NFL Week 10 ATS Parlay – See the Best 2-Leg Teaser to Bet This Sunday

• Trying to consistently beat the sportsbooks against the spread is a tall task
• However, sportsbooks provide bettors the opportunity to select their own spread for every game
• See the two games where I have teased the spread and parlayed the ATS picks together for Week 10

Consistently trying to take down sportsbooks by betting against the spread can be incredibly difficult, especially if you don’t have access to great data, a ton of time to analyze the data, or have not kept up with all the latest injuries and news for each team. But even when you are investing time into all of those things, sportsbooks are just really good at setting spreads.

This is why I like to take advantage of the sportsbooks’ alternate spread offerings. We can choose whatever spread we want at all major sportsbooks, and then determine whether there’s still value based on the new odds with your alternate spread.

There are a number of games in Week 10 that fall into the ideal window for teasing, including the Bills at Jets and Rams at Cardinals, but most, including both of those matchups, show some concerning signs for the team you’d tease when diving into the predictive metrics I prefer. Instead, I have opted for two slightly untraditional favorites to tease for Sunday.

The Best NFL ATS Parlay for Week 10

I’m not moving the 49ers spread by many points, taking them from 3.5-point favorites down to 2.5, but it does get the spread through one of the key numbers in NFL spread betting. This is why the odds still go from the standard -110 in spread betting to -170. I’m teasing the Jaguars, on the other hand, by eight points, which gets me through 3 and 7.

If you wanted to improve your potential payout on this parlay, you could just tease the Jags down to -6.5, getting you through 7. But I’m going all the way to 2.5 because I suspect there may be some growing pains as their defense learns to play together following their three additions ahead of the trade deadline earlier this week. If you’re sticking with the ATS parlay as I have it, the best odds of -106 can be found at theScore Bet.

Here’s why I love each of these teams to cover their new teased spreads.

Parlay Leg #1: 49ers -2.5

The first leg of my ATS parlay for Week 10 is the 49ers teased slightly from -3.5 to -2.5, getting through the key number of 3. I absolutely love this pick and was debating giving up even more points for better odds.

The 49ers hold clear advantages over their Week 10 opponent, the Dallas Cowboys, in all five of the metrics I concern myself with the most. But they show massive advantages in three of them:

1. Success Rate Diff: 49ers +8.0%
2. Red Zone TD Gap: 49ers +32.8%
3. Explosive Play Diff: 49ers +8.5%

The 49ers have been very good on both sides of the ball this season, while the Cowboys can only say that about their offense. Dallas’ defense has been one of the worst in the league, leading to the massive 8% discrepancy in success rate differential between the two teams, which surpasses my ideal threshold of a 6%+ advantage.

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While I don’t expect San Francisco’s defense to completely shutdown the Cowboys’ passing attack, the other significant advantage that I foresee playing a major role in this game is the red zone touchdown gap. The 49ers are very efficient when they reach the red zone, scoring a touchdown on an incredible 84.6% of their drives, which leads the league by a fair bit – the next-best is 11.9% lower. They won’t face much resistance on Sunday either, as the Cowboys allow a TD on 67.6% of their opponents’ red zone drives, the eighth-worst mark in the league.

Dallas is pretty good at finishing their red zone drives in the endzone as well, scoring TDs on 71.4% of their red zone drives, but the 49ers have done a good job minimizing the damage when their defense bends. San Francisco only allows a touchdown on 48% of their opponents’ red zone drives, the ninth-best in the NFL.

I believe the combination of extreme efficiency and the near certainty of getting seven points, instead of just three, will ensure the 49ers not only win this game, but do so by at least a field goal.

Parlay Leg #2: Jaguars -2.5

The second leg of my favorite parlay for Week 10 is the Jaguars -2.5. I teased this spread way down from 10.5, getting through both 7 and 3 – not to mention 10 being a relevant number as well.

While the Titans have shown some signs of life lately, the Jaguars have clearly been the superior team all season, which shows by them holding the advantage in all five metrics I look to for predicting ATS covers, including notable advantages in three of them:

1. +3.28 advantage in net pass yards per attempt
2. +36.6% advantage in red zone touchdown gap
3. +7.1% advantage in explosive play differential

The Titans have been one of the league’s worst passing offenses this season, ranking 28th in passing yards and 26th in net yards per attempt, and they’ll be without Carnell Tate in Week 10 as well. On top of that, they can’t defend through the air either. They allow 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, fourth-worst in the NFL, and have given up the second-most passing yards despite only seeing the 19th-most pass attempts against them.

The Jaguars, on the other hand, have been very efficient when putting the ball in the air, averaging 7.6 net yards per attempt, good for second-best in the NFL. While they have struggled a little to defend the pass, ranking 22nd in net yards allowed per attempt, the Titans don’t have the ability to take advantage.

Similar to the first pick above, I suspect the Jaguars being able to really run up the margin thanks to the red zone touchdown gap advantage they hold. Jacksonville has allowed touchdowns on just 40.9% of their opponents’ red zone drives, the fourth-best in the league, and the Titans only punch the ball into the endzone on 52.2% of their own red zone drives (24th). When you flip the teams, it’s a different story – Jacksonville is pretty good at finishing their red zone drives with seven points (10th-best), while the Titans are mediocre at holding teams out of the endzone (19th).

And as the Titans fall behind, the difference in net pass yards per attempt will really start to show itself.