Yan vs Dvalishvili 3 Prediction & Odds for UFC 333 Co-Main Event

• Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili settle their bantamweight title trilogy in the UFC 333 co-main event
• Yan is a -149 favorite at BetMGM with Dvalishvili sitting at +125
• See my expert Yan vs Dvalishvili prediction and odds breakdown below

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The bantamweight title is on the line as defending champion Petr Yan faces Merab Dvalishvili at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on October 24. This five-round trilogy bout serves as the UFC 333 co-main event.

Their history sits at one win apiece after two very different fights. Dvalishvili took the 2023 meeting on the scorecards, and Yan answered at UFC 323 with a decision of his own to claim the belt.

Now the champion enters as the modest favorite with the Georgian challenger priced at plus money. Here is my Yan vs Dvalishvili prediction, pick and odds breakdown for the UFC 333 co-main event.

Yan vs Dvalishvili Prediction

• Yan vs Dvalishvili Pick: Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)

As bad as the last fight was for the challenger, context matters here. Merab fought four times in 2025, and he simply could not have been fully prepared for a 25-minute title fight on that schedule. He admitted as such, saying he could tell during the fight that he did not have as much gas in the tank as he typically does.

Yan fought the perfect fight to win the belt. The champion will need to replicate that performance to beat Dvalishvili again, and betting on a fighter to execute flawlessly twice in a row against this kind of pressure is the harder ask.

At his best, Merab is a stylistic problem for Yan. The champion can wait too long for counter openings to appear, and Merab is built to punish that hesitation with constant volume and wrestling entries from the opening bell.

Yan’s defensive wrestling ability, while historically elite, faces the challenge of overcoming his recent major back surgery. Such injuries are devastating for any athlete and almost always detrimental for wrestlers. In order to win, Yan will need to constantly defend takedowns for 25 minutes.

At plus money, the challenger is too valuable given the stylistic matchup and out-of-cage intangibles. Both previous meetings reached the scorecards, and I expect another long fight shaped by who sets the terms of the exchanges.

Yan vs Dvalishvili Odds

The betting markets reflect a tightly contested fight with a slight edge to the defending champion. The Yan vs Dvalishvili odds below come from BetMGM.

Yan sits as a moderate favorite at approximately -149, converted from BetMGM’s 1.67 decimal quote, with Dvalishvili a live underdog at +125. That puts the champion around 57 percent on a vig-free basis, which is close to a coin flip for a man who already holds the most recent win.

The market expects this one to reach the judges. The fight going the distance is priced at approximately -303 with the finish side out at +210, and the decision props on both men are the shortest method prices on the board.

Yan vs Dvalishvili Statistical Breakdown

The contrast between these two is volume against efficiency. Dvalishvili wins rounds by burying opponents in output and takedown entries, accepting a lower connect rate in exchange for sheer activity.

Yan is the opposite. He throws less and lands cleaner, picking his moments off the counter and scoring with the sharper individual shots in any given exchange.

The grappling story swung hard between the two fights. Dvalishvili got Yan down repeatedly in their first meeting, then found the champion far better prepared for his timing in the rematch and converted at a fraction of the rate.

Even so, the challenger held the positional edge across both bouts. Yan has never controlled Dvalishvili the way Dvalishvili has controlled him, which matters over five rounds when judges are weighing who dictated where the fight took place.

How to Watch Yan vs Dvalishvili

UFC 333 comes from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, October 24. The main card begins at 2:00 PM ET on Paramount+, with the Yan vs Dvalishvili co-main event going later in the broadcast.

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