Canelo vs Mbilli Props: Round Betting, Knockout Odds & Best Bets

• Canelo Alvarez faces Christian Mbilli in tonight’s WBC super middleweight title fight
• Neither fighter has ever been knocked down in 98 combined fights
• Check out my favorite Canelo vs Mbilli props, including round betting, knockout odds and best bets, below

It’s been 13 months since Canelo Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs) was stunned by Terence Crawford. The loss stripped Alvarez of his two championship belts, but he has the opportunity to get one of those back tonight when he faces Christian Mbilli for the WBC super middleweight title.

Mbilli enters the ring with with 29-0-1 record, and despite a title defense already on his resume, the challenger is a heavy -330 favorite to win back his belt. Betting on the moneyline is just one of the ways to attack this bout, and I’m looking to the props market to find the best value. Keep reading for my Canelo vs Mbilli props, including round betting, knockout odds and best bets, below.

Canelo vs Mbilli Knockout Odds

Odds as of Oct. 31 at bet365. New users can sign up with the bet365 promo code and get a bonus for tonight’s bout.

One of the more popular wagers tonight will undoubtedly be in the knockout props market. Canelo is +350 underdog to KO Mbilli, while the champ is +750 to knockout Alvarez. Neither fighter has ever been knocked out in 98 combined fights, while each of Canelo’s last eight fights have gone to the scorecards.

Mbilli meanwhile, sports a 80% career finishing rate, but just two of his last five bouts have ended inside the distance. Of the two fighters, he sports the more aggressive, powerful profile, but I’m looking elsewhere for my favorite Canelo vs Mbilli best bets.

Canelo vs Mbilli Round Betting

You can cash an enormous bet in this fight if things go off the rails. Personally, I expect the bout to go to the judges, but if you believe Canelo is washed, oddsmakers are offering +10000 on Mbilli to win in the first three rounds.

On the other side, if you like Alvarez to end the fight early, Round 8 or 9 are the two spots bettors are gravitating towards. Canelo to win in Round 8 or Round 9 each pays +2000 respectively, which are the shortest odds for any round-specific outcome in the fight.

Canelo vs Mbilli Props and Best Bets

• Either Fighter to be Knocked Down – No (-165 at bet365)
• Most Punches Landed – Mbilli (-120 at bet365)

My favorite bet tonight is the “No” on will either fighter be knocked down. Not only have Alvarez and Mbilli never been stopped in 98 combined fights, neither have ever hit the canvas. For Canelo, that makes perfect sense. He is a technician in the ring, and it’s hard enough to square him up, let alone knock him down.

Mbilli is much more hittable, especially given his aggressive style, but after what we’ve seen from Canelo over his last few fights, especially versus Crawford, it’s fair to wonder if he’s lost a step.

The champ is going to make Alvarez work, and Canelo is going to need to alter his strategy from his previous fight. Crawford repeatedly caught him flat footed, and Alvarez tried to counter with single punches, instead of relying on combinations to get back on the offensive.

At this stage of his career, Canelo isn’t interested in an all-out war, and he’s going to look to preserve energy and pick his spots. If he winds up winning this fight, it’s because he out-boxed Mbilli, not because he stood there and went blow for blow with him, which usually leads to knockdowns.

That leads me to my next favorite wager, which is Mbilli to land the most punches. Mbilli is known for charging forward and attacking his opponent, where Canelo is much more selective. The numbers absolutely bear this out, and it’s staggering the difference in not only punches thrown but punches landed by these two over the course of their careers.

Over his last five fights, Mbilli has averaged 78 punches thrown per round. For context, that’s 27 more than the average fighter within the division, and 43 more than Alvarez has thrown in his last 13 bouts. Of those 78 punches per round, 58 are considered power punches, and he’s landing an astounding 27 of those punches per round.

Between the power punches and jabs, which he uses at a much lower rate, Mbilli is averaging 30 punches landed per round. That’s just five short of the total amount of punches Canelo throws in a typical round. Even if Mbilli’s efficiency drops off a cliff, he should land enough punches to cash this bet.

The champ is going to consistently come forward, make the ring small and go to work. He knows he can’t outbox Alvarez, so his only path to victory is pressure and volume.