Thursday NHL Player Props: Top Shots on Goal & Points Picks

• Kyle Connor brings top-line shot volume into Thursday’s Jets vs Lightning matchup
• Winnipeg’s top line has driven chances, and I’m backing it in more than one market
• Keep reading for my top shots on goal and points picks for Thursday’s NHL slate

Thursday brings an 11-game slate, but my player props card stays focused on one spot. The Winnipeg Jets (4-5-3) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (7-3-1) on Oct. 29, and the Jets’ top line is where I’m looking.

Tampa Bay has allowed 24.5 shots and 3.09 goals per game. Winnipeg needs its best players to carry the load, and two of them are on my card. Here are my Thursday NHL player props for Jets vs Lightning.

Thursday NHL Player Props

All three prices come from FanDuel, one of the top NHL betting apps. One note: all three picks come from the same game and the same line, so they aren’t independent. If Winnipeg’s top unit has a quiet night, it can hit more than one ticket.

NHL Best Prop Bets Tonight

Kyle Connor Over 2.5 Shots on Goal

• Kyle Connor Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-168 at FanDuel)

My top Jets vs Lightning prop starts with Connor’s shot volume. He has 52 shots through 12 games, an average of 4.33 per night. He’s hit three or more shots in 11 of those 12 games, including three on Oct. 27.

That average sits well clear of the 2.5 line. Winnipeg’s Oct. 22 recap credited Connor and Scheifele with creating chances together on the top line, and that role keeps the puck on his stick. At -168, this works out to about a 62.7% implied chance, and Connor’s volume makes it my favorite play on the card.

Mark Scheifele Over 1.5 Shots on Goal

• Mark Scheifele Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-148 at FanDuel)

I’m staying on the Jets’ top line with Scheifele. He has 28 shots in 12 games, or 2.33 per game. He’s reached two shots in eight of those 12 and put three on net Oct. 27.

The lower 1.5 line means he only needs two shots to cash. He centers the line that’s been driving Winnipeg’s chances, and Tampa Bay gives up 24.5 shots per game. For this NHL shots on goal pick, I prefer the lower threshold to needing a goal or assist from Scheifele.

Kyle Connor 1+ Point

• Kyle Connor 1+ Point (-170 at FanDuel)

I’m going back to Connor to wrap up my Jets vs Lightning picks. He has nine goals and three assists for 12 points in 12 games, and he leads the club’s attack from the top line.

His 52 shots give him plenty of chances to finish, and Tampa Bay has allowed 3.09 goals per game. At -170, the 1+ point market keeps this simple. Connor needs just one goal or assist, and he’s been Winnipeg’s most dangerous scorer.