Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 6 – Data Says These 4 Players Will Fill Up the Stat Sheet Sunday

Published: October 18, 2026 at 11:05 am EDT

Malik Nabers beating his chest in celebration — Oct 11, 2026; Landover, Maryland, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers (1) celebrates a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Every week there are players who significantly outperform their expectations (over/unders)
When you’ve made a good read and found strong data to support a player having a big game, it’s worth looking to a bigger milestone to seek a bigger payout
The data I trust most says four players are primed for big performances in Week 6; see each in my longshot NFL parlay below

Week 6 in the NFL sees four teams on bye, and, unfortunately, two of them are defenses I like to pick on when it comes to betting player props, and two possess quite explosive offenses. But there are still plenty of other vulnerable defenses in action, as well as a couple defenses who sportsbooks are giving a little too much credit, and many more explosive players to hone in on.

After scouring the data for this Sunday, I have found four players who are seeing great volume and opportunity in their respective offenses, who also face favorable matchups – even if the sportsbooks don’t think so.

Instead of betting the standard NFL prop over/unders for each of these players, I want to make sure I get paid out properly for the good read. So, I am taking bigger milestones for each to achieve, and have taken it one step further by parlaying them all as well.

Week 6 NFL Player Prop Parlay

Player	Pick	Odds
Malik Nabers	90+ Receiving Yards	+178
Bijan Robinson	110+ Rushing Yards	+182
James Cook	100+ Rushing Yards	+116
Matthew Golden	80+ Receiving Yards	+154
TOTAL	4-LEG PARLAY	+4201

All of Malik Nabers, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, and Matthew Golden appear to be primed for big games in Week 6. They all check the boxes of strong volume and opportunity, while facing beneficial matchups as well. I like to bet each of these NFL player props as singles as well, but the focus here is on the four-leg, longshot NFL parlay that would pay out 42-1 if all legs hit.

You can also play this parlay at prediction markets, who not only offer milestones in ten-yard increments but also let users trade combos now too. If you’re not already registered at Kalshi, you can take advantage of our promo code in signing up now!

I dive into the data behind each of these four legs below.

Malik Nabers 90+ Receiving Yards

Week 6 Opponent: New Orleans Saints (11th vs Pass)
Standard Receiving Line: 70.5

I’m starting my parlay off with Malik Nabers to record 90+ receiving yards against the Saints in Week 6. Nabers has only hit this milestone in two of five games so far, but the overs have come in each of his last two games, where the WR has posted 121 and 112 receiving yards, respectively.

It appears Nabers is benefitting from the Jameis Winston experience, which afforded him 20 targets last week, as well as starting to feel more comfortable after the bad knee injury that cost him basically the entire 2025 season. The explosive wide receiver is seeing 110 targeted air yards per game this season, which ties him for ninth-most with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and 295 total unrealized air yards.

His opportunity has been just shy of the elites at his position, as he carries a 0.673 WOPR (28.2% target share and 35.7% air yards share). But if you remove the early games where he was easing back into action, these numbers improve to elite – he has a 0.801 WOPR over his last two games.

While the Saints have given up the 11th-fewest passing yards per game, this is more to do with them facing the ninth-fewest pass attempts because their opponents have typically been playing with a lead. If you look at the underlying metrics, the Saints are seventh-worst in adjusted net yards per attempt, allowing 7.21 yards per.

I expect New Orleans to push the pace of this game and force the Giants to remain aggressive throughout the game, which bodes well for Nabers’ opportunities.

Bijan Robinson 110+ Rushing Yards

Week 6 Opponent: Chicago Bears (9th vs Run)
Standard Rushing Line: 90.5

The next leg of the parlay is Bijan Robinson to record 110+ rushing yards. Robinson is preparing to face a Bears defense that has given up the ninth-fewest rushing yards this season, but they aren’t as good against the run as that stat would suggest.

Chicago ranks just 22nd in yards allowed per carry, as they have faced the third-fewest rushing attempts, and is surrendering 2.18 yards before contact per carry. Their offense was able to force their opponents into negative game scripts early, forcing them to abandon the ground game – see games against the Eagles, Panthers, and Jets. Then they also benefited from their most recent matchup against the Packers, who simply cannot run the ball.

So, I’m reluctant to say this is a defense who is good against the run, and I believe they’ll be exposed by Bijan Robinson in Week 6.

Robinson is averaging an absurd 4.68 yards after contact per carry and a 20.6% missed tackle forced rate. He is tied for the NFL lead with six runs of 20+ yards. The Falcons RB has recorded 110+ rushing yards in two of the three games Michael Penix Jr, who was removed from the injury report for Week 6, has started this season.

The main risk to this milestone is his 63.1% early-down carry share. Brian Robinson has been taking notable work in the Falcons backfield. But with this game expected to be close, I like Kevin Stefanski to ensure his best player sees his share of touches.

James Cook 100+ Rushing Yards

Week 6 Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders (29th vs Run)
Standard Rushing Line: 93.5

The third leg of my Week 6 NFL parlay is James Cook to record 100+ rushing yards against the Las Vegas Raiders. This bet checks nearly every box I look for when scanning for running backs who will have big games on the ground. Here are the metrics that stand out the most to me:

2.83 yards before contact per carry (NFL-high)
20% explosive run rate (10+ yards)
handles 70.2% of early-down carry share
Buffalo has a neutral situation run rate of 47.9%
2.77 yards after contact per carry
16.8% missed tackle forced rate

On top of the extremely impressive personal stats, Cook faces a Raiders defense that hasn’t been strong against the run. Las Vegas is allowing a league-worst 2.39 yards before contact per carry, and another 2.82 yards after contact per carry. This has led to them allowing a 14.8% explosive rush rate, and allowing an average of 157.3 rushing yards per game over their last four, with each of their opponents in that window achieving at least 127 yards.

Cook has hit 100+ rushing yards in three of five games this season and currently averages 106.4 rushing yards per game.

The biggest risk to Cook hitting this milestone, in my opinion, is his issue with ball security. The RB committed two costly fumbles last week against the Rams, one of which should have cost Buffalo the game, and has four fumbles on the season. As long as this isn’t the game his coach takes away some of his dominant volume, Cook should have no problem taking big chunks on the ground against this Raiders defense.

Matthew Golden 80+ Receiving Yards

Week 6 Opponent: Dallas Cowboys (21st vs Pass)
Standard Receiving Line: 65.5

The final leg of my longshot Week 6 NFL parlay is Matthew Golden to record 80+ receiving yards. While the other three legs of the parlay are there more because of their elite volume and opportunity, Golden is largely here because of the perfect matchup he faces.

That’s not to say Golden isn’t seeing good volume and opportunity, though. The second-year WR is seeing a 37.7% share of Green Bay’s total air yards, and a 24.3% target share, good for a WOPR of 0.628.

But his matchup against the Cowboys on SNF is the ideal scenario. Dallas is allowing an awful 9.21 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, which is the worst in the league. On top of that, they have also faced the seventh-most pass attempts of 20+ air yards. When you factor in Dallas’ ability to score points as well – they rank seventh in the NFL in points scored – and the game’s total being set at a lofty 52.5 with the spread being near a pick’em, there should be no shortage of opportunities for Golden through the air.

Golden has hit the 80+ milestone in three of five games this season, and is averaging 79.4 receiving yards per game.

Matt McEwan

Editor-in-Chief; Sports Betting Expert

With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.

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