Talarico vs. Paxton Texas Senate Race Reaches Nearly $40 Million in Kalshi Trades

• The Texas Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton is seeing the most trading volume on Kalshi of any single midterm election race
• The total amount traded on the Texas Senate election is approaching $40 million entering the weekend
• Talarico has held a steady lead in the Kalshi peer market over the last month, pushing his lead to 30 points in recent days

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There is no midterm election race with more liquidity at Kalshi than the Texas Senate race.

Democratic candidate James Talarico is up against Republican nominee Ken Paxton for the seat in a highly publicized midterm election. Currently, the Kalshi market for this election has brought in over $39.5 million in trades.

Texas has largely been a Red state over its history, but Talarico has built a lot of momentum and is bringing in staggering amounts of fundraising to try to beat Paxton, the Texas Attorney General. The top prediction markets are seeing a lot of activity over this race. While the apps like Kalshi aren’t a clear indicator of the race, it shows how the peer market feels on who will prevail and gives customers around the US the ability to profit on one of the highest-profile midterm elections.

Talarico Creates 30-Point Lead in Texas Senate Market

There has been no shortage of activity in this Texas Senate market, as it is now over $39.5 million in trades. The market liquidity will only get larger as Election Day approaches on November 3.

Since the primary elections took place in March, Paxton jumped out in the market to a 63% likelihood. Over the summer, Talarico slowly closed the gap in the market, reaching an even point in early August. The two traded the market lead for weeks, but Talarico has now held the advantage since mid-September.

Talarico reached a peak of 67% earlier this week on the Kalshi politics prediction market. It has since settled at 66% on Friday, 30 points ahead of Paxton.

Kalshi has continuous updates on this race, as it is one of the top Texas prediction markets available. If interested in trading on the Texas Senate race, utilize our Kalshi promo code offer to get $55 in bonuses after making $25 in trades.

James Talarico (D)

Talarico is attempting to be the first Democrat to win a Senate election in Texas since 1988. The 37-year-old was born in Texas and is a graduate of the University of Texas. He has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2018.

He picked up a high-profile primary win by defeating Jasmine Crockett to earn the Democratic Senate nomination. Since then, Talarico has been the subject of a lot of personal attacks from those opposing his election. Many have attacked his sexual orientation, looks, and mental faculties.

During the last year, his campaign has faced challenges from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), preventing multiple interviews on late-night television from airing. Both Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel were prevented from airing their respective interviews with Talarico on their shows, but those actions from the FCC seemed to have backfired, as it led to record-setting fundraising for his campaign.

Talarico is a pro-choice advocate who is looking to raise the minimum wage and place higher tax rates on the wealthy to support blue-collar workers.

Despite the large lead in the Kalshi market, Talarico is only listed as a few points ahead of Paxton in major polls, so the race appears to be far from a slam dunk.

Ken Paxton (R)

Paxton made big waves when he challenged four-term incumbent senator John Cornyn for the Republican nomination and won in a runoff thanks to the endorsement from President Donald Trump.

The 63-year-old Paxton was born in North Dakota, but has lived and served in Texas throughout most of his life. He was a member of the Texas House of Representatives from 2003 to 2013 and a member of the Texas Senate from 2013 to 2015. Following his stint in the Texas Senate, he became the Attorney General of Texas in January 2015 and has held that role since.

In 2023, Paxton was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives for being accused of giving preferential treatment to donors. The Texas Senate acquitted him of the impeachment on a 16-14 vote. Paxton was also indicted on state securities fraud charges in 2015, but the charges were dismissed.

These issues have been a focal point of the Talarico campaign, as has his endorsement from Trump. With Trump’s approval rating in Texas dropping by nearly 20% since taking office for his second presidential term, Paxton could be feeling the impact of his ties to Trump.

Though Paxton is being beaten in the polls and in fundraising, Texas has still been a heavy red state. This race should remain competitive no matter how the Kalshi market develops.