Northwestern vs Ohio State Prediction, Spread & Big Noon Picks

• Ohio State hosts Northwestern in the national Big Noon window on Fox
• Northwestern brings elite ball security and a +12 turnover differential to Columbus
• See below for my Northwestern vs Ohio State prediction, spread breakdown and Big Noon picks

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I’m always searching for a situational edge in the national Big Noon window. Northwestern (6-3) visits Ohio State (6-3) on Saturday, Nov. 14, at 12:00 PM ET, with Fox broadcasting this Big Ten matchup from Ohio Stadium.

Northwestern arrives as a heavy road underdog in a hostile environment. My focus is on whether the Wildcats can cover a large road spread while Ohio State looks to stay alive on the fringes of the CFP race.

Northwestern vs Ohio State Odds

Kalshi prices as of Nov. 13, 2:46 p.m. ET.

Kalshi has Ohio State at 83¢ to win, an implied probability of about 83%. Buying Northwestern +13.5 means taking NO on Ohio State winning by 14 or more at 49¢, which makes a two-touchdown Buckeyes win close to a coin flip. The Over 45.5 sits at 46¢, a slight discount to even.

Northwestern vs Ohio State Prediction

My Northwestern vs Ohio State prediction is an Ohio State win, but I’m not recommending the moneyline. At 83¢, that contract is far too expensive for my liking, so I’m treating the outright result as a forecast and looking to the spread and total for value.

Ohio State has the edge in raw production. The Buckeyes average 35.4 points and 467.9 total yards per game, with 2,882 passing yards this season. They also convert 44.1% of third downs and finish 87.8% of their red-zone trips. Keep in mind that a lot of this production was done with Julian Sayin at quarterback. Sayin missed the last two weeks, and the Buckeyes averaged 23.0 points per game en route to a pair of losses.

Northwestern is closer than the price suggests, though. The Wildcats average 30.8 points and 421.2 yards per game, lean on a ground game with 1,712 rushing yards and have committed just three turnovers all season. I expect Ohio State to win a game that stays within two scores.

Like Ohio State, Northwestern is without its QB1 in Aidan Chiles. West Virginia transfer Nicco Marchiol will get his second consecutive start. Marchiol had 223 total yards and one touchdown in Northwestern’s loss to Iowa last week.

One thing worth monitoring is Northwestern’s offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. Kelly was Ohio State’s offensive coordinator when the Buckeyes won the National Championship in 2024. I wouldn’t exactly call it a revenge game, but it is worth looking at that angle for Kelly.

Northwestern vs Ohio State Spread and Big Noon Picks

Big Noon Pick #1: Northwestern +13.5

Northwestern protects the football exceptionally well. The Wildcats have a +12 turnover differential, with just three giveaways against nine interceptions and six fumble recoveries on defense. That margin gives them a steady edge in field position.

Ohio State has committed 10 turnovers and sits at only +1. If Northwestern’s secondary forces a mistake or two, the Wildcats can shorten the game with their ground attack and keep the Northwestern vs Ohio State spread within reach. A 94.6% red-zone rate means their drives usually end in points.

Northwestern may struggle to match Ohio State’s scoring output if the Buckeyes strike early. The Wildcats lack the passing volume for a quick comeback, with 2,079 passing yards compared to Ohio State’s 2,882, not to mention having a backup suit up. A fast start from the hosts would test this number.

With both starting quarterbacks out, I expect the run games to take center stage with a sprinkling of Jeremiah Smith when Ohio State needs to throw the football.

Big Noon Pick #2: Over 45.5

Both offenses average more than 30 points per game, and their combined scoring averages sit well above 45.5. They also finish drives at elite rates, with Northwestern at 94.6% and Ohio State at 87.8% in the red zone.

I set my ceiling for the Over at 60¢, so 46¢ sits comfortably inside that range. Both teams also sustain drives, converting more than 42% of third downs, which supports steady scoring opportunities throughout the afternoon in Columbus.

Northwestern’s ball-control approach can drain the clock and limit total possessions. If the Wildcats grind out long drives and Ohio State’s defense stalls them short of the red zone, this game could finish in the low 40s despite both offenses’ season averages.

Both picks fit the same script: a competitive Ohio State win with enough scoring on both sides to clear the total. Compare platforms in our college football betting apps guide.

If I were to be pinned to a score prediction, I would take the Buckeyes 31-20.

Compare the latest college football odds before kickoff.