Kalshi Midterm Election Odds: Democrats Over 90 Percent To Win House Control

• The US midterm elections are one week away, with all 435 House of Representatives seats up for grabs
• Republicans currently hold the balance of power with 218 seats, while Democrats have 214 and one seat belonging to an Independent, along with two vacancies
• Kalshi Odds are heavily favoring the Democrats to take over the balance of power at the midterm elections

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The balance of power in the US House of Representatives is up for grabs at the midterm elections, with all 435 seats being voted on.

Republicans currently have a slight majority over the Democrats in the current setup, but the latest Kalshi midterm odds expect the Democrats to take over after next Tuesday’s elections.

As one of the top prediction markets, Kalshi has seen a surprising amount of market liquidity on this outcome despite the sizable odds. Currently, over $151 million has been traded on House control following the midterm elections.

Kalshi Midterm Election Odds: Democrats Over 90% to Take the House

With 435 different seats being decided, this market could get volatile as things get closer to election day, but right now the market clearly believes the Democrats will walk away with a majority of the House seats.

The current makeup of the House entering the midterms is:

• 218 Republicans
• 214 Democrats
• 1 Independent
• 2 Vacancies

For the Democrats to gain control it will need to gain four seats, as 218 would give it the majority regardless of any Independent representatives.

Currently, Kalshi odds are projecting the Democrats to flip 26 seats from the Republicans, and the Republicans to flip 7 seats from the Democrats. If that played out, it would give the Democrats a +17 gain on their 214 current seats, pushing their total to 231, a clear majority.

If looking to trade on this market or any other midterm elections markets, be sure to use our exclusive Kalshi promo code offer to get $55 in bonuses after making $25 in trades.

Key Democratic Races

Of the 26 races Kalshi has the Democrats favored to flip a seat, 22 are currently listed with 70% odds or greater.

That is why you see the Democrats so heavily projected to win control of the House.

Of the four remaining races, here’s how the latest odds look:

Even if these four House seats go to the Republicans, it would still leave the Democrats with a lot of cushion to gain control of the House. A total of 18 of the 26 races where Democrats are projected to flip a seat; the odds sit at 84% or greater.

Key Republican Races

Currently, 7 House races on Kalshi are projecting the Republicans to flip a seat from the Democrats.

Of those races, four sit at at least 78% odds or better on Kalshi. There are three races at 70% or below. They are:

Republicans would need to bring home all of these races and then hope for a little luck elsewhere to have a chance to retain their power in the House.

Additional House Control Markets on Kalshi

Aside from being able to trade just on who will control the House after the midterm elections, you can also trade on other props related to the topic.

You can trade on how many actual seats each party will have following the midterms. The latest markets on Kalshi show:

Along with these markets, you can also trade on the popular vote outcome for Democrats vs. Republicans in the House, as well as the margin of victory in any of these key House midterm elections.