Valkyries vs Dream Expert Picks & Props to Bet in Game 6 (Oct 29)
By Chris Amberley in WNBA
Published:
- The Dream are 4.5-point favorites over the Valkyries in Game 6 of the WNBA Finals this afternoon
- Golden State has scored 67 points or less in four of the first five games of the series
- Check out the Valkyries vs Dream expert picks and props to bet in Game 6, below
They say defense wins championships. Well, the Golden State Valkyries are taking that theory to the extreme in the WNBA Finals. Despite being putrid on offense, the Valkyries are one win away from their first title, and can hoist the trophy this afternoon with a win in Atlanta in Game 6. Prediction markets and online sportsbooks don’t like their chances however, as they’ve installed the Dream as the home favorites.
Tip-off for Game 6 is set for 12:30 pm ET inside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA, with USA Network and Peacock handling the coverage. Keep reading for my Valkyries vs Dream expert picks and props to bet in Game 6, below.
Valkyries vs Dream Odds in Game 6
Odds as of October 28 at BetMGM; prices may change. Get the BetMGM promo code today to get in on the action.
Before we get to my favorite Game 6 wagers, let’s first check out the Valkyries vs Dream odds. Atlanta is currently listed as a 4.5-point favorite at traditional sportsbooks, but you can find a better line if you trade at prediction markets. The total varies between 146.5 and 147.5 depending on where you look, which seems awfully high given Game 5 produced only 119 points.
After taking Game 5, Golden State has moved to a -260 favorite in the WNBA Championship odds with Atlanta coming back as a +215 underdog to win it all.
Valkyries vs Dream Expert Picks in Game 6
- Golden State Valkyries Under 71.5 Points (54-cents / -117 at Novig)
My favorite bet for this contest is the under on the Valkyries team total. This is a market I’ve been hammering all series long with great success, and if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Novig currently has the Valkyries team total lined at 71.5, with the under trading at 54-cents. New users can claim the Novig promo code and score a bonus to use on Game 6.
At this point, we have more than enough evidence to know exactly who Golden State is. They are a suffocating defensive team that struggles badly to produce offense. Their defense is so good that they can get away winning games by scoring in the 60’s, and they’ve lived in that range all postseason long.
The Valkyries enter Game 6 having scored 67 points or less in four of five Finals contests. They have the worst offensive rating and true shooting percentage of any playoff team that has played more than two games, and they’re operating at the slowest pace. Those stats are nothing new to Golden State fans, as the Valkyries ranked bottom-3 in the WNBA during the regular season in points, assists and true shooting percentage, and last in pace per 40 minutes.
Golden State is perfectly content to muddy this game up and grind it down to a snail’s pace. Their long range shooting is non-existent, while the Atlanta defense is no pushover. The Dream rank number one in postseason defensive rating and scoring defense, holding opponents below 40% from the field and sub 32% from beyond the arc.
The Valkyries anemic offense might not preclude them from winning the title or even this game, but I don’t expect their offense to carry them to victory. Bet on Golden State to fall short of 72 points for the sixth straight time.
Valkyries vs Dream Props to Bet in Game 6
- Allisha Gray Under 14.5 Points (+100 at bet365)
Moving over to the player props market, where I’m running to fade Allisha Gray. The Dream’s star guard has seen a massive decline in her scoring production this postseason, and is averaging less than 8 points per outing over her last three games.
A big reason for the dip is the relentless Valkyries defense, but she’s also dealing with a hand injury that has severely limited her effectiveness. After averaging 19 points on 46.2% shooting during the regular season, she’s down to 13.9 points per contest with a 34.4% field goal percentage.
Zooming in even closer, Gray is shooting just 28% in the Finals, and is an abysmal 6-for-35 (17%) from beyond the arc.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
