Maple Leafs vs Oilers Prediction, Picks & Hockey Night in Canada Odds

• I’ve made my Maple Leafs vs Oilers prediction for Saturday’s Hockey Night in Canada matchup at Rogers Place
• Edmonton’s power play has been humming, but it runs into a Toronto penalty kill that has been close to perfect
• Keep reading for my Maple Leafs vs Oilers pick, plus the latest odds and goalie outlook

The Toronto Maple Leafs head west Saturday night for a date with the Edmonton Oilers. Puck drop is set for 7 pm ET / 10 pm PT at Rogers Place.

Both clubs can fill the net. Auston Matthews and William Nylander drive Toronto’s attack, but Connor McDavid is putting up video-game numbers in Edmonton, and the Oilers have rolled out of the gate.

The home side is the favourite in the latest NHL odds. My Maple Leafs vs Oilers prediction comes down to which team turns its chances into goals, and here’s where I’m putting my money.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers Prediction

• Oilers Moneyline (-182 at BetMGM)

I’m backing Edmonton on the moneyline for my Maple Leafs vs Oilers prediction, even at a steep price. The Oilers are 8-1-1 and averaging 4.60 goals per game, more than a full goal better than Toronto’s 3.58.

That production starts with McDavid, who has a ridiculous eight goals and 23 assists for 31 points in just ten games. That’s over three points a night, a pace anyone following the Hart Trophy odds should keep an eye on.

He isn’t doing it alone. Leon Draisaitl has ten goals and 21 points, while Evan Bouchard has chipped in seven snipes and 19 points from the blueline.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers Key Stats

Toronto’s best counter is the penalty kill. The Leafs are killing off an NHL-best 97.4% of their shorthanded chances, and something has to give against an Oilers power play clicking at 35.3%.

The flip side matters too. Edmonton’s PK sits at 72.4%, so Matthews (8G, 10A) and Nylander (6G, 10A) have the skill to punish any bad penalty. Kirill Marchenko (12 points) and Easton Cowan (11 points) have added secondary scoring as well.

Still, the Leafs are allowing 3.17 goals per game, and the Oilers have shown they can outscore just about anyone. I trust Edmonton’s top end more on home ice, and that’s my lone Maple Leafs vs Oilers pick for Saturday.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers Hockey Night in Canada Odds

Odds as of Oct. 23 at BetMGM.

The latest Maple Leafs vs Oilers odds have Edmonton at -182 on the moneyline, which works out to roughly a 64.5% implied chance. Toronto sits at +150, good for a 40% implied probability.

On the puck line, Toronto +1.5 is priced at -149 (about 59.8%), while Edmonton -1.5 pays +125 (44.4%). The total is set at 7 goals, with the Under at -125 (55.6%) and the Over at +105 (48.8%).

Bettors in Canada should also compare the Oilers moneyline at BET99 before puck drop.

Maple Leafs vs Oilers Starting Goalies

Sergei Bobrovsky may start for the Leafs, and the Oilers have confirmed they’re going with Tristan Jarry. If Bob doesn’t go, Anthony Stolarz would draw in for Toronto.

Bobrovsky is 3-3-2 in eight starts with a 3.10 GAA and .895 save percentage. Stolarz has been slightly sharper in fewer outings, going 3-1 with a 2.99 GAA and .898 save percentage in four starts.

Jarry is 2-0-1 in three starts with a 2.97 GAA and .873 mark for Edmonton.