rams are preparing to take on the Cardinals in Week 6, where they are seen as 12.5-point favorites. This is not a situation where you’d expect Matthew Stafford and company to be operating with urgency throughout the entire game. On top of that, the Cardinals have given up the fewest receptions to running backs in the NFL, only conceding 2.6 per game. This is largely due to opposing offenses being able to ease their foot off the gas in the second half.

But this isn’t your typical game with a big spread. This is a 2-3 Rams team, who is still favored to win the Super Bowl, that is desperately searching for answers right now. Their offense has been good, but not good enough to win two of the last three shootouts they found themselves in. I don’t believe LA is going to take their foot off the gas very quickly if they take a commanding lead – and that’s a decent sized “if” with the way their defense is playing right now.

So, while Williams may not see 13 targets this week, I believe he sees more than three and that he will make good on the opportunities.

Kyren Williams for 4+ receptions is currently trading at $0.41 per contract at Polymarket, which is the equivalent of about +134 odds, and would potentially profit $0.59 per contract purchased – if you bought 20 contracts at $0.41, it would cost $8.20 and potentially payout $20. If you’re not trading at Polymarket yet, use our link to sign up now and claim a great welcome bonus.

Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards

• Rushing Yards O/U: 33.5
• Actual Rushing Yards Per Game: 47.8
• Average vs Line: +14.3 (+43%)

Josh Allen to rush for more than 33.5 yards in Week 6 against the Raiders is one of my favorite bets of the week. Allen averages 47.8 rushing yards per game, which is 43% higher than his o/u line, and he does it on 8.6 rushing attempts per game.

To be fair, his average is a little inflated thanks to two big rushing performances:

1. Week 2: 69 rushing yards vs Detroit
2. Week 5: 121 rushing yards vs LA (Rams)

He has failed to surpass 23 yards on the ground in the three other games, which came against the Texans, Chargers, and Patriots. However, all three of those teams rank in the top eight for rushing yards allowed to QBs – they do a good job closing in on quarterbacks trying to escape the pocket.

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The Raiders, on the other hand, have given up 102 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, which is 11th-most in the NFL. They have allowed Malik Willis to rush for 39 yards on six carries and Tyler Shough to rush for 36 yards on just one carry. Those are the two QBs who have gone over 33.5 rushing yards against them. All of Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Drake Maye came up short of this number, but the latter is the only one who uses his legs with any consistency – he rushed for 25 yards on seven carries last week. None of these QBs come close to the 8.6 rushing attempts per game that Allen sees, though. Maye is the highest of the bunch at six per game.

A big part of this is how effectively the Raiders pressure opposing QBs. They rank second in the league with 62 total pressures and a 35.8% pressure rate. Las Vegas has been able to consistently collapse the pocket on opposing quarterbacks, forcing them to get outside of the pocket and scramble. When Josh Allen does that, it typically leads to a lot of yards with his legs. I’m betting that will be the result in Week 6 as well.

Tyler Shough Over 238.5 Passing Yards

• Rushing Yards O/U: 238.5
• Actual Passing Yards Per Game: 259.9
• Average vs Line: +21.4 (+9%)

Of the three picks in this article, Tyler Shough to throw for over 238.5 is my favorite. I think sportsbooks are making two errors in setting this market: (1) falling to the Recency bias after Shough just threw for 96 yards last week, and (2) giving the Giants defense too much credit.

Shough is averaging 259.9 passing yards per game this season. That’s 21.4 yards more than his current over/under for Week 6. Here’s a look at his passing game logs for the 2026 season:

Tyler Shough Passing Game Logs

As you can see from the table above, the Saints QB has gone over 238.5 passing yards in four of five games this season, and he has cleared it by a good chunk of yards in each of those instances. Last week against an elite Vikings defense was the anomaly for Shough.

The Giants defense he will face in Week 6 has given up the seventh-fewest gross passing yards per game this season. But when you dive a little deeper into that stat, it isn’t nearly as impressive as it sounds. Here’s the gross passing yards New York has allowed each game so far:

• Week 1: 175 passing yards allowed vs Dallas (5th-ranked passing offense)
• Week 2: 327 passing yards allowed at LA Rams (1st)
• Week 3: 181 passing yards allowed vs Tennessee (31st)
• Week 4: 166 passing yards allowed vs Arizona (18th)
• Week 5: 199 passing yards allowed at Washington (25th)

Two of those teams rank in the bottom eight for passing offense, and another is in the bottom half of the league as well. They also played their game against the Commanders last week in the rain, and it was Jayden Daniels’ first game back from injury. The Giants were carved up by Matthew Stafford and the Rams passing offense in Week 2, and it could have been a lot worse if the game was competitive. They did catch the Cowboys off guard, though.

I do not believe the Giants can do to Shough what the Vikings did last week. They have played a lot of weak passing offenses. The Saints are not one of those.

Thankfully, the weather at MetLife Stadium on Sunday is expected to be clear. We just need to hope that remains the case as the week progresses.

You can’t get the specific 238.5 line at prediction markets, as they only offer milestones, but you can get Shough for 250+ passing yards trading at an average of $0.45 at Polymarket.